Don't underestimate Santorum on the stump.
Remember 2000.
He got more votes than Al Gore and Gore won the state!
No, Santorum will have tons more money, the filibustering/judicial nominations issue will bring errant conservatives back to the fold, and Casey won't have much fundraising success.
I think Santorum will pull it through.
Sorry, You're being way too optimistic.
Santorum was running against Ron Klink, a horrendous candidate that offered no challenge at all to Santorum. An unknown congressman from Philadelphia that didn't even show up in the ring to fight Santorum.
Casey is wildly popular here, He narrowly missed a congressional seat in a Strong GOP area back in 98 (I think it was 98). An area where Bush carried by over 65% both times, Casey lost by 1 or 2 points, and his margin of victory in his state office races were the largest of all the races. He can win easily by double digits against nearly any non-incumbent in the state.
I would rate Santorum's chances at holding his seat, at well below 50%, probably more like 25-30%.
If you gave me 4-1 on Santorum right now, I don't think I would take the bet.
If Santorum can somehow hold his seat, In My Opinion, He immediately goes to #1 on the short-list to be Republican Nominee for President in 2008.
Are you kidding? The DNC will pump money into Casey's campaign. All Santorum had going for him in Pa with Catholic Dems was his pro-life stance; Casey neutralizes that.
And what are the errant Pennsylvania establishment Republicans going to do to make them feel so welcome after making them feel so unwelcome?
"Casey won't have much fundraising success."
LOL yeah right.