Posted on 04/15/2005 1:05:29 PM PDT by nicolezmomma
GENEVA (Reuters) - A 400-bed isolation ward set up at the epicenter of a deadly outbreak of Marburg disease in Angola is empty, shunned by families loath to surrender infected loved ones, the World Health Organization said Friday.
The U.N. agency said that as an emergency measure to stem the spread of the hemorrhagic fever it may distribute disinfectants to relatives refusing to send patients to its facility in the northern province of Uige.
The outbreak, which began last October, has killed 215 of 235 known victims of the Ebola-like disease which is transmitted through bodily fluids including saliva and blood.
Uige remains the most severely affected area with 208 cases and 194 deaths, according to a WHO statement issued overnight.
"The isolation ward at the province's large 400-bed hospital, which has been specially equipped and staffed for the care of Marburg patients, is empty, despite the fact that cases and deaths are known to be occurring in the community," it said.
"It is apparent that, for the time being, the community does not accept the conception of isolation," it added.
The Geneva-based WHO also said that four volunteers from the Angolan Red Cross, freshly trained in teaching communities about preventing the disease, were killed by lightning while on their way to work Thursday.
Finger, meet dike.
The UN: when you can't be effective at least try to look busy.
So there are only 20 patients left? Is 400 their estimate of the number of unknown cases?
I guess it's too dangerous to send people out to count the unknown cases.
It is very creepy how quiet this subject has been today. If there was nothing to worry about, you would think there would be those kind of reports. Instead there is not one update of statistics today.
Data on cases of Marburg haemorrhagic fever in Angola are being reclassified and no nation-wide data can be reported today."
15 April 2005
Data on cases of Marburg haemorrhagic fever in Angola are being reclassified and no nation-wide data can be reported today.
Detailed data are available for Uige, the most severely affected province, where surveillance has been steadily improving. As of 14 April, 224 cases have been reported. Of these cases, 207 were fatal. Most cases have occurred in Uige municipality, which has reported 175 cases and 163 deaths. Much smaller numbers of cases have been reported from a further 7 municipalities in this province.
Improvement of public understanding of the disease and acceptance of control measures has become one of the most urgent priorities. Today, meetings were held in the WHO office in Uige with traditional community leaders, known as Sobas, for all of Uige municipality. The governor of the province and the director of its health services have released the Sobas from their present duties for seven days so that they can accompany mobile surveillance and medical teams as they search for cases and collect bodies.
This decision is welcomed as an important step forward in achieving community acceptance of measures needed to bring the outbreak under control. WHO staff in Uige now plan to systematically extend the same procedures, using locally respected Sobas, to all other municipalities known to be affected by the disease. This plan is supported by the authorities.
Training to protect staff at the provincial hospital from infection and reduce the risk of transmission is continuing. Today, training was provided for 82 nurses in high-risk departments, including the maternity ward and the laboratory. Heads of departments and doctors were trained yesterday. Training for health staff in private clinics and for health workers in the police force is planned for early next week.
In response to an international appeal launched on 8 April, WHO has received pledges of funding, to support the outbreak response, from Germany, Sweden, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and the European Union Humanitarian Office (ECHO).
April 15, 2005
Luanda
Three tonnes and 250 kilogrammes of medical equipment, to fight the Marburg haemorrhagic fever in the north Uíge province, was handed over today, at Luanda's International Airport, by the Chinese government, to Angolan health authorities.
The donation offered by the business director of the Chinese Embassy in Angola, Ding Shan, to the deputy minister of Health, José Van-Dúnem, is comprised of 7.500 disposable coats, 10.000 infusion systems, 201.600 needles and 212.000 syringes, and other material.
This is that country's first quatity of humanitarian aid to Angola, expecting on 22 and 29 April the second and third supply equally composed of medical equipment, a donation estimated at USD 120.000.
Speaking to the press during the donation the deputy minister of health said that it means the continuation of help and solidarity towards Angola by international community in general and China in particular, in order to solve the Epidemic outbreak of the Marburg virus.
ping
ping
These data are at least three days old.
Data on cases of Marburg haemorrhagic fever in Angola are being reclassified and no nation-wide data can be reported today."
Marburg haemorrhagic fever in Angola - update 13
And other excellent comments:
Well, HOW MANY cases and deaths are known to be occurring???????
We know that they're not telling us the truth. Our "trackers" here on FR can tell you different numbers. They stopped reporting numbers on Mondayish. I haven't seen any real updates since then and nothing saying it's any better either. So, that only leaves me to draw a very bad conclusion along with the new warnings on travel
As many of us have surmised, there has been a data blackout. Someone commented on the disturbing silence.
Indeed.
If this continues to follow the growth curve, then we would expect that the cumulative number of cases, and the active cases (cumulative cases minus deaths), to be:
| Date | Cumulative Cases | Active Cases | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Today, 4/15 | 330 | 115 | |
| Saturday, 4/16 | 369 | 154 | |
| Sunday, 4/17 | 413 | 198 |
Either this thing is under control, or when they finally begin to release data again, we may see a comparitive explosion of cases.
Re-classified? Does this mean they got a bunch of test results from the CDC? If it has been classified as Marburg, and has been re-classified as NOT Marburg, why? Is there some other hemorrhagic fever in play, here?
Or vice-versa--sometimes it takes more than one test to identify Marburg in a patient. There have been cases of false negatives. We could be seeing substantially higher official numbers.
I wish they would be more specific in the reporting.
Yeah, my thoughts exactly. What does "reclassified" mean? It seems they are massaging the data. We'll see. We are now far enough up the growth curve (assuming it is still correct) that they are going to have trouble "reclassifying" the data. At some point they will have to report all cases that present hemoragic symptoms, with or without tests. And at that point, if this is still following the growth curve, we might see a "substantial" increase in the numbers.
Okay, we're in agreement here.
One other thing that's possible, they may release numbers that show an increase, but a slowing increase...which would give WHO some basis to ask for more money ("See? We're doing good, but with more money we could make SURE").
Or, they could say no new cases, and some re-classified as NOT Marburg, but that they need more money to make SURE, or for research for treatment, or some such BS.
You know what I really think?
I think we've seen the last of the accurate numbers. But I think your projections are correct. I remember with SARS last year, NONE of the numbers were accurate.
I reluctantly agree. Normally, I believe that the final answer is always the data. However, the countervailing arguments in this case are:
1. The data fit to the growth curve was excellent. Data were taken over 3.5 months, with several different measuremnts. The Pearsons correlation coefficient was .998. I ran the data in TableCurve, which tests against several thousand functional forms. The exponential was the best fit. Also, the numbers are sufficiently large that statistical fluctuation is small; it is unlikely that this good a fit is a statistical fluctuation. The curve seems robust.
2. An exponential curve signifies a simple mechanism for contagion and spread. The close fit to the data suggests that we have an accurate model (if it were a complicated function I might assume that there were many competing processes and we would really not be able to predict). Simple process, simple function.
3. None of the posts from WHO and others suggests they have done anything for containment. Indeed, the hospital isolation ward is empty.
4. Reading between the lines, they are "reclassifying" data. This suggests there is something they do not want released. It certainly suggests they don't like the numbers they are getting.
I don't want to get alarmist, but the only real test of a model is its predictive capability. Therefore, I will continue to follow the growth curve and compare to whatever numbers are released.
LUANDA (AFP) - The death toll from the Marburg virus epidemic rose to 230 in Angola with the northern province of Uige registering the overwhelming majority of fatalities, the health ministry and the World Health Organisation said.
Health officials are treating a total of 250 cases of the killer Ebola-like bug that has claimed 211 lives in Uige, the epicenter of the outbreak that was first detected in October, according to a statement from the ministry and the WHO.
The article goes on to say that there have been six deaths in Luanda.
So now we have 230 confirmed Marburg deaths.
Does that mean they have 250 active cases and an additional 230 dead?? Or, is that 250 cumulative cases of which 230 are dead and 20 are active? What is the date for this data? Are there presumed other cases, but these are the ones under direct treament?
I would not entirely be surprised if there were 250 active cases, as we know from a post a day or so ago that there were 461 people who were under observation as possible cases.
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