Posted on 03/11/2005 4:19:04 AM PST by Born Conservative
HARRISBURG – A new statewide survey shows Democratic Pennsylvania Treasurer Bob Casey Jr. holding a 7-point lead over two-term incumbent U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pittsburgh, in the 2006 senate race.
Conducted by SurveyUSA for WNEP-TV Channel 16, the survey asked 506 registered voters around the state who they would choose in the senate race. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percent.
The results showed Casey with 49 percent to Santorum’s 42 percent. Eight percent of the poll respondents were undecided.
A poll released last month by Quinnipiac University showed similar results, with Casey leading Santorum 46 percent to 41 percent, and 11 percent undecided.
“This is going to be a great matchup,” said Len Champney, chairman of the University of Scranton political science department.
The fight for the Senate seat has barely begun, but it has all the makings of a real slugfest.
Casey, a Scranton native and son of former Gov. Robert P. Casey Sr., officially threw his hat in the ring last week when he announced he would run for Santorum’s seat.
Santorum has emerged as a leader in the Republican Party and is the third-ranking Republican in the Senate.
National Democrats had been courting Casey to run against Santorum for months, believing Casey’s name recognition around the state coupled with his conservative, anti-abortion social values could be unseat the GOP powerhouse.
“I think Casey is a great candidate for the Democrats, because he is the type of Democrat who can bring Democrats home who voted for Santorum and (President) Bush over the years – especially in places like Western Pennsylvania and Northeastern Pennsylvania,” said Larry Ceisler, a Philadelphia-based political analyst.
Casey campaign spokesman Marc Farinella said the campaign is “gratified by the results of the surveys,” but said it’s too soon to take anything for granted. “This will be a long, hard-fought campaign. We know we have our work cut out for us.”
Republicans also downplayed the poll results, saying it’s too early in the campaign to worry about numbers.
“Typically, when candidates announce, they get an artificial bounce anyway,” said Josh Wilson, political director for the Pennsylvania Republican State Committee. “Casey has yet to establish where he stands on issues at this point. When he does start taking a stand on issues, we expect that artificial bounce to evaporate.”
Santorum has built a reputation as one of the most conservative members of the Senate. His evangelical brand of politics has elevated him to hero among conservative Christians and anti-abortion activists. He also has been one of President Bush’s most ardent supporters.
That close relationship with Bush could hurt Santorum in his re-election bid next year, according to Ceisler.
Bush narrowly lost Pennsylvania in his re-election bid last year, he said. Plus, he said Santorum might see a public backlash for his vocal support of Bush’s plan to privatize Social Security.
“The Bush plan on Social Security is a non-starter,” Ceisler said. “It’s D.O.A.”
Champney agreed that Santorum’s public support for Bush’s plan could come back to bite him next year, and said Casey’s socially conservative values undercut Santorum’s political base.
Wilson, however, said Santorum’s conservative base will not abandon him. “Senator Santorum has certainly earned his conservative stripes on various issues.”
Champney said Santorum should not take Casey’s candidacy lightly.
“If I was Santorum, I’d be real worried right now,” Champney said. “The Democrats are going to put a huge amount of money into this. There is nobody the Democrats want to knock off more than Santorum.”
The SurveyUSA poll also showed Gov. Ed Rendell with a 6-point lead over potential Republican challenger and former Pittsburgh Steeler Lynn Swann. The poll showed Rendell with 50 percent, Swann with 44 percent and 5 percent undecided.
The poll did not ask voters about the other two potential Republican candidates for governor next year, former Lt. Gov. Bill Scranton and Harrisburg state Sen. Jeffrey Piccola.
Ceisler dismissed the poll results on the governor’s race, saying: “I think it has more to do with football that it does with politics.”
Santorum will crush Casey, in the end it won't even be a contest.
Santorum should not have knocked himself out getting Specter elected. This contest will be close and Casey just might pull it out.
I doubt that Santorum is going to blow Casey away. The problem is that the PA conservatives are determined to blame Santorum for Specter's transgressions. It seems like a pretty stupid thing to do, but as incredible as it may seem, it appears that they would rather have Casey than Santorum.
PA is basically a liberal state, thanks to Philadelphia. The PA conservatives are very lucky to have someone like Santorum representing them, given the fact that someone like Casey more nearly reflects the views of the majority of voters.
Santorum has clearly 'grown' in office - sidling up to Hillary, supporting Specter all the way. He will have to work to win this next election. He seems to be sliding downhill to be a younger version of Specter. Lotsa' luck PA.
PA has lost business and they keep electing the DEMS that cause the problem.
I'm sure W and Cheney will do their fair share of campaigning with him and that should make the difference. It's funny that so many are speculating this far in advance about the next election.
I don't think Santorum has become a liberal or even a moderate. Politics make strange bedfellows. That doesn't mean his stripes have changed.
Santorum really stepped into it with his support of Specter last year. I think Toomey should run against him in the primary. Toomey owes him and the PA Republican Party exactly NOTHING.
WHY...because more than half of the state's population borders-up to NY & NJ and thus they're political idiots.
I respectfully disagree, I think Santorum will beat Casey handily. Remember, Santorum won an upset victory in 1994 in a shocker, and he was target #1 of the dems in 2000 when he cruised to victory. I think a majority of Pa. Catholics will support him despite Spector, and further I think Casey will have problems with liberals because of his position on abortion (I think some dems will vocally label Casey a DINO). Lastly, money, Santorum will have no problem raising as much as he wants or needs. I'm not saying that Casey will not be able to raise substantial funds, I'm sure he will given the fact that he is the cuurent State Treasurer, and he has a famous last name. But, I think Santorum will out raise, out spend his opponent, and win.
I hope you're right, but I think he's got a big problem. It's not so much him, actually, as it is his base. One thing about conservatives is that they are quick to bail out on you over one little thing, and they don't give a hoot who takes your place. With the Dems, it's the exact opposite (consider Clinton). Of course, that attitude also has its problems.
I'm not so sure that Casey will be able to raise so much money running for the Senate. Pennsylvania liberals hated Santorum when he ran for reelection in 2000, and they still wouldn't give a dime to Congressman Ron Klink because he was pro-life and pro-gun.
I also think that RINOs and Rendellicans would vote for Santorum over Casey, just like they voted for Santorum over Klink. While RINOs disagree with Santorum on social issues, they agree with him on economic issues, and they disagree with Casey on everything under the sun. In fact, Casey's father never ran well in the Philly suburbs. In his first gubernatorial bid in 1986 (against William Scranton III), Casey, Sr. won statewide with 50.69% of the vote, but his percentages in the Philly suburbs were pitiful: 39.59% in Bucks County, 39.50% in Delaware County and 33.69% in Montgomery County (source: http://wilkes1.wilkes.edu/~wesp1/gov/PaGov1986.html ). And in his reelection bid in 1990, Casey, Sr. beat then-Republican Barbara Hafer with a whopping 67.65% of the vote, yet his percentages in the Philly suburbs were much lower: 58.58% in Bucks, 54.82% in Delco and 49.84% in Montco (source: http://wilkes1.wilkes.edu/~wesp1/gov/PaGov1990.html ). Santorum, on the other hand, has always run very strongly in the Philly suburbs, running well ahead of GOP presidential candidates. In 2000, Santorum got 57.09% in Bucks County, 54.15% in Delaware County and 54.43% in Montgomery County (source: http://wilkes1.wilkes.edu/~wesp1/sen/PaSen2000.html ), in each case over 10% higher than Bush's 46.29% in Bucks, 42.66% in Delaware and 43.81% in Montco (source: http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/index.html ). That was against Congressman Ron Klink, a socially conservative, economically liberal Democrat from Western PA. In 1994, against Harris Wofford, who was not only a socially liberal Senate incumbent but also a Philly-area suburbanite, Santorum got 52.35% in Bucks, 52.70% in Delco and 50.49% in Montco (source: http://wilkes1.wilkes.edu/~wesp1/sen/PaSen1994.html ).
So I think Santorum will end up beating Casey, Jr. by at least 5%, with Casey underperforming in the Philly suburbs and failing to do all that great in the "T" or in the Pittsburgh suburbs.
I doubt that Santorum's support will hurt his election chances, but in the event that I am wrong and he loses, the liberals will regret his loss because I am sure President Bush will appoint him to a cabinet level position where Santorum will really be able to implement a conservative policy. He will not be in a sea of 100 compromisers anymore. A la John Ashcroft.
Why did Santorum push so hard for Spectors win? Are they THAT good of friends?
Maybe its because Santorum knew he would need Spector to woo voters this time around?
Santorum will SQUEAK by.
PA conservatives are extrmemly angry at Santorum and for GOOD reason. Santorum brought this on himself. Rick may have to work harder this time, but he will pull it out. And a number of those angry conservatives like myself, will vote for him, though many of them will refuse to campaign for RICK this time around.
The GOP may have traded Santorum for Specter.
The thing you're missing is that it's not an issue of whether Santorum brought it on himself. It's an issue of whether the State of PA is going to be represented by Santorum or by a liberal Democrat. The PA conservatives are taking this too personal, and are going to end up cutting off their noses to spite their face.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.