Posted on 03/05/2005 9:31:55 AM PST by srm913
America sees China as next big threat `It's an open secret in Washington'
STEPHEN HANDELMAN
NEW YORK—If you ask a U.S. White House official or any of Washington's senior intelligence analysts what they consider to be the greatest long-term threat to U.S. stability, the answer might surprise anyone expecting to hear the by now traditional apocalyptic warnings about global terrorism.
The real danger, they would say, is China.
"It's an open secret in Washington," says Kishore Mahbubani, who was Singapore's veteran ambassador to the United Nations until last year. "The emergence of China as a potential rival is considered the next big threat to the U.S. — and China knows this, too."
China's had "superpower-in-waiting" status — partly as a function of the sheer size of its geographical reach, population (1.2 billion and growing) and the dramatic transformation of its economy — since the Cold War ended. But the slow, steady expansion of its military force has tipped the balance for anxious Washington geo-strategists.
It explains the bitter quarrel surfacing this month between the U.S. and Europe over whether to lift a ban on sales of military technology to China imposed more than 15 years ago, in response to the 1989 Tiananmen massacre. The U.S. wants arms sanctions to remain; the Europeans want sales to resume.
The quarrel is more serious than the transatlantic fireworks over Iraq. The Americans say the Chinese military build-up is already the most extensive in the world. They single out plans to build 23 amphibious assault ships, 13 attack submarines, and other upgrades in the navy and air force.
The Europeans agree that Chinese military expansion is worrisome; but they point out that blocking foreign technology sales will have only a marginal impact. Besides, they argue, keeping the Tiananmen-era ban in place because of a perceived new threat diminishes the credibility of sanctions.
Targeted countries will believe that nothing they do will ever get them off the hook, so why bother to pay attention? (Saddam Hussein's lackeys used to argue the same thing.)
But the U.S. has a point. China's military transformation, combined with its increasingly aggressive trade policies, is creating a new power dynamic in a region already anxious about rising Chinese influence from Japan to Taiwan.
And unchecked, China is likely to travel further toward projecting its military and economic power in the 21st century. U.S. Vice-Admiral Lowell E. Jacoby, in testimony before the U.S. Senate, predicted Chinese nuclear-tipped missiles will soon be "capable of targeting U.S. and allied military installations" in the region — and, by 2015, on the North American continent.
Skeptics argue that the Chinese "threat" is a fantasy. China historically has been loath to extend its influence beyond its region. The irony, however, is that as Beijing grows increasingly suspicious of Western intentions, it may back into a role as a rival, or hostile, superpower.
"Anywhere you go in China, officials believe 100 per cent that the U.S. bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade during the Balkans war was deliberate," reports Mahbubani, who identifies the perception gap in his just-published book, Beyond the Age of Innocence: Rebuilding Trust Between America and the World.
As the title suggests, Mahbubani believes the U.S. needs to mollify fears about its own intentions — particularly in the emerging giants of China and India. The potential for dangerously crossed signals, he warned in New York recently, is far greater than the rivalry between Islam and the West.
"The U.S. needs to do much more to change its image overseas," says Mahbubani. That's good advice. Both the Chinese military expansion and the heated-up quarrel between Europe and Washington (Congress threatened this week to restrict technology sales to Europe) offer a way to put Ottawa's missile defence decision last week in context.
The critics who successfully lobbied for opting out of North American missile defence are congratulating themselves for keeping Canada out of a U.S. "space weapons" program and thereby avoid endorsement of Washington's terrorism-fixated foreign policy.
In fact, they may have knocked Canada out of the policy-making loop regarding Washington's deepest concern — of which the missiles represent just one strategic element: the struggle to cope with growing Chinese military and economic competition in the Western Hemisphere.
After the missile decision, Canada's ability to influence Washington over continental security issues, and by extension allow its voice to be heard on the Great China Question, may now have decreased.
That should bother anyone fearful for Canadian sovereignty.
ping
The easiest solution: Nuclear Japan. Australia, too, for good measure.
I agree. We can handle the Islamofascists one more time, but China -- that's a biggie. However, China has always been too big to be efficiently governed and I would not be surprised to see it either fragment or collapse internally.
If they mess with President Bush they'll come to understand the meaning of "Bull in a China shop."
I agree with this assessment. China has always wanted to rule the world. In fact, it's been part of their national character since it became a nation centuries ago.
Speaking of centuries ago, there was a three-pronged conflict of civilations back while the Holy Roman Empire was still in existance. The three civilizations were the Christian-influenced (then lead by Europe), the Islamic nations (lead by Turkey), and the Far East (lead by China). The Far East had an interesting strategy--wait while the Western and Islamic civilizations wore each other out in military conflict, seeking gradual control of their governments through economic dependence, and using the trade revenues to build up their own military and infrastructure.
There truly is nothing new under the sun.
Well, duh. Remember, way back before 911 distracted us, they had our spy plane and wouldn't give it back?
Even Napoleon knew to let that dragoon sleep. I think our grandchildren will curse us for trying to bring China into the 21st century.
We will need a 'wrap-around' alliance - with Britain, Russia, Japan and Australia -
I think we've all long known the day will come...
BTW, maybe we ought to check out links betwwen China and al Quida, after all let's also recall that North Korea sent Yemen weapons and our Navy rapelled down onto the cargo ship in the Mediterranean just to demonstrate that it could? Asia no likey USA folks!
I'm sure the pro Wal-Mart people here will disagree that China is a threat.
He merely saw them as his pimp.
Ping
Thank Nixon, and Kissinger.
With all due respect, but whence this idea that China has always wanted to rule the world? A more deliberately isolated, insulated society would be hard to find.
China considers itself "The Middle Kingdom", located between heaven and earth. In it's ancient psyche it has no need to conquer the world. What for? China, to the traditionalists, is the world.
Plus (to paraphrase a previous post) China is a huge country that has never been successfully ruled over from the center for any real period of time. It's history is filled with independent warlords, petty (and great) kingdoms, civil wars, etc. China isn't so much as stone as it is an iceberg.
Neither did Nixon or Carter, if you care to remember.
"Neither did Nixon or Carter, if you care to remember."
What I DO remember is your guy -- the traitor, Bubba Clinton -- photo-oping and cavorting around with the Chi-Coms, and whoring off American technology for a few baubles and campaign contributions. Then all the usual comical denials.
Btw, go ahead and Google "china clinton campaign contributions", you "only" get 303,000 results.
P.S. -- You're the "hoot."
China is its own worst enemy. As China continues its industrial revolution and Chinese citizens experience more and more conveniences of the modern world, they will want a louder voice in the direction of the country. Modernization also means more exposure to the outside world and a desire for western culture and freedom. A civil war may occur in this process. The other pitfalls for China are the inevitable market correction to the value of the Yuan which the Chinese government has been propping up for some time and the rise of worker salaries and compensation. As China faces these demands by its citizens, its ability to remain a cheap source of labor and goods will be taken over by other countries causing a market collapse and a major recession.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.