Posted on 04/20/2005 5:22:15 AM PDT by Born Conservative
Yeah, like conservative Pennsylvanians ought to see the light and pull those fingers out of their asses.
Don't get me wrong i WANT Santorum and Chaffee (though i dislike Chaffee immensely) to win. I am basically trying to see if we can hold or expand the Senate at this point even if we lost these two. Now as for your statement clarify from "no one" to "someone". I have heard different things at different time regarding polls and Chaffee and handicapped it as an R loss. No biggie
Al Gore and Rick Santorum got almost exactly the same number of votes in 2000: 2,485,000 vs. 2,481,000.
The campaign didn't start yet. Once it starts, Casey will show that he's an idiot. Hopefully it will be enough to keep Santorum in there.
LOL.. Okay, You made my point.
It could be Lucifer Casey or Adolf Casey, It does not matter. If your last name is Casey, You can get elected in this state.
It's like Kennedy to Massachussetts.
What? You're making the Pubbies Senate underdogs in '06? Do you just not pay attention? Look at the numbers.
If Bush starts to bring some of the troops back home we will will be surprised as to who will win. It's not over till it's over.
You're delusional. Fact that the paper doesnt give you the facts doesnt mean that the poll is bogus. Quinnipiac polls are generally well respected. My guess this far out they are probably registered voters. But so what, an incumbent who has a high profile position in the Senate leadership should NOT be trailing in his reelection.
About this poll.
1) They don't give the party breakdown.
2) 72% of Dems in this poll did not know that Bob Casey was pro-life.
10& think he is pro-choice. So 82% of Dems don't know that he is pro-life.
This will hurt him when they find out.
3) It gets better. 48% of Dems would be very or somewhat likely to vote for a third party pro-choice candidate if both major party candidates were pro-life. Only 25% of Republicans would do the same.
This is gonna hurt Casey.
Nope.
Yeah, this comment might have carried a bit more weight had you not posted your previous "Woe is the GOP in '06" message.
It is a shame the current Governor of RI does not run. He is a moderate/conservative and and a veteran to boot. He'd be an excellent senator from RI.
So basically (if this poll is to be believed), about half the Democrats in PA would be very or somewhat likely to vote for a pro-choice ind. candidate.
That doesn't mean they all will, but it does mean that they are not going to be enthusiastic about voting for Casey-- which will damper turnout.
Why is this going to hurt him? It's only one issue and Casey is probably much more to their liking overall than a member of the Republican Senate leadership. Just because PA conservatives act stupidly doesnt mean that the Dems will too.
"What? You're making the Pubbies Senate underdogs in '06? Do you just not pay attention? Look at the numbers."
Hi Coop I missed you ;)
I wouldnt say underdogs but not as strong as i would like for a couple of reasons. Funds for Dems in the Senate is Double that of the RNSC. Granted it is early but not a good sign (read it yesterday even though Rs outraised the Dems money in the bank Dems have double). Also polls (yes i know poll naysaying but just as a reference) show Rs not doing well due to Social Security
Another is PA and RI being at LEAST competitive. Not saying we will lose it but want to be sure that even if we lose these seats perhaps we can still expand the Senate.
For a few reasons.
1) Alot of Dem turnout depends on hard core urban and suburban voters for whom abortion is like a sacrament.
With Casey, the Dems are not just nominating a Dem who happens to be pro-life, but the son of the Man who (in the eyes of the pro-aborts) almost got Roe v. Wade overturned.
This will be tough for them to swallow.
2) I expect most will eventually vote for Casey, but there will be a sig. number who won't, plus their enthusiasm for voting will decrease.
I don't at the end of the day think that Casey will be able to make up for this.
Read my other posting.
Almost half the Dems polled said they WOULD BE VERY LIKELY OR SOMEWHAT LIKELY TO VOTE AGAINST A DEM AND FOR A THIRD PARTY PRO CHOICE CANDIDATE IF THE DEM CANDIDATE WAS PROLIFE.
So clearly for half the Dems in PA this is not just "another issue".
North Dakota: The Dems have held one Senate seat since 1960 and the other since 1987. Conrad wins easily except if GOP Governor John Hoeven runs.
Nebraska: The GOP may strike a deal with Nelson not to run a strong candidate against him in return for getting his vote on some key issues.
Exactly Dave.. I think there are some people here removed from reality. They are either, A. Not Residents of Pennsylvania.. or B. Dilusional, Blind Optimists.
Santorum is a longshot to hold his seat.
I know this is a hard concept for people to grab, but the Dems have a very powerful candidate, more powerful than alot of people on here understand and know, and Rick Santorum is a conservative in a moderate/light blue state.
It's almost the equivellant of the Republicans trotting out Arnold Schwarzenegger in California.
I will be stunned if Santorum carries the day here against the Casey name.
We need to face reality and the truth is that PA is trending 'Rat. It has gone 'Rat in the last four presidential elections and elected a Philly machine 'Rat as Governor. Santorum's conservative leanings will be bucking a strong 'Rat undercurrent. He, and the national GOP, are going to have to fight like hell to hold this seat. While it is true that there is a year and a half to go before the vote, starting out this far behind puts you in a big hole. Playing catchup, especially from this far back, is generally not where an incumbent wants to be. The 'Rats will keep Santorum on the defensive by linking his conservative message with George Bush, and 'Pubs generally don't play well on the defensive side of the ball.
It's not about the number of Democrats who split and vote third party.
More importantly, it's about the number of moderate Republicans (and there's ALOT OF THEM in this state), who go over and vote for Casey.
And those numbers of Republican crossovers will be in the hundreds of thousands!!
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