[Josh in PA]

He was a logical contender if you analyzed the race correctly.

The hot pace was a shoe-in. When you get rabbits in the race like Spanish Chestnut, it throws EVERYTHING out the window.. Anyone near that pace is meat.

Natural closers are all contenders, Doesn't matter who they are or how they've run.

The Southern California horses, who were spit on before the Derby, finished 4 in the Top 6, for another very logical reason that's been overlooked by "mainstream" horse racing handicappers who think they know the sport.

To win at horse racing you have to examine hundreds of variables and determine the REAL odds of each horse winning the race.

Giacomo was a gigantic overlay at 50-1 (overlay being chances were much better than the odds you were getting). With the pace scenario, I had his real chances at around 10-1.

If you are good at analyzing chances of horses to win (I got a big ego), you can quit your day job betting on 50-1 horses who are going to win one out of 10 times.

[Tanniker Smith]

Either way it goes, I think if I place a bet, I'm going to do like a lot of Derby exacta winners did: I'm playing birthdays. The MM/DD birthdays of me, my wife and my two kids can all be played. And I might through in my nephew, too, because he's born on the 13th (Giacomo!).

Sadly, this won't give me any trifecta unless I run to birthdays together or split the year into "9" and n.

TS

[jjmcgo]

Your post is the essence of intelligent gambling.