You know what I really think?
I think we've seen the last of the accurate numbers. But I think your projections are correct. I remember with SARS last year, NONE of the numbers were accurate.
I reluctantly agree. Normally, I believe that the final answer is always the data. However, the countervailing arguments in this case are:
1. The data fit to the growth curve was excellent. Data were taken over 3.5 months, with several different measuremnts. The Pearsons correlation coefficient was .998. I ran the data in TableCurve, which tests against several thousand functional forms. The exponential was the best fit. Also, the numbers are sufficiently large that statistical fluctuation is small; it is unlikely that this good a fit is a statistical fluctuation. The curve seems robust.
2. An exponential curve signifies a simple mechanism for contagion and spread. The close fit to the data suggests that we have an accurate model (if it were a complicated function I might assume that there were many competing processes and we would really not be able to predict). Simple process, simple function.
3. None of the posts from WHO and others suggests they have done anything for containment. Indeed, the hospital isolation ward is empty.
4. Reading between the lines, they are "reclassifying" data. This suggests there is something they do not want released. It certainly suggests they don't like the numbers they are getting.
I don't want to get alarmist, but the only real test of a model is its predictive capability. Therefore, I will continue to follow the growth curve and compare to whatever numbers are released.
LUANDA (AFP) - The death toll from the Marburg virus epidemic rose to 230 in Angola with the northern province of Uige registering the overwhelming majority of fatalities, the health ministry and the World Health Organisation said.
Health officials are treating a total of 250 cases of the killer Ebola-like bug that has claimed 211 lives in Uige, the epicenter of the outbreak that was first detected in October, according to a statement from the ministry and the WHO.
The article goes on to say that there have been six deaths in Luanda.
So now we have 230 confirmed Marburg deaths.
I'm afraid you are right.
I remember with SARS last year, NONE of the numbers were accurate.
In some cases, because they didn't have accurate numbers in some cases because they didn't want to have accurate numbers, and in some cases because they didn't want to release the accurate numbers.