5 points for Schmidt but that she had lost some of her lead.
The gop 2 to 1 advantage in this district doesn't mean this seat is safe.
It is a special election in the middle of the summer.
No incumbent
Race isn't a presidential election where party line vote would be more predictable. Perfect example is Bush won the congressional seat which includes Crawford by 64 percent the same as he won this ohio district by but in the Crawford district Chet Edwards a liberal dem won by 3 percent.
Dem candidate has gotten much more press coverage.
Correction Bush won the crawford texas congressional district with 64 percent, meaning he won the congressional district by 30 percent 64-34 about. He also won the ohio congressional district getting 64 percent winning by 30 points over Kerry.
Ohio rural counties tend to vote differently for congressional races too.
Last year Bush won Allen county 2 to 1 and a dem challenger won that county.
Trouble spots for this district are the eastern poor portions like portsmouth and the western portion of the district which includes some eastern cincinnati wards.
Schmidt will need a big margin in Clermont county her home base to put her over the top.