They may be running out of willing suicide bombers. In fact some have been chained to their cars which sugests taking a person's family hostage might be a motivation. But is there any real evidence that the insurgents are losing support in the sunni neighborhoods?
They didn't participate in the vote and there are no real indications that I've seen that they've turned on the insurgents. If you see it please let me know as I would like to agree with you but the number of attacks seems to remain relatively constant if shifting more toward ING targets that are less well protected.
I think it as likely that Iraq will devolve into ethnic civil war.
More and more Iraqis are indeed getting sick and tired of the terrorists.
Angry Iraqis denounce insurgent attacks (Lebanon paper)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1356982/posts
As more people lose loved ones to relentless violence, Iraqis have become increasingly vocal in their criticism of the insurgency, even staging a rare public demonstration condemning militants as terrorists after a deadly car bombing. While it may be too early to say public opinion has shifted, one thing is clear: Many Iraqis have grown tired of two years of constant insecurity, and some are directing their anger at insurgents for the first time.
"I demand that they be put in the zoo along with the other scavengers, because that is where they belong," says one Mosul resident whose brother was killed in a recent attack.
You could argue instead that Iraq is in a civil war, but that it's a low intensity one, that the rebel/minority side is losing, and that it's already been as bad as it's going to get. You could also argue that, relative to other possibilities, it's just as well to get it over with now.
Can't find any right now, but I recall several articles with at least anecdotal evidence, including one where an insurgent himself was interviewed who bemoaned that fact that he had been able to operate openly and be readily sheltered in his Baghdad (IIRC) neighborhood, but now he'd had to move because the locals would turn him in, as they had half his cell.