Maybe I'm missing something here...but it occurs to me that we can now build runways and bases in Afghanistan itself(???)
Uzbek President Islam Karimov demanded from the USA to remove its military base from Khanabad. By doing so, Karimov not only lost hundreds of millions of dollars that Americans were paying for the base usage, but he killed his last chance to stay in power.
In the end of 2001 Karimov made a right move and gave a permission to set up the US military base on Uzbek territory. This move guaranteed Uzbek president his unlimited stay at the power. In exchange for his loyalty to Washington, Karimov was not only getting American financial help and support, but he also could rely on Washington’s promise not to shake up his regime.
This scheme, which suspiciously looked like a deal, worked fine until recently. The troubles appeared in last several months. The alarm signals started to come to Karimov one after another. First, Americans did not make a move to help Askar Akakev to hold the power in Kyrgyzia. Akaev, by the way, also gave US permission for a military base. After the massacre in Andijan Washington put the full blame on Uzbek authorities. And that, of course, meant Islam Karimov before of all. The warning of the analysts about a new US goal to replace Central Asian regimes started to come true. Akaev was able to transfer himself quietly in category of political retirees. Karimiov would not be able to do the same after Andijan.
Uzbek President made his choice. He challenged US and practically gave his political fate (and not only political one) into the Moscow’s hands.
The US will balance the Khadabad loss with increased presence in Kyrgyzia and Tajikistan. The agreement with both heads of states was already made. However, Karimov risks of loosing a lot if not everything.
One doesn’t have to be Central Asian expert to predict: the US will put all its efforts to replace current Uzbek president and to bring him to the court. Thus, Karimov’s fate looks pretty gloomy.
And even Moscow will not able to help him. The Kremlin, of course will try to block all possible sanctions against Karimov’s regime. However, it is doubtful that Moscow would be able to stop from coming a velvet revolution and replacement of today’s government.
In decisive moment, when Kremlin will be facing choice –either confrontation with the US or Karimov’s defense at any cost- it looks like that Uzbek president will end up on the losing side.
Funny - a lot of the media scoffed when Bush said that we would no more support tyrants out of expediency. Looks like he meant it. What a surprise.