Rehnquist will retire.
That will change the balance of the Supreme court from the current 3 conseratives, 4 liberals, 2 moderates, to a new balance of 2 conservatives, 2 moderates and 4 liberals.
And that effectively makes it a liberal court, given that it takes 4 votes to grant cert, and no conservative majority is EVER possible.
All the Democrats have to do is filibuster ANY Bush Supreme Court nominee, and by leaving the court at 8, they gain control of the court.
The point is that the Republicans have the power to act and end this. If they will not act, it is a willful choice on their part to NOT give the Christians the ONE thing on the Christians' agenda for which the Christians have been one of the main pistons of the Republican party for 30 years.
Some folks might think that the Christians can be "finessed" on this, but they are wrong. Christian anguish began when Arlen Specter announced his position the day after the election. But the Christians said "Wait and see." Specter was confirmed. Now the Christians are mobilized in the Schiavo case, the courts are playing the ghouls, and once again the Republican leaders - whom Christians know have the power to intervene - are dithering.
If that woman dies, the disillusionment among Christians is going to be profound, and the discouragement deep.
Because Christians know that this IS preventable, IF the Republicans act.
And finally, even as this plays out, the nuclear option on judges looks to be dying because of REPUBLICAN obstruction.
Put all of those things together, and there will be no point trying to reason with a few million Christians: they are not political calculators but moralists. They are not going to do the cynical balancing act you suggest. What they will do is get discouraged and stay home, by the millions.
And that guarantees a Democratic America, which morally will be indistinguishable from the present America, which already has a Democratic moral and judicial code which Republicans are proving unwilling to REALLY dismantle, even though they have the power.
Perhaps the Republicans can go out there and find a whole new voter bloc to replace those millions of heartbroken and disaffected Christians. I have no idea where.
The easier thing to do by far would be to keep faith, intervene to save Terri Schiavo, and pass the nuclear option. That's all the Christians want, and if they are given it, the Republicans cannot lose.
The Republicans seem to have a very perverse desire to "game" this constituency, while giving the economic Republicans everything on their agenda.
I am here to tell you that it ain't gonna fly.
At any rate, I still have hope that Jeb Bush is ultimately going to do the right thing here, and that will embolden the Republicans in Congress to pass the nuclear option, sewing up the Christian vote for the next 30 years.
But if the Republicans fail in the crunch, which is NOW and can no longer be deferred, they are going to profoundly demoralize the Christians. Probably irretrievably.
Years ago I read a book about the fall of Constananople to the Moslems.
The book claimed that most able bodied men was in the Churches praying and believing God would save the city rather than on the walls fighting the Turks.
Way I see it is the Turks are outside our walls. Are you going to going to leave the fight because you don't think it makes much difference?
History is filled with persons who said "The Nazis or Communists can't be much different or worse than things are now"
I guess if the Christians act the way you say that years from now I might come visiting my former homeland with a grandchild on a tourist visa and she might ask "Why isn't there any Churches, Grandpa?"
I will just say "This land used to have Christians dear until they got mad and refused to support the only effective opposition to the liberals there was"