[okie01]

It is evident that one key to this situation is Hezbollah. Will an independent Lebanon suit their Iranian masters? It doesn't appear that way. Can they do anything about it other than that traditional Lebanese resort, blowing holes in the place? I suspect we're about to find out.

From recent actions, it appears that Iran is anxious about getting Syria to confirm its status as an ally.

Syria and Assad are now between a sharply pointed rock and a very hard place. There are choices to be made. And none of them are terribly good.

Assad can assure his survival in the short-term only by pulling up stakes in Lebanon and scatting right back to his pappy's farm. And asking, nicely, what he can do for us.

At that, he risks Iran and Hezbollah's wrath, along with Baathist ire. He runs the very high risk of being assassinated.

If he chooses to start shooting in Lebanon, he wins no friends...and gains a boatload of enemies. All without a single friendly border...

One way or the other, Assad is going down -- without ever having gained Axis of Evil status.

Do we have a carrier in the Eastern Med? Or one that can be there in short order?

[okie01]

Lebanon ping.

[Billthedrill]

Do we have a carrier in the Eastern Med?

That'd be Sixth Fleet's area. Oh, my yes. Fleet average is 175 aircraft... I think the flag's on LaSalle but I might be wrong...

[Do not dub me shapka broham]

I bet he wishes he were in his late brother Basil's place, right now.

Don't ya think?

:)

-good times, G.J.P.(Jr.)

[dirtboy]

One way or the other, Assad is going down -- without ever having gained Axis of Evil status.

I can think of one scenario that can save Assad - that he manages to provoke a low-grade conflict with Israel. That would make Iran and the rest of the Arab world rally behind him, at least for the short term. So we need to keep an eye on the Golan Heights.