Posted on 06/26/2005 8:20:21 PM PDT by flixxx
#20
Of course, the presidential primary is the only primary being held that day, so there will be much larger deviations between contested and uncontested primaries. In the case of the NJ and VA state primaries, there were plenty of other races to vote on other than just governor.
BTW, Clinton carried AZ over Dole in 1996.
Could you point out where please? I've read the article 3 times now and I still can't find it.
And I don't know that you could really call the Virginia GOP gov primary contested.
I don't mean to argue semantics but 2 candidates for Gov on the Republican ticket for primary makes it a contested race. One candidate for rat gov is not a contest. It's irrelevant, anyways, because I never wrote anything like that nor meant to imply the VA Republican primary was a big contest. I merely wrote that the additional candidate on the Republican ticket generated interest in the primary. In fact it bolsters my argument, if most voters considered Kilgore the de facto Republican candidate. Fitch got 30,000 votes out of 160,000 Republican votes in a primary where everybody knew Fitch couldn't win.
114,000 Virginians voted in the rat primary
169,000 Virginians voted in the Republican primary
subtract 30,000 from the 169,000 Republican voters and you get 253,000 total voters and Kilgore got 55% of the vote "in a state that Bush carried by a 54-to-45 percent margin." Whoopee!!!
I submit the majority of Fitch voters preferred Fitch for a reason...else they would have voted for the certain winner.
By March 26,1996 Bob Dole had sewn up the GOP nomination but 2 months LATER in May Buchanan got 24% in AK, 22% in ID, 19% in IN, and 16% in WV. In June he got 15% In AL, 24% in MO, and even 11% in NJ. Primaries bring out the true believers. Many of those Fitch voters will stay at home during the general elections or vote rd party. On the flip side lots of rat voters never even bothered to vote during the primaries. Why should they? The Gov race is already decided. If they like the almost certain rat candidate for Gov there is no need to vote, unless they have competition for a state legislator seats which is rare. Baron points out the Lt Gov in VA? Is he joking? The Lt Gov race is a title without power. Baron should be ashamed of himself. He is tricking armatures.
Reply: #23
Look, if you really think Fitch drove 30,000 people to the polls, you're free to believe that, but it's pure conjecture worse than anything Barone did and IMO poppycock. Stick a name, any name, on the ballot and some people will vote for them. And even with your "55% math" Kilgore loses a big chunk of Bush voters to Fitch BUT STILL GETS 55% OF THE OVERALL! Where do you think "Fitch voters" will go in November?
This does not ensure that the Republicans will sweep Virginia in the November 2005 Virginia election, but it is a good sign for them–and was a pleasant surprise to some knowledgeable Republican insiders. More important, the Virginia results and perhaps the New Jersey results suggest that the balance of enthusiasm, which worked for Republicans in 2004, may still be working in their favor
Barone bring up two more points in his conclusion: one, that GOP insiders were pleasantly surprised by the primary turnout -- yes, there IS such a thing as 'better than expected' -- and that aside from any quibbling over contested races etc the raw totals still point to an enthusiasm advantage for the GOP -- a contest may be the reason turnout is up, but the interest it generates is a positive in itself.
A-M-A-T-E-U-R
You should really learn to spell your middle name :)
In VA there is no Presidential election, and no US Senate election. The top of the ticket is the Governor race. If the top of the ticket is unopposed there is often no reason for most people to vote in the primaries. 30,000 people came out to the polls to vote for Fitch
...it is possible some people came to the primary to vote on a US Congress race and couldn't even care about the Gov race...
but it is my observation that those voters vote for the front runner 95% of the time. Most Fitch voters did not vote for Fitch because he was on the ballot.
Stick a name, any name, on the ballot and some people will vote for them.
That is simply not true. Primaries are for the true believer. In a race where there is no President and no US Senator race it is even more clear that people who voted for Fitch voted FOR Fitch and nothing else.
Where do you think "Fitch voters" will go in November?
They will not vote in the general election or they will vote 3rd party just as Buchanan voters voted 3rd party or skiped the vote in 1996.
Thank you for correcting my spelling. After rereading my post I want to apologize for being pompous. It is a bad habit I picked up from another Freeper who I respect immensely and therefor I must accept full blame. As a Republican, I would love to celebrate Barone's take on the VA primaries as gospel, but I've watched too many local elections to not ask questions. I think it is disingenuous of Barone to not explain that the Republican primary for Gov included 2 candidates while the rat was unopposed, and there is no Senate candidate.
Thank you for your response
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