Gone with the Water (2004 National Geographic "Prediction" Flashback)

National Geographic ^ | October 2004 | Joel K. Bourne, Jr.

[Steven W.]

The Louisiana bayou, hardest working marsh in America, is in big trouble—with dire consequences for residents, the nearby city of New Orleans, and seafood lovers everywhere.

It was a broiling August afternoon in New Orleans, Louisiana, the Big Easy, the City That Care Forgot. Those who ventured outside moved as if they were swimming in tupelo honey. Those inside paid silent homage to the man who invented air-conditioning as they watched TV "storm teams" warn of a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. Nothing surprising there: Hurricanes in August are as much a part of life in this town as hangovers on Ash Wednesday.

But the next day the storm gathered steam and drew a bead on the city. As the whirling maelstrom approached the coast, more than a million people evacuated to higher ground. Some 200,000 remained, however—the car-less, the homeless, the aged and infirm, and those die-hard New Orleanians who look for any excuse to throw a party.

The storm hit Breton Sound with the fury of a nuclear warhead, pushing a deadly storm surge into Lake Pontchartrain. The water crept to the top of the massive berm that holds back the lake and then spilled over. Nearly 80 percent of New Orleans lies below sea level—more than eight feet below in places—so the water poured in. A liquid brown wall washed over the brick ranch homes of Gentilly, over the clapboard houses of the Ninth Ward, over the white-columned porches of the Garden District, until it raced through the bars and strip joints on Bourbon Street like the pale rider of the Apocalypse. As it reached 25 feet (eight meters) over parts of the city, people climbed onto roofs to escape it.

Thousands drowned in the murky brew that was soon contaminated by sewage and industrial waste. Thousands more who survived the flood later perished from dehydration and disease as they waited to be rescued. It took two months to pump the city dry, and by then the Big Easy was buried under a blanket of putrid sediment, a million people were homeless, and 50,000 were dead. It was the worst natural disaster in the history of the United States.

When did this calamity happen? It hasn't—yet. But the doomsday scenario is not far-fetched. The Federal Emergency Management Agency lists a hurricane strike on New Orleans as one of the most dire threats to the nation, up there with a large earthquake in California or a terrorist attack on New York City. Even the Red Cross no longer opens hurricane shelters in the city, claiming the risk to its workers is too great.

"The killer for Louisiana is a Category Three storm at 72 hours before landfall that becomes a Category Four at 48 hours and a Category Five at 24 hours—coming from the worst direction," says Joe Suhayda, a retired coastal engineer at Louisiana State University who has spent 30 years studying the coast. Suhayda is sitting in a lakefront restaurant on an actual August afternoon sipping lemonade and talking about the chinks in the city's hurricane armor. "I don't think people realize how precarious we are," Suhayda says, watching sailboats glide by. "Our technology is great when it works. But when it fails, it's going to make things much worse."

[EXCERPT]

[Steven W.]

Something else for critics to mull over

[newgeezer]

Wow. Early and accurate predictions abound, and this is perhaps the eeriest one yet. No one can say this was a real surprise. It's never been a question of "if" but only "when."

Some 200,000 remained, however—the car-less, the homeless, the aged and infirm, and those die-hard New Orleanians who look for any excuse to throw a party.

At first, I thought he neglected to mention a couple groups. But, on second thought, those who stuck around to protect their stuff and those with plans to burgle others' stuff could conceivably be lumped into that last category.

[lexington minuteman 1775]

Some prediction. Only time will tell on the number of deaths but some senator believes there may be 10,000 in NO. And that does not count Mississippi, and Alabama.

[rellimpank]

--was in Slidell for three days almost exactly two years ago. On the bus tour of NO we took, the guide explained as we went along exactly where the levees were, what was below sea level and generally what would happen if a big hurricane hit.

Obviously, the attitude of the average resident was about the same as that of the typical SF Bay Area or Los Angeles resident to the potential 8-Richter Scale earthquake--

[commish]

eerie. Change the date to today and i could be mistaken for a news story.

[thegreatbeast]

bttt

[newgeezer]

Don't miss this one.

[caver]

"Obviously, the attitude of the average resident was about the same as that of the typical SF Bay Area or Los Angeles resident to the potential 8-Richter Scale earthquake--"

The average citizen always think it won't happen to them. Some times they are wrong. I wouldn't have taken the chance given the warnings.

[estrogen]

bump

[caver]

The author of this article has a crystal ball. The death count doesn't sound so high but the destruction is well up there.