Posted on 03/22/2005 7:33:39 AM PST by Crackingham
A strong challenge to U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum's 2006 re-election bid is taking shape as a new Pittsburgh Tribune-Review poll shows the incumbent Republican running neck-and-neck with Democratic state Treasurer Robert P. Casey Jr.
The statewide Keystone Poll shows Casey, who has announced he will oppose Santorum, edging the two-term incumbent senator by 44 percent to 43 percent -- a statistical dead heat -- among 459 registered voters, with 13 percent undecided. The survey released Monday has a margin for error of 4.6 percentage points.
"These candidates start out relatively even," said Keystone Poll Director G. Terry Madonna. "This is the marquee Senate race in the country next year, and it's going to be an old-fashioned barn-burner."
"Everybody expects it to be hard-fought and very competitive," he said.
Santorum, 46, is from Penn Hills. Casey, 44, is from Scranton.
The poll also found that Democratic Gov. Ed Rendell at this point would solidly beat any of three potential GOP challengers -- former Pittsburgh Steelers' star Lynn Swann, former Lt. Gov. Bill Scranton or Senate Majority Whip Jeffrey Piccola, R-Dauphin County -- in a 2006 gubernatorial match-up. The closest competition came from Scranton, who trailed Rendell by 47 percent to 37 percent.
"Even though Rendell's numbers are decent, but not spectacular, the Republican candidates have their work cut out," Madonna said.
(Excerpt) Read more at pittsburghlive.com ...
More fallout from Karl Rove's truly stupid decision to support Arlen Specter.
I think Santorum endorsed Specter because his arm was twisted, but he will pay a price.
That's actually better for Santorum than I thought it would be. I wouldn't be shocked at all to see Casey win.
here we go!
Arlen Specter has NOTHING to do with Santorum's problems.
just posted this on the Pa. state board for ya. here we go, I'm still weary from the last election.
HAHAHA, RIIIIIGHT!
I think the red bits of PA and NYS ought to secede from their respective states to form a new one. Then the blue bits can go hang.
So how do we get them out?
Good comeback. You've convinced me that 10% of the electorate is swinging from conservative Santorum to pro-life liberal Casey because they're annoyed that Santorum supported Specter, who is so unpopular with Republicans in Pennsylvania that he won re-election by a landslide in November.
Get out of your house, talk to your neighbors, look at election results, you'll find that very few Republicans are looking for meta-political reasons to boot their own officeholders out of Washington. Santorum is a big target of the Left and Casey has a lot of unearned political capital among working-class voters. That's why Santorum is in trouble. Any other explanation is navel-gazing and self-important whining.
I heartily disagree.
It also doesn't help that the Philly suburbs, where Santorum won in 2000, are turning blue.
The Democrats played this hand extremely well. They are trying to tap into the discontent of socially conservative but otherwise liberal voters who agree with the socially conservative but otherwise populist message of Santorum. Hope this is a wake-up call for the GOP in truly swing states.
The Specter situation certainly won't help Santorum, but I don't think it's the major reason this will be a tough race for him. Santorum will never have a truly easy race in Pennsylvania. The demographics just aren't right. In 2000, he beat a pretty weak candidate in Ron Klink by only 7 points. Now put him up against Casey, a guy whose last name is golden in the state? A guy who is purportedly pro-life and pro-gun? This was gonna be a tight one no matter what. I think it's more of the fact that the Democrats just happen to have the perfect candidate to challenge Santorum, moreso than any Specter fallout.
Really? I'm curious why.
84% of Republicans voted for Specter in Pennsylvania. 77% of conservatives voted for Specter.
Santorum, unlike Specter, is actually a conservative. His sin is not hedging about Bush's judges or cozying up with Clinton, it's endorsing someone who did so in the name of party unity. What are the prospects that Santorum will do worse among Republicans or conservatives than Specter, who did (IMO) very well given his ideological profile and general unlikeability? Is there evidence that large numbers of Pennsylvanians want to ditch someone who is a good conservative vote because of his partisan support for a fellow Republican?
I don't either. I was just responding to the allcaps "nothing." The numbers are tough for Santorum, no doubt.
Right, I think Santorum has his work cut out for him. I am curious whether the limousine liberals in Montgomery and Bucks Counties will vote for a pro-life candidate just because he's got a (D) after his name--that cuts to the heart of the sort of issue that pushes some soccer moms over to the 'Rats.
I'd need to see some pretty good evidence before I blame unhappiness in his base for this showing. The Democrats have picked the best candidate they can find.
In all likelihood, Santorum will go down. The fact is, here in the Northeast, Bush-style Republicans have a difficult time winning statewide elections. Just look at the Republican governors in the Northeast or Republican senators – they are all much more moderate than the national party. Santorum is the lone outlier and when he loses next year, that will be that.
Well, all-caps NOTHING is false as long as you can find one voter who refuses to support Santorum for what he did to Toomey and follows through on his promise in November '06. I don't think it's anything like a significant factor, though, and the fact that Santorum's endorsement generated a lot of discussion on the Internet doesn't mean that Pennsylvanians would shoot themselves in the foot on Election Day and vote for a pro-labor liberal.
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