Replies

We adjusted. Energy is (obviously) becoming more expensive now. We'll adjust. Thermal depolymerization, tar sands, improved drilling and extraction, etc. all await.

And liberals and eco-wackos and all their kept politicians (which the current administration refuses to confront) standing in the way the whole 9-yards. Look at Jeb Bush and the California wackos opposing even SLANT DRILLING...which leaves no visible coastline footprint or oil leakage whatsoever. And while I'm on that, where the HELL is all that 1 trillion barrels of U.S. SHALE OIL we were told could be economically processed at the market price of $35/barrell??? Seems to me that someone has that locked up tighter than, a'hem...a drum. Wildcatters inventing new processes for extraction are claiming even better prices than the $35/barrel cost...how about $10? I.e,.:

"A Utah-based, privately held corporation called Oil Tech, Inc., says it has developed and installed an improved surface retorting process that can produce shale oil for less than $10 a barrel. Located in eastern Utah, the company says that Unified Engineering witnessed a demonstration of the new technology..."

If the goal is not to more or less secretly "drain the swamp of terrorists, by DRAINING THEIR OIL SUPPLY FIRST" then the Western World is just proceeding on an adhoc basis with no clear production agenda, and just letting the tail wag the dog. Heck, not even the tail. THE FLEAS are running the show with the environmentalist-wackos saying what we will be alllowed to do.

To put the shale-oil trillion barrel reserve of the U.S. into perspective....note that Saudia Arabian oil fields have "proven" reserves officially pegged at 261.9 billion barrels, but this can't be independently verified...and is a state-secret. Then taking all the other oil fields in current production or on tap...the following excerpt from the San Francisco Chronicle notes the global number at 1.3 trillion:

"Oil-producing companies and countries publish estimates of their proven reserves -- essentially, the amount of oil they can pump with existing technology under current market conditions. It all adds up to about 1.3 trillion barrels worldwide, enough to keep humanity's cars, factories and power plants humming for 42 years at our present level of consumption."

One trillion barrels of U.S. shale oil could keep the U.S. humming along at our current per capita oil consumption for over 400 years. And we are only a little over 200 years old as a country. And by then, indeed, we will have found something else.

If only we could bring back Reagan and James Watts.

Proposing shale development for fuel is not much help. In fact, with the pressure building daily on high oil prices it is in some ways delusional. Of course, if we begin today, we might be able to develop shale for fuel in only ten years! We do not even have the refineries to supply gasoline to the U.S. In the western states, we are importing gasoline from Mexico! How stupid is that, I ask you? Standard Oil-Chevron-Texaco-BP-Unocal has a virtual monopoly on fuel production in the U.S. That gigantic conglomerate decides not to upgrade refineries and/or to build new refineries; the result is that America suffers? Oil is a vital strategic resource. What do we get? Profiteering, speculation, pure greed and higher prices!

Time to smell the coffee. wtc911 is correct. Peak oil is already here. Not because of a shortage of oil field production. But because of global politics and the factors I outlined in post # 58.

-----------------------------------------------

Problems with this....

1)technology has not yet found a way to extract more than roughly half of the oil in any field so reduce your expectation to 21 years.

2)Our level of consumption is accelerating at a rate exponentially faster than the annual increase in production, which will further reduce your specutated time-frame.