Posted on 06/26/2005 2:43:46 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
WASHINGTON - Mere miles from the coasts of Florida, Virginia, the Carolinas and a dozen other states, vast quantities of enticing treasure await - uncounted, untapped, and, for now, untouchable. So potentially rich are lodes of oil and gas within the nation's outer continental shelf that their siren call entices petroleum companies, natural gas producers and, lately, politicians seeking a fix for rising prices and peaking supplies.
A movement is intensifying to open these long-forbidden realms, where even geological tests to assess the size of the prize had been banned until a Senate vote Tuesday.
Advocates for ending a federal moratorium on offshore drilling cite rising prices, the nation's ever-escalating appetite for oil and natural gas and dependence on other countries, which supply 58 percent of the oil consumed in the United States.
``Our oceans have emerged as the next great frontier, capable of helping build a stronger, more secure and more economically stable nation,'' Sen. Mary Landrieu, D-La., says, urging Floridians - among the country's biggest energy consumers - to share the burden of producing it.
``With young men and women sacrificing their lives every day in Iraq, it would be unconscionable for us to not look into our own domestic energy supply to reduce our growing dependence on Mideast oil,'' Landrieu says.
Yet arguments for drilling in forbidden zones such as the eastern Gulf of Mexico often sidestep a larger reality: The United States devours oil and gas at such a clip that even the most optimistic estimates of energy abundance beneath protected waters fall far short of quantities needed for a fix.
Instead, tapping the outer continental shelf would merely delay - by five to 10 years for oil and 11 to 19 years for gas - the day global reserves reach their apex and forever start to decline.
``It buys us some more time,'' says Kenneth S. Deffeyes, a retired Princeton University professor and former geologist for oil giant Shell.
``Even with good luck, developing [the outer continental shelf] will only postpone the bigger problem. It helps a little, sure. It doesn't solve anything.''
Ian Ashcroft, vice president of energy consulting for Wood Mackenzie, which advises major oil companies and governments, agrees.
``Even if everything takes off and these areas were opened up fully, it's almost damage limitation, to be honest,'' says Ashcroft, speaking by phone from Edinburgh, Scotland. ``It's not going to be the savior of U.S. dependence on oil imports or gas prices.''
Dan Mica, an advocate for ending the moratorium on exploration and drilling in the eastern Gulf, acknowledges the insufficiency of tapping now-forbidden waters.
``You aren't going to curb our dependence or solve our energy problem with one thing. It's a cumulative effect of doing many things,'' says Mica, executive director of the Tallahassee-based Florida Petroleum Council.
``It's going to take a comprehensive approach beyond'' the exploration of the outer continental shelf, Mica says. ``Alternative technologies. Conservation. Efficiencies.''
Protecting The Shores
The usual arguments against drilling in the eastern Gulf - off-limits to energy companies until a moratorium expires in seven years - emphasize possible harm to tourism, coastal real estate values, beaches and sea life.
To that list, Florida senators Bill Nelson, a Democrat, and Mel Martinez, a Republican, lately have added potential hazards to military pilots who would have to dodge oil and gas rigs during training exercises.
The economic temptations of temporary exploration - alluring in Virginia, where lawmakers this year sought to set aside a ban on Atlantic Ocean drilling - have never had much appeal among Florida leaders. Even Gov. Jeb Bush, whose family enjoys deep connections with energy interests, opposes weakening the moratorium.
Martinez says the state's tourism business is too critical to permit oil and gas development. Other senators are striking similar notes.
``Exploring off our coast,'' Elizabeth Dole, a Republican, says, ``would endanger North Carolina's booming tourism industry, a true economic engine for our state.''
Meanwhile, energy companies are grappling with new dynamics. Fossil fuel supplies have waned after decades of drilling in the western Gulf. Wary of unstable regimes and holding huge sums of capital for exploration, energy companies are drilling deeper in allowed places.
More openly than ever, industry executives are expressing frustration at being barred from tapping easier abundance close to home and closer to the water's surface.
Among them is Nobel Energy Inc. chief executive Charles Davidson. Testifying before a congressional committee April 19, he complained of ``the sad fact'' that ``only some 10 percent of U.S. waters outside of Alaska are available for us.''
Yet during recent debates, none of the central players focused on what the outer continental shelf could never achieve: preventing the United States from running nearer empty.
As global reserves decline and scarcer supplies go to those willing to pay the highest prices, many see an end to the road for America's pedal-to- the-metal oil joyride.
How long does the energy- devouring American society have? Estimates vary. Princeton's Deffeyes, among the gloomier prognosticators, predicts oil production will peak this Thanksgiving. In a paper in February, Robert Hirsch, an energy analyst advising the federal government, tallied 11 predictions. The latest was 2025.
Clock Is Ticking
``No one knows with certainty when world oil production will reach a peak,'' Hirsch writes, ``but geologists have no doubt that it will happen.''
Domestic oil production reached its peak in 1970. In the lower 48 states, natural gas production could peak within 12 years.
A December 2004 Energy Department report provided a dark outlook. ``World oil reserves are being depleted three times as fast as they are being discovered,'' the report says.
``Can we produce all the oil we want domestically? That would be a pretty good trick,'' says John Wood, who tracks energy reserves and production for the Energy Information Administration, an independent agency within the Energy Department.
``Even producing half of what we use would take some tremendous success.''
Eyes To The East
No one knows the amount of buried treasure in the Gulf and the outer continental shelf from the Aleutian Islands to the Atlantic, but oil and gas interests are wide-eyed with yearning. Government estimates suggest why: The outer continental shelf holds two- fifths of the nation's remaining natural gas supply and three- fifths of its oil.
But from a national perspective, the potential treasure appears paltry next to spiraling demand and imports. It also would take years to develop.
Americans consume about 20.5 million barrels of oil each day, or 8.6 billion gallons. Most comes from other countries, with Saudi Arabia, Mexico and Venezuela as the top suppliers.
Although no one can say for certain how much oil or gas shelf areas contain, it's not a complete mystery, either.
Leasing maps tell a tale of two Gulfs.
The western portion is darkened with symbols denoting more than 4,000 oil and gas rigs off the coasts of Louisiana, Texas, Alabama and Mississippi.
To the east, the map is mostly blank. It's a quirk of politics, not geology. The absence of rigs reflects a boundary beyond which, thanks to 15-year-old drilling moratorium ordered by then-President Bush and sustained by President Clinton, no company can explore or drill.
No one doubts the riches to the west are indicative of similar riches to the east.
``People are operating on the close-ology theory. If it's successful nearby, you'll find it 50 miles up the road, and that means you really want to go there,'' says Thomas J. Woods, senior consultant at Boulder, Colo.-based Platts Analytics and Forecasting.
The Senate, with last week's vote allowing seismic surveys, took a step seen as a prelude to drilling.
Firing high-decibel impulses at the ocean floor, geologists can profile seabed rock structures, obtaining hints of oil and gas reserves.
Although exploitation isn't certain to follow, seismic studies are a necessary precursor for exploratory drilling.
Without the benefit of such clues, the Minerals Management Service estimates 76 billion barrels of oil lie beneath the outer continental shelf, 37 billion of which are beneath the Gulf. About 406 trillion cubic feet of natural gas is believed to lie under the outer shelf, 233 trillion of which may be under the Gulf.
At current consumption rates, the untapped and undiscovered resources in the Gulf would supply the nation's oil needs for five years - 10 years if produced from all areas of the outer continental shelf.
That assumes energy companies would exploit all potential resources, which is unlikely.
Gas from the eastern Gulf would have a bigger impact, delaying the year of peak production by 11 years.
Gas industry interests are pushing hard at state and federal levels, noting an anticipated escalation in natural gas usage of nearly 40 percent over the next 15 years - largely because of its popularity in generating electricity. About 80 percent of Florida's electricity is generated at plants powered by natural gas.
With projected demand by 2025 of 30 trillion cubic feet annually, ``the challenge is how to ramp up production to meet that pretty stunning increase,'' says American Gas Association spokeswoman Peggy Laramie. Yet even Laramie acknowledges the insufficiency of off-limits treasures alone.
``There isn't going to be a magic wand,'' she says.
The Coveted Gulf
Energy companies have their eyes on Area 181, 213 miles from Tampa and 25 miles from Pensacola.
But the riches probably start just offshore.
``Right now, if you went up the tallest building in Tampa, you could look far enough to where there are economic and technology recoverable oil and gas resources of such a significant size that it would be economically very good for the area,'' says John Wood of the Energy Information Administration.
Longtime drilling opponent Richard A. Charter, co-chair of the National Outer Continental Shelf Coalition, an environmental group, believes the energy industry is building support in Virginia and North Carolina to garner the real estate it really wants: the Gulf.
``The industry really wants the eastern Gulf near Florida, and they want 181. But they know you can't start attacking the Florida coast in Florida,'' Charter says. ``Industry has made a strategic decision: Pick off the other states. It's the beginning of the zipper.''
Others suggest a straightforward appeal: Energy development can add revenue to cash- strapped state governments, provide jobs and buy time. With time, society can seek new energy sources and solutions, such as improving the efficiency of cars.
Still, Princeton's Deffeyes says, ``Using the continental shelf or not, I worry for the world. I worry for our country. I worry for my grandchildren. Either way, sooner or later, they're going to inherit a very difficult situation.''
Researcher Melanie O'Bannon contributed to this report. Reporter Keith Epstein can be reached at (202) 662-7673.
Oh woe is us. Were doomed, were all going to die. No matter what we do we're going to run out of oil someday, so why try.
What a Whiner!
Drill, drill, drill !
I would support coastal drilling only if a good chunk of the proceeds went towards developing an economical method of mining the Methyl Hydrates.
There is at least 1000 times more MH on the ocean floor than all the oil ever found, drilled, or will be found.
Drill, drill, drill !
I don't get it. "It isn't enough to support us forever, so let's not bother"? That's like, "I won't bend down to pick up that hundred dollar bill because I couldn't live on it for long."
Certain groups are controlling the supply and delivery. It's pretty easy to manipulate the supply and demand of a commodity these days with the power of capital, computers and brute fear and lies.
Just another day in the L'Ordine Nuovo.
P.S. Read Thomas Gold's "Deep Hot Biosphere".
Excellent analogy.
It's pretty easy to manipulate the supply and demand of a commodity these days with the power of capital, computers and brute fear and lies.
Even though the politicians are trying to shift blame for these problems like oil.. its them standing in the way like on the refinery issue. Companies want to refine in America, but the regulators not only are making it more costly they actually are outright stopping them.
There are many sick and twisted tyrants in the corporate world.
If we buy 15-20 years that should be long enough for replacement technologies to come online.
America has gone from a nation of "Can Do" to "Can't Do" thanks to socialism and feminism.
It's there, it's ours and we need it.
Drill.
There are many sick and twisted tyrants in the corporate world, the political world, the environmental world, the media world …
The abuse of true science has been going on since Adam was a boy.
"Tin Lizzie" Dole---just another RINO. The REAL exploration and drilling off the coasts of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama hasn't seemed to hinder "tourism" at all.
If oil can be safely drilled for in the North Sea--a far more "weather unfriendly" environment than any potential US offshore location, then drilling offshore in the US should be easy and quite safe.
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