Your analysis of Hillary's advantages was excellent. And add to that the intense bond between the Clintons and the black community. The 90's were good times for blacks. Blacks never warmed to latte liberal Kerry. Hillary will get 90%+ of the minority vote.
But what triggered the massive turnout was sodomite marriage as an issue.
What if Hillary Sistah Souljah's the sodomites (as Bill advised Kerry to do) ? After all, aren't most cultural conservatives former New Deal Democrat economic populists who would respond well to a campaign that pushed anti-illegal immigrant, anti-outsourcing, protectionist themes ?
You are exactly right. The Clintons invented triangulation. Hillary will move to the center on these issues as welll as on national security (she sits on the Senate Armed Services Committee and has made high highly visits to Iraq and Afghanistan). It was husband Bill who signed the DOMA. If Hillary can siphon off some votes from cultural conservatives or at least dampen their turnout, she will win. Hillary is positioning herself now, e.g., her speech at the 7th Day Adventist confab, and her recent pronouncements on abortion and the need for reconciliation with pro-life advocates.
As you correctly noted, Hillary will get more than 90% of the black vote and more importantly, a greater turnout than Kerry, which will be key in states like Florida and Ohio. She will also get a bigger share of the Latino vote if Richardson is her running mate.