I think you're right about Shep being way too optimistic.
NOAA's IR loop still shows the eye, a little wobbly maybe, but still there, and it only now just made landfall east of Grand Isle.
The eye wall has disintegrated to the southwest and yes, NO has dodged this bullet. Texas sent her some of our high dry air, which we have plenty of in August. There will be flooding, but Geraldo can get down out of the Ark. I'm afraid this will go down as ANOTHER example of media over-kill, which someday will lead to disaster.