Experts: Petroleum May Be Nearing a Peak

Yahoo/ AP ^ | 5/28/2005 | Staff Writers

[ClaireSolt]

As long as states refuse offshore drilling and have other policies that interfere with energy production, the cost is not high enough.

[Camel Joe]

Drivel, pure simple and unadulterated drivel.

[ex-Texan]

If Hodar is correct about using natural waste products to make fuel, then perhaps we can add "pure and unadulterated drivel" to the mix? What a better way to get rid of human and animal waste (Shi'ite) than driving your car down the freeway!

[Uncle Hal]

When I was in college, 1960 or so, some people were predicting that we would run out of oil by the year 2000. The reason we did not run out of oil is that have better equipment to get the oil, better science to discover oil, and we have become more efficient in our use of petroluem products. The law of supply and demand dictates that when the price of oil (or any product) becomes too expensive to use efficiently other sources will be developed that will take the place of oil, This point will come long before we are out of oil. In other words if the price of oil reaches say $5.00 a gallon at the pump, we will gradually switch to some other energy source. Maybe solar, hydrogen, atomic. who knows, may be it will be something we do not even know about at this time. That is the beauty of the free enterprise system. I grant you, the price of transition may be painful and uncomfortable at times but it will be done. I will be long dead before this happens. Any way, these are my thoughts.

[xrp]

As an expert FReeper, I can confidently predict that the re-posting of this very same article is reaching a peak, as more FReepers learn to use the search function.

Hah! I nominate this for Post of the Day!

[AlaskaErik]

I remember the same old story in the 70's. At the height of the scare, I had lunch with a geologist from Shell. He told me it was all BS, there was more oil we didn't know about than oil we did.

An acquaintance of mine says the same thing. He spent 25 years flying to Gulf oil rigs and has talked with many execs and geologists about the subject.

[ex-Texan]

By the time gas and diesel reaches $ 4 a gallon our economy will be stumbling to a halt. Fuel costs effect the cost of everything from the cost of products in stores (food, clothing, cosmetics, medicine, etc.) to the cost of local services. If fuel costs ever reach $ 5 a gallon, there will be thousands losing their jobs because of a severe recession. A few months later, there will be many bankruptcies and foreclosures.

Out dependency on oil for fuel is idiotic beyond belief. It also guarantees increasing tensions in the Middle East and other oil producing nations. Venezuela is just one more example. Who controls Chavez? Castro. Why is Venezuela reducing its oil production? Castro may have more to do with oil production than the we would like to think about. This dependency on foreign oil has too many hidden social, political and economic costs to list here.

Feel free to flame away. I wear asbestos underwear. Just an old geezer living in the Peoples Republic of Oregon.

[onedoug]

f(x) technolgy & private investment. It's near limitless.

[defenderSD]

What time is it now in Iraq? You make a lot of posts during the morning hours on the US west coast.

[MikefromOhio]

I am not in Iraq anymore :) I have been home for nearly 5 months now....

when I was over in Iraq, I worked the midnight shift quite often and, as an IT guy, I had ready access to a computer and the internet. If everything was working well, as it is today, then I had some time on my hands.

Right now it is approximately 943 PM or 2143 hrs in Iraq

[Einigkeit_Recht_Freiheit]

Get ready. China and India have only had thier first, highly addictive, petroleum cocktail, and they are a lot closer to the liquor cabinet.

Come on that is actually paying attention to global trends in relation to geopolitical concerns with massive economic and military impact. Now why would we something insignificant like that get in the way of us driving Hummers? Cause you need a Hummer man.

[defenderSD]

I think you're being too tough on Goldman Sachs. In their report, Goldman wrote "we may be at the start of an oil price super-spike that will send oil to $105." They never predicted when the price would reach this level and they never said it was a certainty. Corzine notwithstanding, there are some really smart, well connected people at GS and as an investor you have to pay attention to what they say.

From everything I've read, it looks like we're a long away from $105 oil. In an apparent paradox, I think it will take a major increase in vehicle fuel economy combined with a huge increase in the number of vehicles for oil to ever reach $105. Only through a big improvement in fuel economy will people be able to afford the $4 per gallon gasoline that would result from $105 oil. But with big gains in fuel economy combined with a billion new vehicles in China, India, etc, we could hit $105 oil in 15-20 years. It could happen, but IMHO it ain't likely in this decade.

[defenderSD]

Welcome home big guy.
;-)

[MikefromOhio]

thanks :-)

[RightWhale]

If it is at it's peak, then I wonder if it has stabilized?

What peak? Not price, certainly. They are talking about production.

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It is too late.

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We are headed straight for the cliff and going at top speed. It is too late to talk about alternative fuels and the rest. We won't be able to conserve our way out of this. Most probable peak is five years off, which can be moved either way about five years. Best case, ten years, worst case this year. In any case we are going off the cliff--throttle wide open. Enjoy the ride.

[RightWhale]

Many times I have tried to get up an interest in economics, those marginal demand curves, the air of old-style magic. But, it's no good. I can picture a time chart of the price of oil and refined products superimposed on the price of bread. There is a limit to how far the prices will climb, of course, but we will think $2 bread and $2 gasoline was cheap and probably wonder how they did it. Those who are left to wonder. That is the dark side of the Hubbert scenario--the reduced population.

[Petronski]

Goldman Sachs predicted $ 105 a barrel two months ago.

That was an obvious and clumsy attempt to manipulate the market.

[defenderSD]

Are you serious in posts 35 and 36 or are you being sarcastic and mocking the gloom-and-doomers?

[litehaus]

Said it 4, say it again: Gotta stop them dern Indians and Chinese from all getting motorscooters! They'll RUIN the enviroment!

[RightWhale]

When I was in college, 1960 or so, some people were predicting that we would run out of oil by the year 2000

In those days nobody had a clue about the odds of running out. They knew we had 20-40 years of proven reserves, which is quite a bit different from thinking we will run out. Proven reserves have always been in that range, ever since Oil City. Proven reserves are in that range even now.

What is changing is the quality of the oil and the cost to produce it.