Posted on 04/15/2005 1:05:29 PM PDT by nicolezmomma
I read it that way. The article is dated the 15th, I found it using a search on Yahoo news. In a minute here, I'll get the link. Here it is.
http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/afp/20050415/hl_afp/angolahealthvirustoll_050415190022
Okay, it didn't come out as a link, but you can copy and paste it into your address bar...
I read it that way.
So did I, but I can't quite believe it. That would far exceed the growth curve. If it is right, we may be in real trouble.
Another explanation is possibly this. They have 230 known dead and 250 known cumulative cases. That means 230/250 = 92%, which is the "running" mortality rate. (The instantaneous fatality rate, not counting those who have not died yet). God, this is morbid. If that is the case, of the original 237 cases which they knew about, 230 have died. Because people are no longer coming to the hospital, they "only" know of another 13 additional cases (237+13=250). 7 of the original 237 are evidently still living.
Now, following the growth curve, the real number of cumulative cases as of 4/15/2005 is 330. 330-230=100 active, living cases of which 7 are known and 93 are hidden. This would be consistent with the empty isolation ward. I hope this is correct because then the growth rate is "only" 11% per day. Better would be that the total number of cases is indeed only 250 and they have been effective in containing it. (That would mean 20 active cases and only 13 new active cases). The nightmare scenario would be 230 dead and 250 active cases for a total of 480 cumulative cases!!! If that is the case the growth rate is accelerating rapidly, and is well above 11% per day.
Ping on Marburg numbers discussion
MONEY? Why not the equipment to deal with this? Aren't they supposed to be excellent at tackling these problems heads on, stopping them in their tracks, and saving the world? What is a check supposed to do? Let me guess they want a check in US dollars, right?
I posted the relevant article paragraphs and the link on another thread here:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1384749/posts
China dropped off a bunch of gloves, IV sets, needles, and disposable paper gowns and masks at the Luanda airport. They're going to do it again two more times in April.
I commend China, but I think the stuff will be sold on the black market, and that hospitals in regions with no Marburg will benefit--still, every little bit helps.
I wish we had some way to know if the writer of the article knew what he was talking about. Or some other numbers.
Radio Update on NPR http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=4602297
I think WHO will, even if they cannot control the outbreak, at least try to control the information flow.
Without proper disposal of the bodies, it's a ticking time bomb. A secondary vector, not the natural vector, but a supplemental one like flies or rodents or mosquitos are very likely in a densely packed urban/slum setting.
I have long thought that if the flow of info slows down it means things are getting out of hand. The only fortunate thing up till now seems to be conflicting reports that while the virus is highly lethal, it is not quite as virulently contagious as ebola/marburg outbreaks in the past.
Real help is needed, should be provided, and whoever can help should step in. I just refuse to think throwing money at it will fix it, just yet. This is still the beginning stage.
I can't play it on my computer. Is there any new information, or confirmation of the number of cases currently being treated (not the dead, just the number of current cases being treated).
Thanks.
Thanks! I've asked a couple of people about the lack of info, figured they'd blacked it out.
Another explanation is possibly this. They have 230 known dead and 250 known cumulative cases. That means 230/250 = 92%, which is the "running" mortality rate.
Well, that's good news. At least is is NOT accelerating. It could be contained and is decelerating or it could be that new cases are hidden because people are not coming to hospitals and the growth rate is remains the same. We will have to wait and see.
Do we have this update from:
Marburg Transmission in Kwanza Sul Angola?
Recombinomics Commentary
April 14, 2005
The April 12 figures from the Ministry of Health show a slow increase in Marburg cases. There is clustering suggesting Marburg may be transmitting in Kwanza Sul. There are now 12 reported cases with 6 deaths in Luanda. Confirmed cases are lagging, with only 2 of the 12 confirmed. The city of Uige only has 30 of its 170 cases confirmed, but all 6 of the latest cases are confirmed. This suggests reported but unconfirmed cases have not been added to the total number of cases in Uige.
Confirmation or access issues may explain why none of the other Marburg positive municipalities in Uige province (Songo, Maquela do Zombo, Damba, Puri, Mucaba, Negage, and Nao precisado) do not have any new cases in the April 12 report.
There is a new case in Kwanza Sul. The case is in Sumbe, which is adjacent to Quilenda and Ambolm. These two municipalities had prior cases (5 in Ambolm and 1 in Quilenda), which have all died. However, the new case in Sumbe may reflect transmission linked to the earlier cases.
The official totals in the April 12 report have 231 reported cases with 210 fatalities. Municipalities with cases that have not died include Uige (12), Nao precisado (1), Malanje (2), Sumbe (1), Luanda (6), Mbanza Congo (1).
Bump
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