Prediction:
The Democracts will use this as an excuse to fall behind Cardin. Cardin will do well enough among whites and "other races" to win the election, but prominent black community leaders could take offense at Mfume being squeezed out.
Can Steele eat into the black vote? It's up to the black community leaders: do they want a good black governor, or a lousy Democratic one. My guess is most will say they want a Democratic one, but if a significant number like Steele, it could change things.
Senator
All the more reason for Maryland Republicans to change parties for the primary. If Steele isn't going to have any challenge, it would pay to meddle in the democrat race, runup the costs, encourage division, and vote for Frizzel Gray.
you might be right here.
DEMS face a big problem in MD. its catch 22.
IF the party backs Cardin, they risk alienating the black vote, especially over such a well known black man as Mfume. Blacks may not turn out in as large numbers and Cardin loses.
If they back Mfume, they lose to Steele anyway as Steel should get 30% of the Black vote easily.
Thus this poll is greatly overstating Cardins support. See what his support is after a bitter primary battle with Mfume.
Steele should be the favourite.