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As soon as the Oslo committee issued its Nobel Peace Prize to President Barack Obama, an expected debate raged in America about the legitimacy of such a move so very early in a U.S. presidential term. The debate soon will espouse the dividing lines between domestic and foreign policy issues and, in a few weeks, will die out under the awe of new unfolding events. What will remain are future policy debates that will refer to one of the world's most prestigious awards as a fact in international relations. Months and few short years from now, supporters of the "new...

In a 12 minutes address on audio tape, Al Qaeda chief Osama bin Laden, spoke to the American people on the eighth anniversary of 9/11. The tape was produced by the as-Sahab propaganda arm of the terror group and posted on various Jihadists forums last night. His address, directed "to the American People," asserted that the main reason for the Al Qaeda attacks on New York and Washington on September 11, 2001, was US support for Israel as well as “some other injustices.” Interestingly Osama claimed the war between the two "nations" i.e. the American nation and the Islamic "Umma,"...

.......... Stealth analysis “Saifullah” of North Carolina spent his 20s and 30s (or so we know) in his rural home. His neighbors saw him walking the dog and never heard him threatening anyone, per the media reports. By popular American standards he would be a regular guy. But by jihadi doctrine he was performing taqiyya. Combatants “in the path of Allah,” as instructed by ideologues to “fake” normalcy, and lie if needed, about their real beliefs so that the deception of the enemy is full. The question is how many other American “Saifullahs” are practicing taqiyya and since when? Are...

With shock and malaise, Americans are discovering that their country is penetrated by jihadi terrorists, particularly those we call "homegrown." Over the past few months, several alarming cases have been revealed by law enforcement. Not only the frequency of these revelations but also the type of jihadi cells are teaching the public that something very troubling is happening within the homeland: the surge of a threat deserving a greater attention than the current attitude dispensed by the administration. The arrest of Daniel Patrick Boyd, a married 39-year-old, his two sons, and four other “jihadis” in a rural area south of...

Another issue raised by President Barack Obama during his July 11 speech at Accra is the “relative” notion of democracy. In contrast with the previous administration’s call for a US-backing for the “spread of democracy,” Obama underlined that “America will not seek to impose any system of government on any other nation. The essential truth of democracy is that each nation determines its own destiny.” In fact, the difference between the previous and the current US approach is not about the “role,” as no one in Washington’s government has had any project to “impose” democracy, or specific institutions. The George...

Over the past months, the narrative of Washington's "new direction" in world affairs blurred the clarity of the confrontation with the terror forces worldwide. Are we at conflict with a global threat? The administration, insisting on treating the issue locally, claimed otherwise. But during President Barack Obama’s July 11 speech in Accra, he said that "when there's a genocide in Darfur or terrorists in Somalia, these are not simply African problems — they are global security challenges, and they demand a global response." This zigzag between local and global risk is confusing not only to the public but to strategists...

In a briefing organized in Congress in July of 2007, I submitted a plan to the U.S. House Caucus on Counter Terrorism called "Freedom lines" suggesting a second phase in the American military campaign in Iraq. This plan was suggested as of 2004. After having analyzed the long term goals of al Qaeda and the Iranian regime in Iraq and discussed them with CENTCOM officials and National Defense University professors, the proposed plan projected a rapid training and expansion of the Iraqi armed forces followed by a gradual redeployment of U.S. and Coalition forces out of the cities and urban...

Why did the Grand Ayatollah Khamenei decide to suppress demonstrations and not order a reorganization of new elections to solve the crisis? What is the analysis inside the Khamanei/Ahmedinijad “war room”? Based on several assessments, it appears that the regime feels the protest movement is too wide and too determined to allow it to expand further. The ayatollahs in charge of the “revolution” and the top commanders of the Revolutionary Guards as well as their financial operatives fear a popular shift inside Iran’s population along the magnitude of East Europe’s revolution against Soviet rule. The most cataclysmic parallel would be...

Perhaps the most challenging task for analysts and commentators to accomplish after having listen to President Obama's speech in Cairo (addressed to the "Muslim World") is to know how to read it, understand the links between the points he made, capture the arguments inserted by his speech writers and thus analyze the text as a major policy change since 9/11. In short, I would recommend for readers to establish a "map of the speech" before venturing to its various exotic suggestions and hints. Evidently, each political constituency in America, the region and the international community has its priorities and will jump to the part it...

A successful counter-terrorism operation led by the FBI and the New York City Police Department ended with the arrest of four New York City men in connection with plots to bomb Jewish synagogues and gun down military planes in upstate areas. ———— Today’s announcement of the foiled terror plot is a stark reminder that we are still under attack — eight years after the September 11 massacres. And if we are under attack, it means that we are still at war, a real one, not a “man-made disaster.” ————- According to Police Commissioner Raymond Kelly the suspects, identified as James...

As the U.S. administration and its allies are devising a new strategy for the next steps in Afghanistan, the jihadists have already begun their next move — but this time it’s inside Pakistan. As I’ve written over the past few months, we need to look at Afghanistan, Pakistan and India as one regional battlefield where the “other side” is coordinating strategically, acting methodically and for sure beating the international coalition in speed. If Washington and its allies fail to see the big picture in the fight against the Taliban and Al Qaeda, which unfortunately may be the case now, the...

Most of the media discussion about piracy in the Gulf of Aden has drifted understandably towards the sensational part of the story: how are the Pirates able to roam the Ocean? Is paying them ransom a better option than to engage them militarily? Last but not least, will a military intervention against the Pirates worsen the situation; will it lead to a massive escalation in Somalia and a Vietnam like quagmire for many years to come? The armed bands on the waters are still roaming the seas of Aden and the Indian Ocean across from Somalia and Kenya, are not...

Al Jazeera television is known for airing Islamic extremist videos and even hosted an on-air birthday celebration for convicted Lebanese terrorist Samir Kuntar who murdered four Israelis in 1979. "It is a professional institution but it is a militant institution that wants to convey an ideological Jihadi message," said Walid Phares, a terrorism analyst for FOX News. Critics charge that the Jihadist message now is making its way to public broadcasting in America.

The British government’s announcement to open a dialogue with “the political wing of Hizballah” is most troubling. In a statement to a parliamentary committee, Bill Rammell, the British foreign office’s minister for Middle East affairs, rationalized the decision on the grounds of what his office perceives to be “more positive developments within Lebanon.” This British declaration underscores a pervasive failure to properly understand the structure of the Iranian-backed terrorist organization. At worst, the call to distinguish between the group's political and military wings (in terms of decision-making) may be driven by a desire to construct imaginary facts for diplomatic and...

Since the advent of Hafez al-Assad's dictatorship in Damascus in 1971, Syria's role in the region, and particularly in Lebanon, has been described in two diametrically opposing narratives. The difference between these two narratives is so wide that one of them has to be wrong. The school of engagement insists on Assad's unavoidable role as a pacifier in the region. To many diplomats, experts, and policy makers in the West —including paradoxically in Israel and the United States—the Alawite regime is seen as a stabilizing force that can absorb radicals and defuse a regional war. Yet, it is almost impossible...

As we celebrate the Valentine's Day just passed, it's important to note the emergence of an eternally verified reality: Love is the strongest human force fighting against terrorism and jihad. "Al Gharam mamn’uh, al Gharam kufr," screamed the self-declared cleric in al-Ansar’s chat room this Friday. “Love is forbidden, love is infidel” -- said the online fatwa about the “legitimacy of loving and being in love.” A weekend before Valentine's Day, jihadist souls were not questioning the “commercialization” of romance, but inquiring about the ban on “being in love.” The “scholars” said human love is evil. The simple feeling of...

With the end of the Bush presidency in sight, it’s time to take stock of the War on Terror, something that didn’t begin with George W. Bush but which entered the American collective consciousness on his watch. So, where are we now, as we get ready to usher in a new era with a new president? The measurement of the successes and failures under the Bush Administration isn’t a simple matter of calculus. Many questions make the final assessment complex and inextricable. Here are few examples: Did the jihadi war against America begin on September 11, 2001? Of course not!...

It may be too early to discuss both a comprehensive solution for the future of a Palestinian state and to anticipate an end to the global War on Terror at the same time but here goes. In any discussion of peace in the Middle East it’s important to remember the intentions of the Iranian and Syrian regimes and their proxy, Hezbollah when we think about saving the civilian population of Gaza from war, shielding the Israeli populations from rockets and avoiding an escalation of violence that could engulf the entire region. The Iranian and Syrian regimes and their ally Hezbollah...

Israeli raids on Hamas' infrastructure, along with troop movements around Gaza and the shelling of Israel by that organization, are troubling but certainly not surprising. Sadly, it's not the first time we've seen these images. Tragically, seven years after September 11 they seem to connect with similar bloodshed in Mosul, Kabul and Mumbai. Even if both sides in the current Gaza conflict insist that their confrontation is at the center of the world, in reality it isn't. Car bombs and missiles in Beirut, Baghdad and Islamabad are all horrifying. There is no "top horror" anymore, even in the never-ending cycle...

An intelligence assessment, the "Internal Homeland Security Threat Assessment for the years 2008-2013, obtained by the Associated Press projected several "dramatic" developments. Among these projections that terrorism directed against the US will "continue to be driven by driven by instability in the Middle East and Africa." The report asserted that WMD attacks "could be carried out against America" but then added that "these threats are also the most unlikely because it is so difficult for al-Qaida and similar groups to acquire the materials needed to carry out such plots." The report reasserts a number of predictions made before and noted...

As I observed the immediate aftermath of the shoe throwing incident in Baghdad, I noted that the most striking effect occurred among the Western public, and particularly within the United States. Commentators and regular citizens were asking themselves again, seven years later, “why do they hate us?” missing one more time the fact that this particular violent expression, far from being a unique emotional reaction by one individual, is part of a war of ideas; it is a continuous organized confrontation over the future of the region. In short, this was another form of Jihadism, one I am coining now...

The Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC), an association of the world's Islamic states, is pushing the United Nations to outlaw "defamation" of religion in general, and of one religion in particular. My remarks that follow are based on 27 years of researching in the field of international relations and conflicts, and on a decade of teaching Religions and World Politics. Since I published my first book in Arabic in 1979, where I addressed the issue of relationships between civilizations and cultural blocs worldwide, I have had the opportunity to publish ten books and hundreds of articles focusing on the rise...

Last Thursday’s order by a federal judge to release five Algerian detainees from Guantanamo Bay prison reopens the complex debate about the principle of holding prisoners of war during wartime. But, and this may be even more important, it also reopens the debate inside the three branches of government in the United States over whether or not our nation is actually at war. The case at hand will certainly be discussed by legal specialists on both sides of the debate. Here is the chain of legal events that will be scrutinized: The first “civilian court” ruling -– for terrorism suspects...

How will Obama deal with this threat? We have Carter II in the making.

South Ossetia: The perfect wrong war By Walid Phares By now, days after Georgian forces stormed the capital of south Ossetia and Russian units counter attacked across the breaking away province and beyond; a devastating war has spread across the Caucasus causing death, destruction and displacement of populations. All wars are terrible -- even the legitimate ones where country, freedom and survival at are at stake. But this war is particularly unnecessary, could have been avoided and above all is wrong; in fact I call it the perfect wrong war. Unfortunately, when battles are raging with tanks, artillery, bombs and...

In an article published in the Washington Post on Friday May 30, CIA Director Michael V. Hayden is quoted as portraying al Qaeda movement as "essentially defeated in Iraq and Saudi Arabia and on the defensive throughout much of the rest of the world, including in its presumed haven along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border." The article said Hayden asserts that: "Osama bin Laden is losing the battle for hearts and minds in the Islamic world and has largely forfeited his ability to exploit the Iraq war to recruit adherents." More importantly, the article quotes the chief intelligence declaring a "near strategic...

The Winning Side of the Iraq Campaign by Walid Phares In his latest assessment of the state of the campaign in Iraq President Bush drew strategic assertions regarding the measurement of success and the risks of failure on that battlefield, in what we can coin as the next stage in the confrontation against the forces of terror in the region. The successful surge Practically the military surge has denied al-Qaeda and the Mahdi militia the realization of their current objectives. So far al-Qaeda wasn’t able to create an "Emirate" in the Sunni triangle, nor even to reconstitute a Fallujah-like enclave:...

Looking at the President's Assessment of the Iraq Campaign By Walid Phares April 1, 2008 President Bush's March 27 assessment of the state of the war in Iraq raised important strategic assertions that warrant greater attention from the public and the defense and national security sectors. The principles announced by the president with regard to the measurement of success and the risks of failure on the Iraqi battlefield constitute a series of components of what I would coin as the next stage in the confrontation against the forces of terror in the region. The surge's success The 2007-2008 military surge...

In an audiotape posted on Internet, Osama Bin Laden threatened Europe with punishment because of its “negligence in spite of the opportunity presented to take the necessary measures” to stop the republishing of the Danish cartoons. It also menaced the Vatican with retribution for an alleged role in incitement "against religion." This al Qaeda warning would've been normal in Salafi Jihad logic. This radical movement obviously considers the drawings as an ultimate insult to Muslims and would unleash extreme violence in retaliation. Actually one would've expected al Qaeda to strike back “for the cartoons offense” long time ago. In fact,...

Published: March 18, 2008 ‘The Confrontation: Winning the War Against Future Jihad’ – The New Book from Dr. Walid PharesThe Editors Dr. Walid Phares, the Director of the Future of Terrorism Project at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, is a respected author whose latest book is available to the public today. Titled The Confrontation: Winning the War Against Future Jihad, Dr. Phares, who has been acclaimed by peers as the “one who can best understand the minds of the Jihadists,” will finally tell us what he thinks should be done “globally” about the threat posed by Jihad. His first two...

Chad's future Taliban enters capital while the West is asleep The Transatlantic Conservative 3 February 2008 With the so called "rebel" attack on N'Djamena it becomes increasingly clear that the jihadist government and militia of Sudan expand their operations to neighboring Chad. Saudi-Arabia, Syria and Iran back the hardliners in Khartoum. The racist genocidal ethnic cleansing policies of the Arab muslim tribes in power in the Sudanese capital will can't be stopped by UN or EUFOR intervention troops anymore. Their only possible base of operations against the jihadis from Sudan WAS Chad. Chad is another piece of the map of...

With the selection of the next US President bound to affect the very survival of the American people, all the old rules of politics and elections are out the window.

The Best Person for the Job by Walid Phares, Ph.D. When it comes to US Presidential elections, the post 9/11 era has changed the rules of engagement for national security experts and for those who can read the Jihadists’ minds. While the counterterrorism community should let the voters chose their chief executive first, then later offer expert advice to the President, unfortunately, the world has changed. Indeed, since the 9/11 and the engagement of the nation in the war with Jihadism, the selection of the US President can fundamentally affect the very survival of the American people. Whoever occupies the...

The Candidate Who Can See the Enemy, Can Defeat It by Walid Phares The post 9/11 era has changed the rules of engagement for national security experts and for those who can read the mind of the Jihadists, when it comes to US Presidential elections. While the principle was that the counter Terrorism community should let the voters chose their candidates and select their chief executive first, then offer the expert advice to the President later, unfortunately for that principle, things have changed. Indeed, since the attacks against New York and Washington and the engagement of the nation in the...

Bhutto’s Murder: Al Qaeda’s Security BlanketWalid Phares Former Pakistani Prime Minster Benazir Bhutto was murdered by the combined forces of Jihadism in Pakistan because of her potential actions in that country. In short, Jihadists executed her to preempt her future war of ideas. This is the bottom line, and here is why. The long-term plan of the Taliban and al Qaeda in Afghanistan during the 1990s was to eventually spread to Pakistan and seize power and ultimately, after 1999, to seize Pakistan’s nukes, too. Miscalculating on September 11th, Osama bin Laden lost Kabul and the Jihadi war room crossed over to their...

The conflict we call the War on Terror still continues at the end of 2007 and all indications are that its battlefields are expected to spread further, and escalate, in the upcoming year. The following is a global assessment of the confrontation that has taken place since 2001, though the systematic war waged by the Jihadi forces against democracies and the free world began at least a decade before 9/11. This evaluation isn't comprehensive or definitive, but a collection of observations related to major benchmarks, directions and projections. The main powers and allies involved in the War on Terror still...

The conflict we call the War on Terror still continues at the end of 2007 and all indications are that its battlefields are expected to spread further, and escalate, in the upcoming year. The following is a global assessment of the confrontation that has taken place since 2001, though the systematic war waged by the Jihadi forces against democracies and the free world began at least a decade before 9/11. This evaluation isn't comprehensive or definitive, but a collection of observations related to major benchmarks, directions and projections. Global cohesion lacking The main powers and allies involved in the War...

The release to the US Congress of the NIE Iranian threat report has unleashed a wave of discussions streaming directly into the debate about the war on terror. From there, obviously, the ripple effects of the findings – plus their politicization – are feeding the critics of the War in Iraq; but more importantly, impacting both the friends and the foes of the United States, including principally the Iranian regime. Basically, Americans and their allies are faced with a new assertion, created by this intelligence estimate, that the decision makers in Tehran had already abandoned their nuclear military strategy as...

Future Jihad: How Bin Laden Outsmarts the US with al Qaeda Propaganda Walid Phares What is interesting about the latest audio message of Usama Bin Laden, carried by al Jazeera, is its delayed argument. Strangely he is trying to convince the Europeans - seven years later - that they are wrong to have followed the United States into Afghanistan. Why? In his speech - irrespective of the ritual investigative questions regarding its location, technology and other details - the central issue appears to be his growing concern with the European role in Afghanistan, and perhaps because of it, the potential...

The oddest of all factional relationships is the open alliance between the Jihadists and the so-called "antiwar" neo-Left movement in the West. The jumble of causes thrown together is mind-bending: globalization hobnobs with the caliphate, class struggle with Wahabism, proletariat with infidels, and North Korea with Palestine. While still shedding each others' blood, the Reds (neo-Left) and the Dark Greens (Islamists) are conducting a joint offensive against both democracy-pushing America and the democracy-craving Middle East. They are not letting old or new grudges get in their way. The Wahabis fiercely fought the Soviet Communists in Afghanistan; the Muslim Brotherhood and...

America has never engaged in a conflict with deeper roots in the past. Today’s terrorists see the world with different eyes and minds from all Americans – and from most communities worldwide. To fully understand their mindset, we must learn about the terrorists’ history and their reading of history. The future of U.S. national security, international relations, and world stability lies in the hands of those who are first to learn about the terrorists’ relevant history. That is the key to their code, but it is not a secret one; it was simply hidden for too long by our own...

Iran's Plan for Iraq   By Walid PharesWorld Defense Review | Monday, September 10, 2007 [Part one of a series on "Freedom Lines," adapted from seminars conducted for the U.S. House of Representatives' Caucus on Counter Terrorism, summer 2007]In March 2003, the United States made a strategic decision to send troops into Iraq and defeat the Saddam Hussein regime militarily. This decision is still being debated nationwide and internationally as to its legitimacy and rationality.One camp claims Washington didn't have a right to change the regime and engage in an armed confrontation with Iraqis. Another camp says Saddam was...

Six years after 9/11, the mainstream reading of the War on Terror still circles around the essence of the conflict. Two young men indicted for charges of possession of explosives aren't yet perceived as part of an Urban Jihadist campaign inside the United States, despite the fact that a number of cells and of individuals have been arrested over the past years, all linked to Jihadism. Ahmed Abdellatif Sherif Mohamed, 24 and Youssef Samir Megahed (in Egyptian accent it reads “Mujahid”) 21, are affiliated with South Florida University in Tampa. As one reviews all news reporting (until this day), no...

No matter what its historical relevance or context, the political and legal dimensions of historical jihad cannot be played out in the international or public policy affairs of modern society. FSM Contributing Editor Dr. Walid Phares explains why modern Jihad is unquestionably against the law. ____________________________________________ Why Military Jihad in Modern Times Is Illegal By Walid Phares One of the strangest, but not unexpected, battles of words and ideologies is over the claims made about the Muslim perception of jihad and Jihadism and their impact on public speech. Although there are various clashes on this level, it is appropriate here...

Western apologist literature has convinced and confused readers, including those in America’s Defense intelligentsia, that Jihad is not as lethal as it is. FSM Contributing Editor Dr. Walid Phares opens our eyes to the stunning successes of this enemy’s disinformation campaigns. For full article see: http://www.familysecuritymatters.org/terrorism.php?id=1157956

The current media rush to interpret what the US Government is releasing in terms of potential infiltration by an al Qaeda cell (or cells) to strike this summer is warranted but still unfocused. ABC News and AP have reported new official "concerns" of an attack on the US homeland this summer. ABC specified that (according to its sources) the Terrorists intend to attack a Government facility. Furthermore, as reported widely in the press, "new intelligence suggests a small al Qaeda cell is on its way to the US, or may already be here." The report added that the White House...

With each revelation made in Britain and in the West about a foiled plot or after an actual attack, a shower of questions is raised within the mainstream media, some of which contradict the other. The June 29 British success in averting two (maybe more) car bombs in London has also been accompanied by an endless series of issues, revealing among other things how the counterterrorism culture within Western democracies is still lacking in terms of cohesiveness. By comparison with previous conflicts, the analytical behavior of the global war on terror deserves a serious review. Following are a few questions...

Expert: Britain Is Jihad Central NewsMax.com July 1, 2007 "Britain is at War with the Jihadists, that's the bottom line" says Dr. Walid Phares. British officials "need to cope with the reality that they are the target of a Jihad war," Dr. Phares told Jack Riccardi on San Antonio's KTSA Saturday. Dr. Phares, director of the Future Terrorism Project at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, a visiting fellow at the European Foundation for Democracy and several books on the Islamic jihad against the West including the most recent "Future Jihad," said that Britain "is one of the most...

Car Bomb Jihad By Dr. Walid Phares FrontPageMagazine.com | July 2, 2007British authorities are to be commended for successfully averting two (maybe more) car bomb attacks in London last week. At the same time, much of the reaction of Britain’s counter-terrorism community reveals that the country is not wholly prepared to deal with the terrorism threat. Let's begin with the contradictory statements made by British authorities after the car bombs had been identified. On one hand, Britain’s new home secretary, Jacqui Smith, said after an emergency meeting of top officials that “we are currently facing the most serious and sustained threat...

In this interview, FSM Contributing Editor Walid Phares discusses the “War of Ideas.” Walid warns us; the West is not winning against radical Islam’s intent upon a new Caliphate stretching from China to Morocco. Read how he envisions defeating the new fascism that we face. Question Period: War of the Worlds By Walid Phares Walid Phares is a Lebanese-American historian who has just released his sixth book, The War of Ideas: Jihadism versus Democracy. He is a senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies in Washington and a visiting fellow with the European Foundation for Democracies in...