So what do you do for a living?
I've given my occupation. I develop real estate. I have to actually go out and get this money we are talking about. It helps to know when folks are opining on FR financial threads.
I'm an upsider.
Are Richard and the goldbugs still around?
Been awhile since I looked at a financial thread here.
I pinged two freepers who know me off this forum and can vouch I am who I claim.
I'm not questioning you but your prespectives are pretty firm and I wondered what real world knowledge you have to back it up. Are you a banker or CPA or stockbroker.
I disagree about Pulte...no matter their construction loans being short term ...a downturn in new home construction slams their topline and their overhead though trimmed will not disappear..overhead is something which most contractors have in spades....not to mention all that land they will have bought to maybe spend the money to rezone and then sit there paying increased preoperty taxes on while they can't build or move new homes.
They have more exposure than just construction loans. I have been involved as an investor in buying low density zoned land and getting a higher density rezoning and then reselling the property to Phillips which was recently bought by Beazer....my limited experience there.
But I do not nor ever have built houses. I can tell you a lot though about warehouses, self storage, boat and RV parks and my favorite...high end car washes.
I borrow money as sole owner or LLC or (S) corp depending on the deal.
I also know a little about merchant fleet ownership and placer mining but that was a long time ago.
I was raised as a 4th generation General Contractor but eschewed that course for adventure and investments.
I have a BA in Poli Sci which is btw...BS...100%
So, that's my foundation to opine here.
oh yeah...I daytraded for a few years...had fun but about killed me....best for the 20 somethings...
many here seem to be speculating on either a housing boom or mortage boom burst and where that leads and how to profit.
well, is the past is any key....go buy those very homes after the burst, cause they will go back up.
As for their vulnerability to a downturn, of course it would hurt their business. But they run off their inventory of houses with 6 months in ordinary times. If that doubles, so what? This isn't a power plant or office building type thing, where the asset only comes back to you over 25 or 30 years. Do they own land, sure, but typically they hold it under options to buy until they are ready to sell units. They have something like $4 billion principle value in land options they can exercise or pass on. Lots of developers go in hock up to their eyeballs at the top of hot real estate markets, and go bust. I just don't expect them to be one of them (remotely).
As for what I do, these days I am a research analyst for a software company that does science and technology stuff (math, formal modeling tools, etc). In the nineties I did practical finance, as an investment advisor. I got clients out before the bubble popped and left finance for scientific software. (REITs were part of the cash-out strategy for some of them). Before that I was in grad school.