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Here is my analysis of the seemingly rapidly-developing situation with Syria. First a timeline:

Feb. 14: Syria has former Lebanese PM Hariri assassinated.

Feb. 22: A tape is televised, showing a Syrian intelligence operative intimately involved in the Iraqi insurgency. He admits that the insurgency is a 100% Syrian operation (which is essentially true, although he doesn't mention the source of the money which pays for the insurgency - Iran).

Feb. 25: Either Islamic Jihad or Hezbollah has a suicide bomber detonate himself in Tel Aviv, for the first bombing in the region since the first week of November, 2004. The bombing was ordered by Syria. The political results are not yet clear; but it has definitely put a strain on the emerging democracy in Palestine, and has put PM Mahmoud Abbas to the biggest test he has faced - will he truly crack down on the terrorists, or continue negiotiating with them?

Feb. 26: Israel publically blames Syria for the bombing, and warns of the potential for an attack on Syria in the near future.

Feb. 27: Syria hands over Saddam's half-brother, who is involved in supporting the insurgency in Iraq from Syria.

American senior State Department official tells Syria to get its troops out of Lebanon ASAP.

It's pretty obvious what's going on here. The pressure on Syria has been ramping up since Hariri's assassination, by virtue of their own past actions. They are basically surrounded by their accusers - Iraq from the east, Lebanon to the west, and Israel to the southwest. Well, not quite surrounded, but you get the idea. Everything keeps blowing up in their face.

So what does Assad and Co. do?

They had over some expendable resources. I'm sure Syria can make do without Saddam's half-brother. They are just trying to keep people from getting too hostile.

It may sound good, but they really haven't done much. If they assauge our disgust for them, then getting out of Lebanon is just the start. Once they do that, then they have to shut down the insurgency. Once they do that, then maybe we'll talk.

Otherwise, it's bombs away in a few months.