Washed Away By the Preference Cascade?

Tech Central Station ^ | 3/7/05 | Glenn Harlan Reynolds

[Valin]

Three years ago, I looked at the phenomenon of "preference cascades" -- in which people who have been obliged to conceal their true beliefs by social pressure or sheer force suddenly discover that a lot of other people feel the same way -- and wrote:

"This illustrates, in a mild way, the reason why totalitarian regimes collapse so suddenly. (Click here for a more complex analysis of this and related issues). Such regimes have little legitimacy, but they spend a lot of effort making sure that citizens don't realize the extent to which their fellow-citizens dislike the regime. If the secret police and the censors are doing their job, 99% of the populace can hate the regime and be ready to revolt against it - but no revolt will occur because no one realizes that everyone else feels the same way.

"This works until something breaks the spell, and the discontented realize that their feelings are widely shared, at which point the collapse of the regime may seem very sudden to outside observers - or even to the citizens themselves. Claims after the fact that many people who seemed like loyal apparatchiks really loathed the regime are often self-serving, of course. But they're also often true: Even if one loathes the regime, few people have the force of will to stage one-man revolutions, and when preferences are sufficiently falsified, each dissident may feel that he or she is the only one, or at least part of a minority too small to make any difference.

"One interesting question is whether a lot of the hardline Arab states are like this. Places like Iraq, Syria, or Saudi Arabia spend a lot of time telling their citizens that everyone feels a particular way, and punishing those who dare to differ, which has the effect of encouraging people to falsify their preferences. But who knows? Given the right trigger, those brittle authoritarian regimes might collapse overnight, with most of the population swearing - with all apparent sincerity - that it had never supported them, or their anti-Western policies, at all.

"Perhaps we should think about how to make it so."

Apparently, some people in the White House and the Pentagon did think about that, and the wave of interest in democracy that has swept the Middle East has been impressive. As the New York Times noted this past weekend, the success of elections in Afghanistan and Iraq has led to moves toward democracy around the region:

"The entire Middle East seems to be entering uncharted political and social territory with a similar mixture of anticipation and dread. Events in Lebanon and Egypt, following a limited vote for municipal councils in Saudi Arabia and landmark elections in Iraq, as well as the Palestinian territories, combined to give the sense, however tentative, that twilight might be descending on authoritarian Arab governments.

"A mix of outside pressure and internal shifts has created this moment. Arabs of a younger, more savvy generation appear more willing to take their dissatisfaction directly to the front stoop of repressive leaders."

Although some people are openly gloating already, I think it's a bit early: Democratization is a process, not an event, and in the Middle East it's a process that's just getting underway, with plenty of room for things to go wrong. And well over a decade after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the democratization process in Eastern Europe is far from finished. Still, it's become clear that those who were claiming -- as recently as a couple of months ago, in some cases -- that Arabs just don't care about democracy, or freedom, were wrong. And though there's a lot of ground to cover between demonstrating that desire, and fulfilling it, it's still an important point.

Recent events also offer us some lessons in how we might continue the process. One lesson is that we need to keep communications as free as possible, worldwide. As the Times article notes:

"Young protesters have been spurred by the rise of new technology, especially uncensored satellite television, which prevents Arab governments from hiding what is happening on their own streets. The Internet and cellphones have also been deployed to erode censorship and help activists mobilize in ways previous generations never could."

Fearful of such events, Nepal has shut down its cellphone network, though this seems more likely to foment revolution than to scotch it.

After 9/11, there was a lot of talk about making communications networks more amenable to censorship and control by governments, but I think that's a terrible mistake. Yeah, open communications make it marginally easier for terrorists to communicate -- but that downside is swamped by the terrorism-draining potential of democracy, which open communications facilitate. That's a reason to oppose a United Nations takeover of the Internet, which would, like most things the U.N. does, tend to push matters in a tyrant-friendly direction. Dictatorships always depend on enforcing public lies; that makes open communication inherently anti-dictator, and ensures that dictators and their friends will always try to quash it.

Another lesson is that we need to provide leadership. People listen to what America says, and they watch what we do. If we're consistent in our defense of freedom, people will notice, and even our enemies will play into our hands. This happened in Iraq, where the hostile satellite networks Al Jazeera and Al Arabiya never missed a chance to show an anti-American protest. But what their audiences in Iran and the Arab world saw was something more -- not just anti-American protest, but anti-American protest that was allowed by the Americans. (The boomerang effect was something like what happened to the Soviet Union when it broadcast reports of Americans protesting the Vietnam War, only to have Soviet audiences notice that the Americans were not only free to protest, but also had new shoes!) Freedom is contagious, if we let it be, and open media are the most potent vector by which it spreads. That should drive our strategy, and our tactics, most of the time.

[Hebrews 11:6]

Freedom is contagious, if we let it be

Events seem to be bearing this out, but history also shows that some are always ready to exploit power vacuums for their own nefarious purposes. So, a benevolent force may be needed for a time until internal checks and balances can be generated and established to work toward stability.

Witness the postwar occupations of Germany, Japan, and now Iraq. The USA has demonstrated its benevolence aplenty and thus is eminently qualified.

Who will do that for other countries--the U.N.? Hah!

[2banana]

Three years ago, I looked at the phenomenon of "preference cascades" -- in which people who have been obliged to conceal their true beliefs by social pressure or sheer force suddenly discover that a lot of other people feel the same way -- and wrote:

We can only hope this will happen to American Universities - heck - even people in the middle east are getting it!

[happyathome]

Right on - I was thinking about the same connection. One or two conservative students standing up to Lefty professors in the classroom might start an on-campus intellectual revolution, or at the least will expose the Left as "the establishment" at many (most?) schools.

On another note, I was thinking that not all of the propaganda that the Arab dictatorships spewed for the last 50 years will evaporate so quickly. Look at the protests among students in Iraq over Saturday being made part of the new "weekend". They oppose Saturday as a day off because it is the Jewish day of rest. These are Shiite kids who probably voted and aren't necessarily anti-American, yet the echos of 50 years of anti-Semitic propaganda still resonates. Notwithstanding the (above) author's concept of a spontaneous and rapid revolution, some poison is going to linger in the collective bloodstream for a while.

[Valin]

We can only hope this will happen to American Universities

I hope you're right, but I wouldn't hold my breath. Reforming the acadamy is going to take a long time.

[Valin]

Look at the protests among students in Iraq over Saturday being made part of the new "weekend".

What was it 200 students?

[happyathome]

Who knows - might have been 20, might have been 2,000. That's not my point. My point is that its going to take a generation of freedom for some of the worst aspects of propaganda and misinformation to fade away. In the age of suicide bombers, all it takes is a few wrong-minded people to stir things up.

[Valin]

Point taken. IMO (freely given and worth almost that much) there will be setbacks.

STILL these are exciting days.

[lady lawyer]

"Preference cascade" is the whole point of the story, The Emporer's New Clothes. It is also the reason for Rush Limbaugh's success.

[thoughtomator]

The MSM is experiencing its own "preference cascade", thanks in large part to us!

[fanfan]

Such regimes have little legitimacy, but they spend a lot of effort making sure that citizens don't realize the extent to which their fellow-citizens dislike the regime. If the secret police and the censors are doing their job, 99% of the populace can hate the regime and be ready to revolt against it - but no revolt will occur because no one realizes that everyone else feels the same way

Yup. That sounds like Canada right now.

[Tolik]

Glenn Harlan Reynolds:

...Another lesson is that we need to provide leadership. People listen to what America says, and they watch what we do. If we're consistent in our defense of freedom, people will notice, and even our enemies will play into our hands. This happened in Iraq, where the hostile satellite networks Al Jazeera and Al Arabiya never missed a chance to show an anti-American protest. But what their audiences in Iran and the Arab world saw was something more -- not just anti-American protest, but anti-American protest that was allowed by the Americans. (The boomerang effect was something like what happened to the Soviet Union when it broadcast reports of Americans protesting the Vietnam War, only to have Soviet audiences notice that the Americans were not only free to protest, but also had new shoes!) Freedom is contagious, if we let it be, and open media are the most potent vector by which it spreads. That should drive our strategy, and our tactics, most of the time.

Nailed It !

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[Valin]

Such regimes have little legitimacy, but they spend a lot of effort making sure that citizens don't realize the extent to which their fellow-citizens dislike the regime. If the secret police and the censors are doing their job, 99% of the populace can hate the regime and be ready to revolt against it - but no revolt will occur because no one realizes that everyone else feels the same way


It's almost straight out of "The Case For Democracy". It's also the reason dictatorships (of whatever varity) don't progress.

[Nick Danger]

It's also the reason dictatorships (of whatever varity) don't progress.

It's also the reason that Democrats can't get a break. Time was, various forms of Dixie Chicks could mouth left-leaning platitudes into their microphones, and nobody would say a thing. Every conservative in the audience would assume they were the only one there.

Now, "Shut up and sing!" draws the applause, not the latest anti-war catchphrase from some doofus with a guitar.

[lainde]

bttt

[untenured]

This idea of preference falsification and cascades is AFAIK generally attributed to Timur Kuran at USC. If anyone is interested, he has a very accessible book about the phenomenon called Private Truths, Public Lies . While most applicable to dictatorial societies, you could also apply the theory to stifling political correctness of the sort that exists in many spheres of Western society.

[Valin]

OH SURE! Force me to go and buy another book. Well I just hope you can live with this.

(sigh) I'm so cheap and easy.

[Daffynition]

I just heard this term used in a radio interview with [I think] John Hayward of HumanEvents.

I’m so proud of FReepers who are *way* ahead of the curve on stuff like this.

**The “preference cascade” is not limited to despotic regimes in the Middle East. It can happen anywhere where people suddenly find out that they’re not alone. Once people can talk amongst themselves they find that the people who are in control of the news - the narrative - have been lying to them all their lives. That their views have been overlooked and their concerns have been belittled by people whose claim to the media megaphone is a degree in English from CCBSU (Close Cover Before Striking University) and a moral certainty that their Liberalism is the only acceptable viewpoint.**

Hayward’s premise is that Hussein is in BIG-BIG trouble. He just doesn’t know it yet. :)