Posted on 05/06/2005 5:36:10 AM PDT by MadIvan
Tony Blair may have secured a historic third term for the Labour Party last night but the reduction in the size of his majority will significantly change the way in which he is able to act.
His power and his position in the party have depended almost entirely on the perception since his landslide victory in 1997 that he is a winner. In many parts of the country that has now been undermined.
Last night's result could make it more difficult for the Prime Minister to stay in office for the whole of the next Parliament as he promised to do when he said last year that he intended to stand down.
Mr Blair's allies have been admitting privately for several weeks that he would almost certainly have to resign if the Labour majority fell below 60. In the view of many Blairites, 60 to 70 was a grey area which would leave the party leader severely weakened.
Yesterday, before the result was declared, some ministers close to the Labour leader said he would stay at Number 10 for as long as possible.
Other Blairites, though, have detected a change in the Prime Minister's mood during a difficult campaign.
"I think he'll go in about 18 months," said one loyal minister earlier in the week. "Whatever the outcome of the election, he's been badly damaged by the campaign."
Another Labour strategist admitted that Mr Blair's morale had been badly affected by the criticisms he had received from voters on the stump.
"Tony has been shocked by the level of hostility to him personally in the run-up to polling day. No one can know what effect that will have."
However long Mr Blair decides to stay in Downing Street, the reduction in the size of Labour's parliamentary majority will make it much more difficult for him to do what he wants.
The Government will struggle to get controversial legislation, such as proposals to introduce identity cards, on to the statute book now that the number of Labour MPs has been reduced.
Mr Blair may find it hard to implement "unremittingly New Labour" reforms of the public services with a smaller and potentially more rebellious parliamentary party. This month's Queen's Speech is expected to include around 40 Bills.
These will put forward proposals to increase the role of the private sector in the running of state services, plans to create a points system for immigration, and measures to give parents more power to close down failing schools.
Several of these pieces of proposed legislation will be controversial with Labour backbenchers, who are likely to feel emboldened.
Mr Blair may also find it harder to assert his authority on a number of big policy issues, not dealt with in the Labour manifesto, which are due to come to a head in the next six months.
Adair Turner's review of pensions and Sir Michael Lyons's review of local government funding, both due to report before the end of the year, will provoke wide-ranging discussions about the future of savings and the fate of the council tax.
This summer, Labour intends to initiate a public debate on energy policy, which will consider whether the role of nuclear power stations should be increased.
At the same time the Government will consult voters about proposals to replace the road tax with a road pricing system, which would see motorists charged according to the distance they drive.
Hanging over the whole Parliament, meanwhile, will be the question of whether Labour will have to raise taxes again to fund its plans for the public services. Nobody knows whether the love-in between Mr Blair and the Chancellor will continue once the common goal of victory has gone, but the election result is likely to strengthen Gordon Brown's hand.
Most insiders believe that an understanding has been reached between the two on the future of the Government and of their own careers.
In return for the Chancellor's support, Mr Blair has signalled his intention to endorse Mr Brown to succeed him as Labour leader. The handover may come more quickly now.
wake me up when this is over.
Well, I understand why you feel the way you do. If you get over being disgusted -- a feeling you're entitled to -- I hope you will come back. Your country is America's best and truest friend.
When is the candlelight vigil?
But seriously, what's going on on this site? A few of your allies are leaving and you're feeling like you're losing control of the forum? Or do you also protest when a hardcore libertarian or "far-right" poster leaves? I highly doubt it.
Ivan...
I know that you have many replies to your post so this is one of many. I wish you well and hope that you will reconsider and return soon.
FYI, I am among those who wholeheartedly support the British. I am thankful for the close alliance which shall not be shaken by the rhetorical and political machinations of a few extremist reactionaries.
See you in the funny papers...
Well, damn.
I for one will miss the hell out of you. I have no beef with Britain - after all, if it weren't for y'all we wouldn't be here - and anyone who doesn't recognize that Tony Blair did us the favor of the century by joining us for the war is just butt-stupid.
All the best to you in whatever you choose to pursue, and if you become famous, let us know . . . I've always wanted a chance to use Wodehouse's line about following someone's future career with considerable interest. ;)
Allow me to join the chorus of those that wish you would reconsider.
Sorry, but I do not think I am being out of line calling for folks to police their own ranks on a thread that has so many people decrying incivility. I am posting this in a civil tone - so why do you want me to drop this request?
Nothing comes even close, that I've seen.
Dan
"You're not a true conservative if you believe/don't believe the following:"
"You are not a true Christian unless you think as I do."
"The (choose any denomination or faith) is not the true religion and is the work of the devil."
I also would like an end to calling public figures vulgar names, and that includes both Mrs. Bush and Senator Clinton. It is unnecessary and makes this forum look like a bunch of high schoolers.
I would also like disagreements to remain disagreements on policy issues, rather than deteriorating into insults because the posters get personal.
I've always enjoyed your postings and your insight.
You will be sorely missed by this Freeper.
Good luck! Stay Well! Stay Safe!
Dang! Our door is always open for you!
I have enjoyed more than a few of your posts and appreciate your English wit, your English manners, and sometimes the sharp toe of your English boot. I am sorry you are leaving under these circumstances. Many of us are sympathetic and quite fond of our British cousins, but obviously there is also "that element."
I shall lift a mug of claret in your honour.
I agree. Ivan, maybe you can take a few weeks off and come back and see if the tone of the forum has improved. I really think the Terri episode had a serious impact, even more than the Elian episode, and it will take awhile for the aftershocks to settle down. But they will.
It's not a few; and it's not all my buddies; until the last four months, even the ones of us who wanted to kill each other could agree on certain subjects and laugh with each other.
It started with the Kidd Rock threads and accelerated from that point on. Now if you put up a NASA thread about the moon, somebody immediately posts that it's too bad that Terri can't see the moon but she was murdered.
Thanks. Glad you're a big enough person to do that.
"I also would like an end to calling public figures vulgar names, and that includes both Mrs. Bush and Senator Clinton. It is unnecessary and makes this forum look like a bunch of high schoolers."
I agree with you there. Add Chelsea to that list. There's no excuse for it.
I'm not normally a person who expresses much emotion in public (apart from disdain for the Left) - but I have to thank everyone deeply and sincerely from the bottom of my heart for all the very kind things that have been said. I had no idea that the things I had said had reached so far and wide...and I'm very touched.
I have to say that the Mods have asked me to reconsider, and I've agreed to think about it - to their credit, they've reassured me that they are concerned about the same things I'm concerned about.
I'm not sure what else to say except again...thank you everyone...for your kindness and friendship, which is a large part of why I've been here as long as I have been.
Best Regards, Ivan
Ivan. My foray into conservatism began when I was introduced to Baroness Thatcher in the 1970s. I believe that her leadership at that time set the stage for the emergence of Reagan and conservatism in the States. I hope that American conservatism will foster the emergence of conservatism once again in the UK.
I will not plead with you to stay on. Your posts have been insightful and cogent. Pity that the spew of so many troglodytes is beginning to have its affect on this board. Your threads subsequent to 9/11 and during our conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq threw so much light during those days. You will be missed, but you will not be forgotten. Hasta luego, amigo and Vaya con Dios.
YEAH!!!!!
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