Posted on 09/03/2005 6:29:38 PM PDT by Pikamax
Agency felt New Orleans was safe for 200-300 years 02 Sep 2005 21:45:13 GMT
Source: Reuters
By Will Dunham
WASHINGTON, Sept 2 (Reuters) - The Army Corps of Engineers believed the New Orleans levee system would protect the city for 200 or 300 years, but it was not designed to guard against a storm as powerful as Hurricane Katrina that thoroughly overwhelmed it, the head of the agency said on Friday.
Lt. Gen. Carl Strock, commander of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, also said Bush administration funding cuts for the system of levees, floodgates and pumping stations that failed to protect the city had not contributed to the disaster.
"At the time that these levees were designed and constructed, it was felt that that was an adequate level given the probability of an event like this occurring," said Strock, whose agency handles the infrastructure of U.S. waterways.
Situated below sea level, New Orleans relied on a 300-mile (480 km) network of levees, floodgates and pumps to hold back the waters of the Mississippi River and Lake Pontchartrain.
The levees were designed to protect against hurricanes only in the lowest three of five categories of intensity, Strock said. Katrina was Category Four when it hit the U.S. Gulf Coast on Monday.
"We figured we had a 200- or 300-year level of protection. That means that an event that we were protecting from might be exceeded every 200 or 300 years," Strock told reporters. "So we had an assurance that 99.5 percent, this would be OK. We, unfortunately, have had that 0.5 percent activity here."
"The intensity of this storm simply exceeded the design capacity of this levee."
Strock said money was a factor in why the levees were not designed to protect against the strongest hurricanes.
"It's a combination of doing the engineering, looking at the likelihood of a given storm event, looking at the amount of effort that will be needed to protect the city in an ironclad way, and then making a decision which is based on engineering judgment and the economics of whether it's worth the cost to the benefit and then striking the right level of protection."
FUNDING CUTS
Agency documents showed administration funding cuts forced engineers to delay improvements on the levees, floodgates and pumping stations. Levees were fortified after floods in 1927 and 1965. Congress approved another upgrade after a 1995 flood.
Since 2001, the agency had requested $496 million for that project but the administration budgeted only $166 million. Congress approved $250 million. Strock said he did not believe funding levels contributed to the disaster.
Strock suggested New Orleans residents took their chances living in a city so vulnerable to a strong hurricane.
"Let me be very careful not to appear callous or draw simple analogies, but (take) San Francisco. Why do people live in San Francisco? There will be an earthquake in San Francisco," Strock said. "There will be an earthquake in Los Angeles. There will be an earthquake in Seattle, a devastating earthquake. Why do people live there?" Well, it's because that's where they live."
"The city of New Orleans just is what it is. What we do is try to put the appropriate level of protection in."
Strock said water levels had stabilized and the task at hand was to drain New Orleans, which will take an unspecified number of weeks.
In Baton Rouge, Louisiana, Brig. Gen. Robert Crear of the Army Corps of Engineers said draining New Orleans could take between 36 and 80 days.
Two or three hundred years, or one week... whichever comes first...
BTTT
LOL
Too busy pumping out Love Potient # 9.
"The Army Corps of Engineers believed the New Orleans levee system would protect the city for 200 or 300 years"
New Orleans: 1718 - 2005 = 287 years
Sounds like they were right. If only they realized how little time was left on the clock.
I heard that a witness who lives nearby said that he saw a barge hit the levee?
Did anyone hear or see that?
Good question.
VEDY INTEDESTING !!So it wasn't protected from barge damage eh?
The city has been around for almost 300 years. The 300 year flood would have to come eventually.
bump
Good post. Thanks
If the people of New Orleans had wanted additional levels of protection they could have built to Cat4 or Cat 5 levels instead of, say, building the Superdome or casinos (partially tax subsidized) or funding major league sports teams, or ...
True. I would also caution against folks thinking this could never happen again, at least for a long time. One never knows.
This is along the lines of the government officials who expected such an event to occur only once every 100 years saying they assumed they didn't have to worry about anything like this happeing for 100 years. It should be required that everybody understand basic statistics before they graduate high school. First, the event can occur anywhere within 100 years--beginning, middle or end. Secondly, statistics are built around the law of large numbers. If something occurs 1 out of every 100 years, it can occur 10 times in close proximity and then not occur for 1000 years.
No wonder so many throw away perfectly good money on the lottery!
On one of the Cavuto FNS segments this am, Jimmie Roberts said that the NO levee commission spent money on a private jet and a casino.
I guess the odds are always against being hit by a Cat 4. But if a city is located in an area where they regularly occur, as NO is, then the assumption has to be that that there can be a hit any year. When it's known that a Cat 4 hit will be this catastrophic, it seems almost criminal when authorities just don't prepare.
"instead of, say, building the Superdome"
Very good point. That very poor storm shelter cost the residents of Louisiana 1 billion 1970 dollars
My home town had three 100-year floods in 10 years.
Yeah, I'm really ticked off that people in Conneticut didn't pay more money to fix NOLA's problems.
(Denny Crane: "Sometimes you can only look for answers from God and failing that... and Fox News".)
Or you could maybe not build a city 10 feet below sea level on a Mississippi mudpie and eliminate the cost altogether.
Now that this has hit and destoyed so much the next hurricane will have free reign even if it's a cat 1. Doesn't sound like there's much to keep it out now.
Googled.... via new article Dec 2003:
About $14.6 billion
up from initial forecast of about $4 billion in [2003] dollars
It was in some of the first satellite photos.
Good point and one I've argued all morning with some libs ... but they do not understand engineering or risk/cost analysis. They think the world should be 100% safe all the time and if not somebody's gonna pay.
Wow, do you have a source for that? That could be big news.
Wonder if one of those fires was the levee commission burning their financial records.
I just heard the barge theory. I believe it because I was there Tuesday after the storm and saw that barge three blocks from where the levee broke. It had to go through the hole and probably created it
Please describe where the barge is in the aerial and satellite photos:
http://www.digitalglobe.com/images/katrina/new_orleans_msi_aug31_2005_dg.jpg
If you are going to make accusations like this, please support your charges with specific details that can be verified.
And, it should be noted, we have now entered a new 300 year period. Nothing says the next one can't come early in this 300 years.
I agree.
bttt
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