Posted on 05/06/2005 5:36:10 AM PDT by MadIvan
Tony Blair may have secured a historic third term for the Labour Party last night but the reduction in the size of his majority will significantly change the way in which he is able to act.
His power and his position in the party have depended almost entirely on the perception since his landslide victory in 1997 that he is a winner. In many parts of the country that has now been undermined.
Last night's result could make it more difficult for the Prime Minister to stay in office for the whole of the next Parliament as he promised to do when he said last year that he intended to stand down.
Mr Blair's allies have been admitting privately for several weeks that he would almost certainly have to resign if the Labour majority fell below 60. In the view of many Blairites, 60 to 70 was a grey area which would leave the party leader severely weakened.
Yesterday, before the result was declared, some ministers close to the Labour leader said he would stay at Number 10 for as long as possible.
Other Blairites, though, have detected a change in the Prime Minister's mood during a difficult campaign.
"I think he'll go in about 18 months," said one loyal minister earlier in the week. "Whatever the outcome of the election, he's been badly damaged by the campaign."
Another Labour strategist admitted that Mr Blair's morale had been badly affected by the criticisms he had received from voters on the stump.
"Tony has been shocked by the level of hostility to him personally in the run-up to polling day. No one can know what effect that will have."
However long Mr Blair decides to stay in Downing Street, the reduction in the size of Labour's parliamentary majority will make it much more difficult for him to do what he wants.
The Government will struggle to get controversial legislation, such as proposals to introduce identity cards, on to the statute book now that the number of Labour MPs has been reduced.
Mr Blair may find it hard to implement "unremittingly New Labour" reforms of the public services with a smaller and potentially more rebellious parliamentary party. This month's Queen's Speech is expected to include around 40 Bills.
These will put forward proposals to increase the role of the private sector in the running of state services, plans to create a points system for immigration, and measures to give parents more power to close down failing schools.
Several of these pieces of proposed legislation will be controversial with Labour backbenchers, who are likely to feel emboldened.
Mr Blair may also find it harder to assert his authority on a number of big policy issues, not dealt with in the Labour manifesto, which are due to come to a head in the next six months.
Adair Turner's review of pensions and Sir Michael Lyons's review of local government funding, both due to report before the end of the year, will provoke wide-ranging discussions about the future of savings and the fate of the council tax.
This summer, Labour intends to initiate a public debate on energy policy, which will consider whether the role of nuclear power stations should be increased.
At the same time the Government will consult voters about proposals to replace the road tax with a road pricing system, which would see motorists charged according to the distance they drive.
Hanging over the whole Parliament, meanwhile, will be the question of whether Labour will have to raise taxes again to fund its plans for the public services. Nobody knows whether the love-in between Mr Blair and the Chancellor will continue once the common goal of victory has gone, but the election result is likely to strengthen Gordon Brown's hand.
Most insiders believe that an understanding has been reached between the two on the future of the Government and of their own careers.
In return for the Chancellor's support, Mr Blair has signalled his intention to endorse Mr Brown to succeed him as Labour leader. The handover may come more quickly now.
(crude) Why, hell, honey! We can fix that! Southwest flys from Texas to Bama every day! (/crude)
I can't believe I said something so un-gentlemanly! ;-/
You will be missed. 'Pod.
What part of "quit being the type of person Mad Ivan is talking about" do you not understand?
Congratulations MadIvan ~ this forum needs more free thinkers!
Be Ever Vigilant!
Well now I think my husband might object to that! Now see aren't you glad there is no rating system to grade you on your ungentlemanly behavior? :)
Yes ~ The lunatic left disrupters have infiltrated this site pretending to be conservative ~ they are being divisive ~ they will not succeed!
Be Ever Vigilant!
Let Freedom Reign!
Urban/rural split.
Huzzah!! :-)
Off topic, Old Friend, but I was listening to Bob Dole on Imus this morning, and he was lauding Major Tammy Duckworth as a true American hero. He said she wants to get back into her helicopter and get back to Iraq.
Just thought you'd want to know.
For those who don't know, Major Tammy Duckworth lost both her legs when her helicopter was hit by rocket fire in Iraq last year. A helluva woman.
Sorry for veering from topic....
Why do you suppose that is? You would think that the more urban areas would want less gov't. In cities gov't is interfering in businesses, personal choices, etc. You would think those living in the cities would tire of it.
Urban areas are used to government, are more collectivists, have more crime, and ask for more government services. A lot of academia lives in urban areas as well.
Rural areas are more fiercely independent and resent "flatlanders" telling them how to run their town.
When the mod's zap some more of "Stuck's" goofy posts ~ anyone that's stuck should look at their attachment to being "stuck" ~ we are all where we are because we choose to be there.
I always enjoy your contributions here.
Speaking as an ardent Anglophile, I cannot deny that there is a good deal in British society today that leaves much to be desired. But then, it must be said, that goes for my side of the pond as well in certain ways. The same cultural rot is at work in both societies. On this, I think, we're both agreed.
Hope you'll change your mind and sneak in every now and then. God bless.
We certainly appreciate our British cousins' explanations of the Parlimentary system, etc. We can take vacations in Britain and not learn anywhere near as much we do from our British Freepers.
It's true that there's not enough of you all on FR, but I don't how we can lure more Brits in unless.
maybe we could post this photo on conservative British websites and swear that it's FR's Fresno, CA headquarters?:)
Very good news.
I am a relative newcomer on this board but I have valued your insightful comments.
Only someone that hates America would deny the contributions of the UK.
It is true that as this board has grown larger many different people have been attracted (me among others).
There are some that purposefully try to create antagonism and hostility because they are trolls.
Others are causing confusion simply because they are misguided and often times can be corrected by a more knowledgeable poster.
I believe this board would be incomplete without having our allies add their perspectives.
Ditto!
God bless you, MadIvan. :-)
This thread was full of unnecessary vicious attacks on the principals in this event, all personal, and loaded with many foul and sexual innuendos that the posters thought were funny and cute. I suppose my rant didn't do much good, but I feel better for doing it. I hate things that reflect badly on this board that I love so much.
Zell Miller's new book is on the stands. It's called "A Deficit of Dignity". Some of the bitter losers, nasty cynics and classless comedians who add nothing to our discussion threads except "look at me" should pick up a copy of Zell's book and read it.
Ivan, you and I signed up here around the same date. We're long-timers from the great class of '98. We came through the rough times. We're tested and will persevere. No one runs us off.
All these years I never failed to read every one of your posts that I spotted. You will leave a tremendous void if you leave. Please think this over.
Bahama Mama wants to see you on a freeper cruise in the future. We'll hoist an ale and raise a toast or two (or three) to our great countries. With regards and admiration,
Leni
I'll celebrate your good news tonight with my standard FR Happy Event treat......a double chocolate Dove Ice Cream Bar (chocolate ice cream and dark chocolate coating, oh, my).
Here's to you, kid (my best Bogie voice).
Leni
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