A couple of points: While the Preakness is 1/16 of a mile shorter than the Derby, the configuration of the race is the same, i.e., they start at the top of the stretch, make the long run through the stretch the first time, usually go single file, or at worst two-wide, around the first turn. Then, they straighten out on the backstretch and several horses make runs at the leaders. They enter the stretch with usually no more than four horses still in contention. The others have hit their stamina wall, in the same place or even earlier than the longer Derby.
Most of the horses in the Preakness will never run this far or farther again in their lives. It's a long distance in modern American racing.
The horses have been engaged in a war of attrition since February. Increasingly longer races are sapping their strength. Look for Afleet Alex, who lugged in late in the Derby, a sign of exhaustion, to be the surprise dull horse in this race. Closing Argument fought a long battle with Afleet Alex and may be similarly wilted as his trainer says he doesn't like running back in two weeks. High Fly showed his lack of ability at this distance in the Derby.
Giacomo wasn't asked to get in top condition until just before the Derby and bounded down the stretch and is happy and bouncing again. Similarly, Wilko was cranked up earlier and was running well in the Derby when bumped. Greeley's Galaxy got a bad start and was hustled forward too soon, running incredibly fast internal fractions. Scrappy T comes off a nice win in the Withers. Noble Causeway was dead-stopped just before the first turn in the Derby.
Giacomo-Wilko-Scrappy T-Greeley's Galaxy-Noble Causeway.
I could be wrong.
I think I am going to put a bet on Going Wild since the handicapper for Daily Herald thought he had no chance at all to win. Since a lot of horses I hate usually win big I figure he has a better chance then my favorites. I may also place a bet on Scrappy T.(love the name and could pay for a lot of scooby snacks.)