The Fall of Europe

London — The rejection of the proposed European constitution this week has plunged the European Union into its most serious crisis since the Treaty of Rome was signed in 1957. The vote has also dealt a savage blow to the Franco-German vision of ever-closer economic and political integration.

It is safe to assume that few of the millions who flocked to the polls in France and the Netherlands had studied the 400-odd esoteric clauses of the draft constitution (or understood them, if they had). They voted "no" for a variety of reasons: They fear a further loss of sovereignty to Brussels; a further dilution of their national identity; a further dismantling of their "social model," with its protective subsidies and welfare; a further expansion of the EU, with its influx of workers from cheap labor markets in Eastern Europe; and the proposed EU membership of Turkey, with its 100 million Muslims.

But the uniting thread that transcended the political divide — in France, at least — was anger at an aloof, unresponsive establishment. French voters were signalling that they had lost trust in the political elite and that the political elite had lost touch with them. Their response was the 21st-century equivalent of the storming of the Bastille. The 2005 revolution might have been bloodless, but the revolutionary tumbrels will continue to echo in Chirac's ears as long as he remains in the Elys e Palace.

Chirac has been grievously wounded, but he is unlikely to "draw the conclusions," as did Charles de Gaulle, who resigned after losing a key referendum in 1969. He will, however, be confined to the enclosure reserved for lame ducks until his presidential term expires in 2007.

Their response was the 21st-century equivalent of the storming of the Bastille.

I cannot imagine a less apt metaphor. Whatever it was, the rejection in France of the EU constitution was not a spontaneous uprising of the impovershed, disestablished, disenfranchised, and desperate mob against unresponsive, illigitimate and unaccountable government. While the elites in Brussels are certainly unaccountable, they are anything but unresponsive to the demands of a socialist minded middle class. The majority who voted against the constitution were not impoverished and did not vote to overthrow the establishment but to assure that they themselves remained the establishment.

Whatever happened in the Netherlands, by all accounts the French voted to further insulate themselves from the pain of free markets. In doing so they said, absolutely in character for the French, "damn the Union, socialism in France über alles". We will not permit Brussels to force us to swallow medicine even for our own good and if that leads to the destruction of the European Union, so be it.

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