I think you're right!
The local Orlando weatherman Tom Terry said the storm will most likely follow the GFDL model coming in at about 70 mph and coming across southern Florida into Ft. Myers at 60 mph. The National Weather Svc. model (GFS) has it going up the east coast and into the Carolinas. (They anticipate a storm up in that area dipping down and causing the storm to come that way.) Tom Terry said he feels the storm will be too weak for that to occur.