I don't think the pace will be fast enough for Giacomo to win this.
There are certain fractions a thoroughbred horse can run, FOR A LONG TIME without fatiguing.
Have you ever ran track in High School or do you jog alot? Every living animal (including human beings and horses) has their own "peak" speed or exertion point where when they hit it, they tire quickly!
I can run 3 minute 1/2 miles for an hour!.. But if I try to run my first half mile in 2 minutes 30 seconds, I am well past my exertion point.. I can no longer maintain that 3 minute 1/2 mile pace!! My conditioning won't allow it.
There's a curve there, where the faster I run past 3:00 minutes, the faster I will tire.
Horses are just like this. Depending on the track surface, The Grade 1 thoroughbreds you see can run :47 second 1/2 miles for miles and miles and miles without tiring a bit.. and they have almost as much energy available in the tank as the horse behind them who ran the 1/2 mile in :48, but the horse who just ran the :47 has a 5 length lead and is barely worn out at all.. He's only jogging.
When you start getting these horses down to :46 and :45 seconds (Derby was 45 1/5th, anyone within 4 lengths was running under :46), they tired very rapidly. The second 1/2 mile was ran in :50 SECONDS!!
Giacomo was more than 15 lengths (about 3 seconds) off this pace.. he only ran a :48 in the first half, he's still fresh.
Now, in the Preakness.. If everybody runs a :47 or :48 to open the race.. Giacomo doesn't have a prayer. If Giacomo doesn't challenge that pace, he's running :49 to open the race and everybody else is 10 length's ahead and at about the same fatigue level (remember, these horses can run :48 for several miles)
I gave Giacomo 10-1 in the Derby.. and it was a bet (Payout 50-1) I would give him 15-1 or 20-1 to win this race.. that's not a smart bet with a 6-1 payout.
And let's not forget this race is a little shorter also.
And your just as full of it as many of the ex "professional" gamblers on skid row. They know everything there is to know about horse racing, except how to keep money in their pockets.
I'm going to hold you to your 11 horse.
You can do all the handicapping in the world and the odds may benefit you in the long run, but if the horse you pick isn't in the mood to run that day, it's all for not. Secretariat could be running and it wouldn't matter. And that's the beauty of horse racing.
Pace is the reason that horses that tire at six furlongs, win at seven furlongs. For those horses, the slower early pace of a seven-rulong race is more suited to their best effort.