Posted on 04/20/2005 5:22:15 AM PDT by Born Conservative
HARRISBURG, Pa. - Democrat Robert P. Casey Jr. holds a 14-percentage-point lead over Republican Sen. Rick Santorum in the 2006 campaign for Santorum's seat, according to an independent poll released Wednesday.
Casey, Pennsylvania's state treasurer and son of the late governor, was favored by 49 percent of the respondents in the Quinnipiac University poll, compared to 35 percent for the second-term incumbent. Thirteen percent were undecided.
The widening of Casey's lead, from 46-41 percent in a Quinnipiac survey in February, comes on the heels of Santorum's high-profile advocacy of two controversial causes - President Bush's Social Security overhaul plan and congressional intervention in the Terry Schiavo case.
Casey has stayed largely out of the public eye since announcing on March 4 that he planned to take on Santorum. His announcement came at the urging of national Democratic leaders and after two prospective opponents for the nomination stepped aside. He still faces opposition from Chuck Pennacchio, a college professor who has not run for office before.
"Santorum has become a more controversial public figure in the past two months and Bob Casey, without doing much of anything to attract headlines, is the beneficiary," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Connecticut-based university's polling institute.
The 1,395 respondents in the poll were asked how Santorum's role in the Social Security battle and the Schiavo case affected their view of him. In each case, one-third or more said it made them less likely to vote for him. About 15 percent said it made them more likely to support Santorum. More than 40 percent said those controversies made no difference to them.
Forty-eight percent said they approved of the way Santorum, the No. 3 Republican in the Senate, is handling his job. Thirty-five percent said they disapproved. In the February poll, 52 percent approved and 31 percent disapproved.
The statewide poll was conducted between April 13 and Monday. It carries a sampling error margin of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.
Main reason is that the conservative wing of PA politics has turned its back on Santorum. Pretty foolish, if you ask me. Beggars can't be choosers.
I'm not totally stunned.. Casey is very popular here. There's still plenty of coattails from his daddy left to ride.
If the election were held today, without a campaign, I would guess Casey would win by about 6.. Maybe a little more.
Not the situation you want to be in as an incumbent, down 6-8 to your challenger before the campaign even began.
Don't underestimate Santorum on the stump.
Remember 2000.
He got more votes than Al Gore and Gore won the state!
No, Santorum will have tons more money, the filibustering/judicial nominations issue will bring errant conservatives back to the fold, and Casey won't have much fundraising success.
I think Santorum will pull it through.
i figure this one is lost and RI as well
TN is a tossup
dont know anything about any of the others but it probably does not bode well for our team in 06
Rick Did himself in. He lost his base. He supported Spector. Supported hike in min. wage. He is moving to the center to become more of "one of the good old boys." I hate to see the republicans lose a seat but maybe maybe maybe there will be a lesson to be learned.
We all have to relax, the election isn't for another 1 1/2 years, more than a lifetime in politics. Also, one very important thing to remember, nobody (Republicans, RNC, media, Santorum's campaign) has even criticized Casey yet, he's had a free ride, but it won't last.
Specter won. Personally, I think he's way too liberal, but obviously Pennsylvanians do not. All I can say is that if PA conservatives oust Santorum for the sins of Arlen Specter, then they get what they deserve--Casey.
I don't know what Bob Casey Jr.'s politics are, but as I recall, the late Governor was a conservative Democrat -- very much pro-life among other things.
Never cared much for Santorum. Too arrogant, too smug, too condescending. I remember when "family values" became the "in" phrase. He trotted out his wife and litter of kids and told everyone what a family values guy he was. Whoopee!...just because he knocked up his wife a half dozen times, that doesn't make him a family values guy.
If he's anything like his father, I wouldn't be too unhappy if Casey beat Santorum.
What about Zogby? :)
How can you say we are going to lose RI when the dems can't even find a candidate? Both of their dem Reps, Patrick Kennedy and I can't remember the other guy's name, have said no. Also, we're going to win in MN and WA, Mark Dayton and Maria Cantwell are toast.
DM1
First of all, no one is running against Chaffee, so he's pretty much cruising to re-election (unless he is defeated in a gop primary).
Second, Ford is polling really really badly in Tenn, his own dem biased polls show him behind any republican challenger.
We really only have one seat to worry about. This one. That's it.
The Dems have to worry about.
Washington
Michigan
Minnesota
Nebraska
North Dakota
Florida
Maryland
West Virginia
Also
Wisconsin (I've heard Kohl may retire and Thompson would jump in).
The question isn't will we pick up seats in 2006, but how many?
I completely agree with your post, thank you for your sensible analysis.
Casey is nothing like his father (his father would never deign to associate himself with Chuck Schumer).
Second, well if you want lower taxes and good judges, then voting for Casey is probably the stupidest thing ever.
Casey is only "pro-life" in the sense that Harry Reid is.
When push comes to shove, Casey would be another vote to filibuster judges.
Vote Santorum.
Sorry, You're being way too optimistic.
Santorum was running against Ron Klink, a horrendous candidate that offered no challenge at all to Santorum. An unknown congressman from Philadelphia that didn't even show up in the ring to fight Santorum.
Casey is wildly popular here, He narrowly missed a congressional seat in a Strong GOP area back in 98 (I think it was 98). An area where Bush carried by over 65% both times, Casey lost by 1 or 2 points, and his margin of victory in his state office races were the largest of all the races. He can win easily by double digits against nearly any non-incumbent in the state.
I would rate Santorum's chances at holding his seat, at well below 50%, probably more like 25-30%.
If you gave me 4-1 on Santorum right now, I don't think I would take the bet.
If Santorum can somehow hold his seat, In My Opinion, He immediately goes to #1 on the short-list to be Republican Nominee for President in 2008.
Are you kidding? The DNC will pump money into Casey's campaign. All Santorum had going for him in Pa with Catholic Dems was his pro-life stance; Casey neutralizes that.
You don't get it. This is not personal with respect to Santorum. The issue is not whether Santorum loses his seat or gets punished by his supporters. The issue is whether conservatives are going to be adequately represented. They sure as heck are not going to be represented by Casey. Ousting Santorum on the theory that he got what he deserved is like cutting off your nose to spite your face.
The primary reason conservatives can't exercise control in politics is that the minute their leaders do something they don't like, they pull the rug out from under them. It's easy to break the eggs, not so easy to put them back together.
If the GOP loses control of the Senate, it may be another 50 years before they regain it again. By that time, the little temper tantrum PA conservatives thru over Santorum's support for Specter will seem pretty petty.
Does anyone REALLY BELIEVE that Rick is 14 points down? Smells like a rat push poll to me.
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