Posted on 06/16/2005 2:42:01 PM PDT by Ravi
NEW YORK — Could it be Clinton versus Giuliani in 2008? If the two major political parties were selecting their nominees today, New York Sen. Hillary Clinton (search) would be the choice for Democrats and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (search) for the Republicans.
In the latest FOX News poll, Clinton trounces the competition and receives the backing of 44 percent of self-described Democrats. Familiar names — the party’s 2004 ticket — follow her: Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry (search) receives 17 percent and former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards 14 percent.
Among self-described Republicans, Giuliani (29 percent) edges out Arizona Sen. John McCain (search) (26 percent). No others receive double-digit support, but former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is closest at 9 percent.
Opinion Dynamics Corporation conducted the national telephone poll of 900 registered voters for FOX News on June 14-15.
Most voters think it is likely that a woman will be on one of the presidential tickets in 2008, either as a presidential or vice presidential candidate. Over three-quarters think it is likely and more than 4 in 10 think it is "very likely" (44 percent). Hedging their bets, women (75 percent) are slightly less likely than men (81 percent) to think it is likely a female will be on a 2008 ticket.
(Excerpt) Read more at foxnews.com ...
I'd make myself vote for Giuliani, but I couldn't vote for McCain(Chumpstain)
Ditto
yeah looks like Bush support is still strong and no one regrets their vote. Very interesting the strong support for Giuliani, although at this point it's all name ID. A strong conservative will emerge.
ALLEN/RICE........V........CLINTON/OBAMA
Last year I couldn't wait for the election to be over. Now I already can't waith for the 2008 election to be over.
Actually, this is very strong. FOX has always had depressed scoring in their polls.
If Hillary is their candidate I can vote for any of them in preference to her...3rd party votes are a waste too. That's what got us her husband, never forget.
I could vote for anyone BUT McCain. He is insane and I don't trust him AT ALL.
"ALLEN/RICE........V........CLINTON/OBAMA"
That is my early prediction as well. I feel pretty good going with Allen/Rice - though it really depends on how the war turns out. If Iraq goes into the crapper, Rice is probably done. We know Clinton will likely get the nomination for her party, but I am still shaky on whether she'd pick Obama or go with some Southern moderate.
Still, I think Allen/Rice vs Clinton/Obama is a good bet at the moment.
Longbow
Bush will start losing support with his base if he doesn't do something even if it is wrong. The silent, go along to get along isn't proving anything.
I'm not so sure you want to risk putting Condi Rice on a ticket in 2008.
How much of the time do you agree with Mrs. Clinton?
"How much of the time do you agree with Mrs. Clinton?"
Oh about 10-15% of the time. I did not say I would vote for a Democrat. The last time I did, that SOB war criminal lynden baines johnson started a war to prove how tough he was on Communism. What I am saying is I WILL NOT vote for someone just because he is a Republican. I have done that in the past and regretted it every time. Gerald Ford comes to mind. Bob Dole comes to mind.
""Bush will start losing support with his base if he doesn't do something even if it is wrong. The silent, go along to get along isn't proving anything.""
Boy, youd make a great political advisor
""Gerald Ford comes to mind. Bob Dole comes to mind.""
You regretted voting for Ford and Dole for Presdient?
I seem to recall that neither won, so why would you regret your vote?
"I'm not so sure you want to risk putting Condi Rice on a ticket in 2008."
Allen/Rice is my early prediction, not necessarily my choice.
Saying that, I think Rice is fairly impressive, and though she's never been elected to anything significant so far as I know, I think she may infact be a strong VP choice for whatever Republican wins the nomination. If the war in Iraq is still festering by 07'-08' or appears to have been a US loss, she is politically finished. But if in a couple years Iraq looks generally successful, I think Rice could be an excellent VP candidate.
Longbow
Let me explain the problem Rice, or any black person on a ticket outside of Colin Powell has, as far as 2008.
In 2000, Alabama held a vote on repealing the 100 year old Constitutional Provision banning interracial marriage.
The following counties voted against the repeal: Bibb, Blount, Cherokee, Chilton, Choctaw, Clay, Cleburne, Coosa, Covington, Cullman, DeKalb, Escambia, Fayette, Franklin, Geneva, Jackson, Lamar, Lawrence, Marion, Pickens, Randolph, St. Clair, Walker, Washington, Winston.
When you combine the vote totals in these counties, they rejected the repeal by a margin of 56-44
When you combine the vote of the Big 4 counties: Jefferson (Birmingham), Mobile, Montgomery and Madison (Huntsville), the margin went 69-31 in favor of repeal
The statewide margin on the repeal was 60-40 in favor
In 1998, the pro-ban counties (Bibb, etc) tallied the following gubernatorial vote:
Siegelman (D) 55%
James (R) 45%
The statewide margin was 57-42
The Margin in the Big 4 was
Siegelman (D) 60%
James (R) 40%
The reason James got clobbered is because alot of Republicans either didn't show up, or voted a split ballot because Fob James was opposed by the business community
Now, in 2002, the Big 4 had a margin of:
Siegelman (D) 52%
Riley (R) 48%
The anti-repeal counties had a margin of:
Riley (R) 51%
Siegelman (D) 49%
And as everyone is aware, the statewide margin was
Riley (49%)
Siegelman (49%)
Riley won by a margin of 3000 votes out of 1.35 million cast, even more telling, Riley won Madison County by a margin of 32 votes out of nearly 85,000 cast
Now, as for Presidential Elections, the Big 4 have voted as follows:
1996: Dole 52%, Clinton 48%
2000: Bush 53%, Gore 47%
2004: Bush 56%, Kerry 44%
The statewide margins for the 3 elections are as follows:
1996: Dole 50%, Clinton 43%
2000: Bush 56%, Gore 42%
2004: Bush 63%, Kerry 36%
The margins in the pro-ban counties are as follows
1996: Dole 53%, Clinton 47%
2000: Bush 62%, Gore 38%
2004: Bush 71%, Kerry 29%
One of the pro-ban counties, Jackson, is a big time Democratic bastion. In 2004, W won Jackson County. The last Republican presidential candidate to win it was Richard M Nixon in 1972. The county seat of Jackson County is Scottsboro (see if anyone is up on Southern history)
The above statistics are the reason that it would be political suicide to put Condi Rice on a ticket right now.
"Let me explain the problem Rice, or any black person on a ticket outside of Colin Powell has, as far as 2008."
Why do you believe Colin Powell would fare better than Rice? If you suspect those dynamics would doom a Rice ticket, why would they not do the same to Powell? Is it because Rice is both black and a woman? Because she is less well known than Powell?
Do you really think with Hillary at the top of the Democratic ticket that Alabama voters won't be highly motivated to vote against her - even if the GOP has Condi in the VP slot? Or do you think that it will just depress GOP turnout throughout the South to such a degree that the Republican ticket still wins those states but does so by a smaller margin which significantly cuts into his popular vote?
What about all the positive electoral impacts Condi could have in other areas of the country? She is a reasonably attractive, well spoken individual. Wouldn't having her in the VP slot on a GOP ticket give the Republicans a good opportunity to make inroads in the minority communities?
Longbow
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