Pentagon delegation arrives in Taipei for talks with military

Taipei Times ^ | Mar 17, 2005 | Rich Chang

[ThermoNuclearWarrior]

"It would take time to consolidate and focus our military for trouble in the Taiwan Strait"

We need to start dramatically increasing the number of our troops and equipment as quickly as possible. It takes time to do these things and we need to be pursuing this right now as fast as possible. We can't afford to start doing this after a big war has already broke out.

China has become more aggressive lately because they don't think we have the troops to defeat them. Especially while we are occupied in Iraq and Afghanistan. We should have never allowed our military to shrink to the size it has. The best weapons technology in the world can't completely make up for actual troops.

[ThermoNuclearWarrior]

We should covertly help Taiwan get Nuclear weapons.

[ThermoNuclearWarrior]

"Winning, in my view, entails a Taiwan that continues to enjoy its independence without fighting a war conceivably more bloody and devastating than the last global conflict we had"

Except all signs point to China aggressively and seriously preparing for the forced take over of Taiwan. They are modernizing their military and passing laws to justify what they inevitably will do. China WILL invade Taiwan at some point in the future unless the Chinese government falls before that can happen.

They are getting ready for the war and it's going to come so we better start increasing the size of our military and preparing in every way possible.

[Rembrandt_fan]

Our old pal the Soviet Union spent decades preparing for an invasion of Western Europe, yet did not--or rather--could not because we and our allies kept our heads. To carry the analogy further, war is no more inevitable with China than it was with the now-defunct Soviet Union. I agree that prudent steps should be taken to forestall Chinese aggression, but I argue that these steps can be taken with a great deal more subtlety and smarts than what some on this thread are advocating. Publicly announcing our intention to defend Taiwan militarily, for example, or (as one person on this thread has suggested) arming the Taiwanese with nuclear warheads are simply not effective ways of dealing with that aggression. Never give the enemy what he wants, and what he wants right now is a foolhardy overreaction to some of the actions the Chinese have taken of late. I'm a former paratrooper and truly don't mind the notion of a lot of dead communists, but I also think there's a way out of this without war. Ultimately, I trust the President and his advisers, some of the best geopolitical strategists this country has ever produced, to make the right decisions.

[ThermoNuclearWarrior]

I think their would be hope if we left Taiwan to defend themselves but I don't think we will, or should, do this. China is also more stable than the Soviet Union which means it's less likely to fall on it's own.

But we should be increasing the size of our military and preparing for this potential war. We can't increase the number of well trained troops and weaponry over night once a big war breaks out. There may be ways to prevent war with China, but we need to be prepared for war if it happens. We must also be prepared for other Nations getting involved. In my opinion, there is no doubt North Korea would attack South Korea, especially if the Chinese regime was in trouble. The end of the Chinese Regime would be the end of their regime. Russia would get involved against us even if it wasn't with direct force. Right now we aren't prepared for a big war and that worries me. Our Military just isn't big enough and their is a decent chance we could find ourselves in a big war in the coming years.

[skybolt]

Well I thought the F22 was too expensive and maybe it still is but no I hope we can get at 20 of them ready quick. Even 5 would help.

[tallhappy]

Their country will be destroyed if they get into a long conflict against The United States, Taiwan, Japan, and Australia

Yes. But a note: Currently Australia is on China's side.

[tallhappy]

Who can know with any certainty what the Chinese intend?

"The Chinese" means Chinese Communist Party and what they intend is 100% known: they want to stay in power.

[OPS4]

Outfit the Taiwan governemnet with a couple of Missile Silos with command and control aimed at Peking and Moscow.
The send in two awacs and two stealth ready to roll crews with full doomsday loads and have them visit the ships at sea.

One nuclear sub off the coast and one fully loaded destroyer ladend with anti-nuke missle busters.

A 12 ship fleet of fast fully loaded destroyers
equipped with anti sub and full operational deck
satellite guided missle launchers.

with 1500 special forces navy seal and ranger class
experts from search and destroy, with haul as fast boats. Include two harrier class jets on each ship.

Then we will see if they are so ready to take down a democratic nation.
Ops4 God Bless America!

[Paul_Denton]

Taiwan needs to go nuclear (if it has not already).

[Paul_Denton]

Can they send advisors to America??

I wish they could regarding the immigration issue!

[SauronOfMordor]

Not a walk in the park no, but limitless supply of ground forces supported by an increasing advanced air-force and I don't see what country could stop them. After all, we are 7,000 from supply routes, vs. 500 or less miles for them. i doubt it is something they consider plausible today but they seem to be advanced long-term thinkers

Look at a topographical map of Asia. For China to send an army into the Middle East, they would have to cross desert and the Himalayan Mountains. And that's just to make it to the Chinese border. Supporting such an invasion would be a logistical nightmare.

If we went to war with China, it would be interesting if Congress decided to exercise their Constitutional prerogative to "grant Letters of Marque and Reprisal", and commission privateers to go seize Chinese commercial shipping. Maybe we could still keep the Walmart shelves full

[Lokibob]

Taiwan is a lot closer to the mainland, like 5.5 nautical miles from the mainland.

Matsu Islands

Taiwan stations a total of about 18,000 troops on the offshore island of Matsu. Situated outside the mouth of the Min River, the Matsu Islands form the northern anchor of the offshore defense line commanding the Min River. The main island of the complex is Nankan, more commonly known as Matsu, from the name of the major port of the island. It is 114 nautical miles northwest of Keelung, the port city on the northern tip of Taiwan, and is the same distance north of the Kinmen Islands. There are two harbors in Nankan: Fuwo and Matsu. Other major islands of the group are Peikan, Kaoteng, Tungyin, Hsiyin, Tungchu, and Hsichu. Nankan is the largest, with an area of 10.4 sq. km. Kaoteng is located only 5.5 nautical miles (9,250 meters) from the Chinese mainland.

Domestic airlines operate flights to all of the major cities on Taiwan proper, as well as to the islands of Kinmen and Matsu off the coast of mainland China. Projects have been made for construction of a new airport at Matsu (Nankan) and Matsu (Peikan).

Matsu has been taking artillery fire from the mainland since the 40"s.

[sanchez810]

Taiwan need to get serious with its defence. so far it has not.

[quantfive]

"Look at a topographical map of Asia. For China to send an army into the Middle East, they would have to cross desert and the Himalayan Mountains. And that's just to make it to the Chinese border. Supporting such an invasion would be a logistical nightmare."

Yeah, your right, would have to go through Pakistan or Tajiikastan first.

"If we went to war with China, it would be interesting if Congress decided to exercise their Constitutional prerogative to "grant Letters of Marque and Reprisal", and commission privateers to go seize Chinese commercial shipping. Maybe we could still keep the Walmart shelves full"

HAHAH. Thats funny. If we went to war I am sure we would at least seize all assets domestically and that would be no chump change.

[pganini]

Silly people on this forum :)

China is not going to invade Taiwan unless Taiwan declares independence. That is, Taiwan will have to make the first move.

The Anti-Secession law doesn't change anything, it's just a re-iteration of what has been said time and time again.

BTW, didn't Virginia voted to SECEDE from the Union as I recall and what did United States do? ATTACKED the south. Just because you're a democracy doesn't give you the right to secede and the international community knows this.

The fact is -- if Taiwan declares independence, the war will be over in 1-2 days. China will launch its missles, hitting NOT the military targets, but Taiwan's high tech industrialized areas, creating massive panic. That alone will force Chen Shui Bian back from independence. Taiwan hasn't seen war or battles for the last 50 years -- the people in teh army has no clue what war is about, much less the people.

U.S. will not be involved with war against China directly, maybe supporting or breaking blockades, but not an outright invasion. Also, a lot of analysts think that China will "break up into pieces" if it can't take back Taiwan -- this is simply not the case. They ahve no clue about Chinese history, especially on how the Chinese suffered greatly when it was occupied by Japanese. If Japan gets involved, there will be 100% popular support in China for the government. You can't win a war without breaking the will to fight, and using Japan will = giving Chinese government what they wanted, a unified China.

Fact is, historically speaking, China and the US really doesn't have any conflicts. China's real enemy, is Japan and is eager to have a payback to that POS some time in the future. I am not sure what the American obsession is with arming Japan, didn't the Japanese killed scores of Americans in WWII? You don't think they want to dominate the world? Think again.

[pganini]

Actually -- i think Bush will also "do nothing" if Taiwan delcares independence and is subsequently attacked by China.

Every presidential candidate would rachet up rhetorics on China and yet by the time they get into office, they do nothing.

The US could easily have launched missle strikes at the orion plane on Hainan island after the incident in 2001 and yet, Bush, got onto TV, looking really grimmed, and literally apologized to China.

There is a reason for this -- perhaps it's something that's not revealed to the US public about the real strength of the Chinese military, and/or economic losses.

China buys about 15% of US debt, Japan buys about 25%. Japan is heavily dependent on China for exports as well as its manufacturing base. If an all-out war starts with China, no doubt China will close its access to the Japanese. This will force Japan into a huge recession (China stops buying steel last yaer from Japan and that ALONE generated a recession for the Japanese), and they won't purchase US treasury bills. That's 40% right there. Without them, US will have to raise interest rates MASSIVELY which will kill its economy. That plus the instant rising of prices from Walmart, which accounts for about 10% of US economy some estimates, will cause a great depression. This is the problem with global trade.

Therefore, US will not get into an all out war with China. It will probably launch airstrikes at the most against Fujian province where most of the missles are pointed at Taiwan, assuming Taiwan didn't capitulate within a few days. That's it. Both side will restrain themselves. In the end, China probably won't be able to invade Taiwan, but Taiwan's infrastructure and technology will be destroyed (and Taiwan will basically, be back to the stone age). China will suffer Fujian province, which about all of the investments there came from Taiwan :)

So chill out -- the war scenario is only viable when Taiwan declares independence. Bush will control Chen shui-bian before he does that.

[pganini]

Taiwan was part of China since the Ming dynasty, about 300 years before US was even a country. Check your historical maps, please. Japan invaded China and the Ching emperor seceded the territory to Japan in 1890's.

I guess the Americans have totally forgotten how bad the Japanese were in 1940's. You think they're not thinking about world domination? They're just using US to do their dirty work right now.


"The way I see it. Once China takes (if they succeed) Taiwan they will cry for peace. They will ask the world to just let it go, the UN and most of the world will comply. Their next major step WILL be Japan and this whole business of theirs will start all over again, just as with Taiwan (Taiwan was never theirs to begain with.) A few years will pass before they strike Japan.

The Chinese government is setting up a lot of propaganda in preparation for war against Japan"

[Steve Van Doorn]

“Taiwan was part of China since the Ming dynasty, about 300 years before US was even a country. Check your historical maps, please.”

I am confused what you are trying to say here? Are you saying because Dynasty’s of China ruled Taiwan hundreds of years ago that some how the Communists Chinese now have some kind of right over it? I am lost.

[Steve Van Doorn]

”I guess the Americans have totally forgotten how bad the Japanese were in 1940's.”

My next door Neighbor had all her skin removed from her back and replaced with Elephant skin and she must live with it to this day because doctors say it would be life threatening to attempt the operation.

My wife’s friend was one of the flying tigers that went to China to help defend against Japan’s invasion. My Grandfather fought against the japanese.

We have not forgotten, we know they are no longer ruled by monarchy or dictatorship thus their threat level is next to nil.