Skip to comments.Chinese Economy Slowing Down(and demand deposit increasing fast)
Posted on 07/12/2005 6:03:04 PM PDT by TigerLikesRooster
/begin my translation
Chinese Economy Slowing Down
/end my translation
How does this square with the report today that Chinese exports grew 32% in the first 6 months.... Isnt that a tremendous growth engine?
"""How does this square with the report today that Chinese exports grew 32% in the first 6 months.... Isnt that a tremendous growth engine?"
actually it does square.
1. domestic demand is slowing, so excess is exported
2. export growth is faster than import growth indication of a slowing economy.
3. Chinese oil import growth is something like in the high single digits this year versus 40% last year.
all the $100 barrel oil bulls are gonna lose big if this story is true.
This article talks about corporate profit, while the article is about export volume. Export volume may increase, while profit goes down. It means that profit margin is dwindling fast. They may even export products below production cost.
That's starting to be a respectable amount of cash sitting around.
Thank you both.
I think China's going to have a Red revival. It's built into their system, to have a people's revolution whenever necessary and re-establish the Maoist state.
Time to let their juan float.
Actually it is a emerging fascist state.
I hope it is true so that all the speculators who spam this forum with disinfo such as "150 per barrel by next summer" (which initially riles all the "Peak Oil" tin foilers and then spreads to normal people...) - de facto market manipulation - get their asses burned.
Indeed, a cooling of the "China Tiger" would allow the CCP to switch gears from "Deng Xiao Ping Thought" to "Chingis Khan Thought!"
And what happens when China's "army of juan" begins to float?
Is the new wealthy class sufficiently powerful to keep order, or more importantly, stealthy enough not to be noticed by the rest of society? Newly rich people like to be seen, afterall.
And have they acquired enough bones to throw at the angry dogs while they consolidate power? That is - is there a willing middle class of patriotic mercenaries (a loyal police force) whom they can buy-off with jobs and status? Such a class is key to keeping order within the emerging fascist state.
I think it depends on whether or not you have a real currency or an manipulated simulation of a currency falsely pegged to other REAL currencies.
That don't play. Not in the long run.
I've been saying for two years that those that fear China as a threat to our real economy are overplaying the situation. It's like in the early 90s when we were doomed because the Japanese were going to own everything. By the time that got any notice it was already two or three years after it wasn't a possibility anymore.
I'm such a sage. Now I only have to figure out why I can't translate my (infallible) wisdom into actual prosperity. ;^>
peak oil, depletion rates, infrastructure issues,refinery issues, quality of crude are a few of the other issues that will keep oil suprisingly high.
Go away now or I'll report you to the SEC and the FTC. Spammer ...
Maybe its those big double joints and that walnut beak. : )
I have read recent report that China has been investing heavily in Military at the same time that the economy is (possibly) starting to fail..
Along with this is the recent attempt to buy UNOCAL, the oil/energy company..
Sounds like the government knows very well what is coming, and are preparing to have a strong military to keep order.
At the same time they are trying to consolidate possession of some oil export/import companies to insure enough oil to keep government/military going..
Yeah, they know what they are up against. Useful idiots have no idea, though.:-)
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