Posted on 06/19/2005 2:01:06 PM PDT by Wiz
WASHINGTON - Americans who are telling pollsters they want U.S. troops out of Iraq could see some nasty consequences if President Bush heeded their wishes, foreign policy experts warn.
At worst, the results could include: _A civil war in Iraq resulting in far greater bloodshed than the current conflict, though presumably without further U.S. losses. _The transformation of western Iraq, which is dominated by Sunni Muslims, into a haven for international terrorists from al-Qaida and other groups. _A collapse of U.S. credibility among nations of the Middle East, whose leaders would probably distance themselves from Washington. _A collapse of the Bush administration's push for democracy in the region. _Instability in the Persian Gulf that could lead to steep increases in oil prices, driving the cost of gasoline beyond current record levels.
"All those things might not come to pass, but I think you would enter into a very turbulent period of instability, and the likelihood of all those events happening would go up significantly," said Sen. Jack Reed, D-R.I., a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee.
The Bush administration's strategy is for U.S. troops to train enough Iraqi military and security forces to protect the country's new democratic system, then gradually leave. But that can't be done overnight, said Anthony Cordesman, a military analyst with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, who follows Iraq closely.
While the number of trained Iraqi troops and police has reached 169,000, about 30,000 more than the number of U.S. troops in Iraq, the Iraqis aren't nearly experienced enough to take over the fight, he said. "This effort is going to take well into 2007 at the earliest before they can be cut to more limited levels," Cordesman said of U.S. troops.
(Excerpt) Read more at almendhar.com ...
When is the last time the administration told the public what could happen if we fail in Iraq? That has been one of the big problems with how they have been handeling the PR side of things IMHO. The American public need to know that they will get hit again if we leave Iraq, but as of right now most think we are just there right now to bring democracy to them.
Give the American people some credit. As the president once said, you are hearing the news thru the filtered lens of the media and yet you know the truth. I believe so do they and that goes for the libs as well.
The Withdrawal Method never seems to work.
LOL!
Some Congressmen are calling for a timetable to pull out from Iraq. I believe it is a wrong message in a wrong time to be sent to the insurgents. Logically, the insurgents have no chance to win the struggle with the MNF on the ground, but they could if they sought humbug. For that they are working hard to obtain support from anyone. The insurgents are trying to gain aid from the Arab League, Islamic states, EU, UN, neighboring countries, media, clerics, organizations, individuals…etc. President Bush once said that if his homeland was invaded, he would resist the invaders fiercely. The insurgents & their mouthpieces are tenaciously clinging to what Mr. Bush said to justify their crimes. The insurgency consists of several factions. The baathists & saddamians embody themselves in these factions. The baathists & saddamians are the most powerful group among them. Pulling out from Iraq will cause these groups to appear on the ground & regain power. The baathists are good in deception, so they are expected to turn against their allies, of the present time, and wipe them out.
The first consequence of such wrong message is telling the insurgents that they are doing well by killing American soldiers. You (the insurgents) are hurting us (the Americans). This will encourage the insurgents to put more pressure on the Americans by killing more soldiers. Is it worth killing soldiers to achieve an electoral aim? I don't know what the real intention of declaring such a statement is, but I'm trying to show an Iraqi perspective. Someone, whom I spoke to, viewed it as another let down by the Americans just like the one of 1991 when they pulled out leaving the Iraqis alone to be torn apart by Saddam after the popular uprising of March 1991. Pulling out now may leave the Iraqis alone facing the fundamentalists, insurgents, terrorists, baathists, saddamians…etc.
I agree completely with President Bush in his persistence to fulfill the mission when he insisted in his State of the Union Address on February 2, 2005 when he said:
"We will not set an artificial timetable for leaving Iraq, because that would embolden the terrorists and make them believe they can wait us out…"
and
"… all Iraqis can be certain: While our military strategy is adapting to circumstances, our commitment remains firm and unchanging. We are standing for the freedom of our Iraqi friends…"
He confirmed it again in his Radio Address of this week It seems that Iraqis should trust President Bush since he speaks honestly about what should be done in Iraq. May God bless him. I hope that the American citizens won't stop backing President Bush in his policy in Iraq.
(Posted 6/19/05 by Ibn_Alrafidain in Iraq)
As long as the USA refuses to admit that it's enemy is Islam, it can not win. The USA would rather have every USA soldier killed than to be thought of as "politically incorrect". Sorry, but we just can not win without naming our enemy and fighting it, both inside of the country and outside of it, for Islam has vowed to destroy us, and the fools that we are, they are on their way.
You can criticize the media for not presenting an accurate picture of the situation in Iraq. You are not allowed to criticize Bush for failing to anticipate it. After all, how was he to know the media was liberal? /sarc
I agree with you, though. This is one aspect of the war the administration has dropped the ball on.
I agree with both of you... although I guess it must be harder than we think, otherwise they'd fight back more. Afterall, this administration actually has two wars and a country to run. Unlike the Democratic whine/scream machine.
But I do wish Bush was better at explaining himself and the situation at hand.
***Unlike Vietnam, this time, the enemy will follow our soldiers home. You can take that to the bank.***
Absolutely right! The liberals did the same thing when we were in Vietnam. Hanoi Jane, John F'n Kerry and the other socialists demanded that we leave and the commies were free to commit still more murders. We failed the Vietnamese people. If we do what the libs want now, we'll be failing the Iraqis and we'll be fighting the terrorists right here.
I don't mean the above message to you, FlingWing. I'm always concerned about the newcomers and the students who come here for information which they won't get from the MSM.
Good post, I suspect there are many in Iraq who agree with the poster.
My question, are the ones who are asking for a timetable for a pull-out, on both sides of the aisle, mind you, fully aware of the consequences if a pull-out is done too soon? Didn't the administration already state that we would be there for possibly 2 to 3 more years in some form?
"" Americans who are telling pollsters they want U.S. troops out of Iraq could see some nasty consequences if President Bush heeded their wishes, foreign policy experts warn."
Starting with:
1. Taliban type govt in Iraq
2. Loss of US credibility on WOT ( who will ever stick their necks of out the USA ever again?)
3. Same tactics used against US in Afghanistan to force US withdrawl there.
4. Gen Musaraff assassinated, Taliban govt in Paki with Nukes (war with India)
5. Other gulf countries threatened by Iraqi Taliban like govt
6. Iran hegemony in gulf
7. resumption if homocide bombs against Israelis
8. Somalia withdrawl inspired Bin Laden to commit 9-11, what would Iraq withdrawl (read DEFEAT) inspire?
9. Al Qaeda relocated to Iraq. Afterall it would be the safest place for them
American dont realise that the loss in Vietnam in 1975 inspired the Soviet Union to invade Afghanistan and support communists in Latin America. Also inspired Iran to take hostafes in 1979.
""When is the last time the administration told the public what could happen if we fail in Iraq? That has been one of the big problems with how they have been handeling the PR side of things IMHO.""
youre 100% correct. Bush is one of the worst communicators Ive ever seen.
""As long as the USA refuses to admit that it's enemy is Islam, it can not win.""
thats actually a sure way to lose. Who do you think our allies in Iraq are?
I remember Ronald Reagan use to address the nation about once every 6 months. He spoke in a way that made boring and/or complicator issues understandable to the average american.
Bush did it once with great success in Aug 2001, when he spoke about stem cells from his rance in TX. Polls showed about 60% of the voters agreed with him after the speech.
Problem for Bush is he isnt one to pat himself on the back or engage in self promotion or seek attention
Sadly, I suspect that the ones asking for a timetable, both R and D, are only concerned about political consequences here at home -- only what directly affects them and their positions. Iraqis could be slaughtered? So what? Terrorists stop fighting us in the Middle East and bring their attacks here to the U.S. Just blame President Bush. The media will back them up.
This admin doesn't seem to be into predictions, but they would doubtless get drowned out in the press by every unstable oscillator in the 'Bush lied' category.
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