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Most scientific papers are probably wrong
New Scientist ^
| 8/30/05
| Kurt Kleiner
Posted on 08/30/2005 10:29:44 AM PDT by LibWhacker
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To: narby
"What's the articles point?
Who knows, maybe everything we believe is wrong.
To: Physicist
Although this article may, on the surface, give comfort to the anti-science crowd, it's fair to ask -- assuming it's actually true that "most scientific papers are probably wrong" -- who is it that actually discovers this, and what methods are employed to do so.
I suggest that there has never been an instance of a acientific error that was verifiably demonstrated by someone who was outside of the scientific enterprise, using un-scientific methods. [Escape hatch -- I exclude, on grounds of triviality, those occasional cases where a layman finds a fossil or something, and the scientists verify it and perhaps revise their estimates of how widely such a creature may have roamed.]
82
posted on
08/30/2005 12:26:23 PM PDT
by
PatrickHenry
(Felix, qui potuit rerum cognoscere causas. The List-O-Links is at my homepage.)
To: LibWhacker
How do we know this article isn't one of the over 50% that is wrong?
To: Physicist; RadioAstronomer
Weird. In the football game last night, one of the players had to leave with a neck injury. So they took him from Ford Field in Detroit to Henry Ford hospital. And the ambulance? It was a Ford. Say it isn't so! An injured guy goes from Ford Field to Ford Hospital in a vehicle whose manufacturer's name is acryonum for "Fix or Repair Daily"? Why, the odds of that must be astronomical! This is clear proof that an advanced but imperceiveable "intelligence" with an inclination toward irony is overseeing the dispatch of rescue vehicles! We must immediately get out our crystal balls and ouija boards to investigate this mystical phenomona!
To: ModelBreaker
Don't worry about it, because I found your post interesting all the same. (I'm back to serious mode, btw) It's actually pretty surprising that basic statistical procedures that are taught practically at freshman college level are given such short shrift.
I recently read someone say something to the effect (I can't remember the exact quote) that virtually all science is just guesswork, until it's put to use, and then it becomes engineering. That seems going almost too far, but I'm wondering if that really isn't a healthy attitude.
85
posted on
08/30/2005 12:30:14 PM PDT
by
inquest
(FTAA delenda est)
To: LibWhacker
Most scientific papers are probably wrong
If that is the case and then subsequent scientific papers relied on faulty papers which were half wrong, wouldn't the subsequent papers be much more wrong? If the original was faulty up to 50% and the subsequent paper which borrowed from the original also contained 50% errors on its own, independent from the first, wouldn't the lattter paper be only 25% correct?
If evolutin was half wrong at its inception with Darwin and then the next evolutionist borrowed from Darwin and that latter evolutionist used Darwin's mistakes and then drew conclusions based on faulty data from Darwin, the latter evolutionis'ts conclusions would just be loaded with errors and faulty conclusions and the resulting research papers would just be garbage.
Same thing with global warming.
(Did any of that make sense?)
86
posted on
08/30/2005 12:31:29 PM PDT
by
adorno
To: RadioAstronomer
87
posted on
08/30/2005 12:32:26 PM PDT
by
FOG724
(RINOS - they are not better than leftists, they ARE leftists.)
To: LibWhacker
If some really sharp and neutral Doctoral candidate picks
The Lethality of Second Hand Smoke myth as his object study, he will find distortions and fallacies he did not know even existed!
And it would provide invaluable input to public policy.
Say you want to outlaw smoking because you can; stop pretending that there is "science" or "scientific studies" behind the decision, however.
88
posted on
08/30/2005 12:32:53 PM PDT
by
Publius6961
(Liberal level playing field: If the Islamics win we are their slaves..if we win they are our equals.)
To: ModelBreaker
Some years ago, I found an error in a paper I had previously written with another author--we were measuring (and reported) a bug in our software, not a real phenomenon. He was the head of a prominent dept in a prominent university. He argued 'til he was blue in the face that we should not report that we had been mistaken.Donald Johanson, is that you?
89
posted on
08/30/2005 12:38:47 PM PDT
by
Publius6961
(Liberal level playing field: If the Islamics win we are their slaves..if we win they are our equals.)
To: SolidRedState
80% of all statistics are made up on the spot. LOL!
(You should check out an old movie called "Apartment for Peggy" - the heroine makes constant use of fabricated statistics.)
90
posted on
08/30/2005 12:39:50 PM PDT
by
talleyman
(Treason is as treason does.)
To: Physicist
I'm just being a little picky & irritable. Sorry. Part of the problem is we're not all speaking the same language or using the same standards. 3-sigma = 1 chance in 400. How many ways can we creat to say 1 chance in 400.
There is a plethora of contradictory scientific test results on the "market" today. Reminds me of lawyers being able to read anything they want into or out of something. Getting close to babble.
To: Publius6961
Donald Johanson, is that you?Nope.
To: My2Cents
if evolution were itself shown to be a pseudo-science, their diplomas, and indeed their careers, would be considered worthless. The scientist that comes up with a theory to displace evolution will win the Nobel prize and be internationally famous.
If the infamous Discovery Institute were a real scientific endevor, they'd be actually doing science. Rather than pushing lawsuits and press releases.
93
posted on
08/30/2005 12:43:14 PM PDT
by
narby
(There are Bloggers, and then there are Freepers.)
To: talleyman
(You should check out an old movie called "Apartment for Peggy" - the heroine makes constant use of fabricated statistics.) I'll see if I can find it. Thanks. LOL
94
posted on
08/30/2005 12:43:43 PM PDT
by
SolidRedState
(E Pluribus Funk --- (Latin taglines are sooooo cool! Don't ya think?))
To: mountainlyons
All tests to bring life from scum have failed. But there's a lot of living scum out there...
95
posted on
08/30/2005 12:43:59 PM PDT
by
talleyman
(Treason is as treason does.)
To: ModelBreaker
On top of that, I'm only just now getting your joke. That was pretty good!
96
posted on
08/30/2005 12:44:21 PM PDT
by
inquest
(FTAA delenda est)
To: inquest
Don't worry about it, because I found your post interesting all the same. (I'm back to serious mode, btw) It's actually pretty surprising that basic statistical procedures that are taught practically at freshman college level are given such short shrift.In some ways the problem is that folks going into tech fields take the mandatory stat class. Then, when they have results to report, they pull out one of the very powerful stat software packages that are available and just plug in their numbers. They never really got a gut sense of what statistics is about. They see it as a legitimizing tool for their real work. So statistics are frequently misused, unintentionally.
To: Duke Nukum
Everyone in history was a complete idiot until those 19th century scientists saved us from the Dark Ages!!! We can never go against them!!!!! The Renaissance and modern science were begun by scholars studying the ancient Greek and Roman texts saved from Byzantium, and re-opened to scholars only a few centuries ago. If ancient texts are relevant, and hold information that can be confirmed, no real scientist could ignore them.
98
posted on
08/30/2005 12:49:17 PM PDT
by
narby
(There are Bloggers, and then there are Freepers.)
To: Physicist
I'm reading books on the development of nuclear weapons right now. Evolution doesn't seem relevant to the subject at all.
But then, I think Oklahoma is the cultural center of the universe :-).
99
posted on
08/30/2005 12:54:23 PM PDT
by
Tax-chick
(Oklahoma is the cultural center of the universe ... take me back to Tulsa!)
To: ModelBreaker
Then, when they have results to report, they pull out one of the very powerful stat software packages that are available and just plug in their numbers.So you'd classify this as a relatively recent problem?
100
posted on
08/30/2005 12:55:40 PM PDT
by
inquest
(FTAA delenda est)
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