Preliminary data from the survey are now available. Overall, 68.8% of respondents would leave the area, 9.8% would leave their homes but remain in the area, and 21.4% would remain in their homes. That 21.4% of respondents would remain in their homes is a startling and important statistic. This , because it indicates that nearly 1 in 4 New Orleans residents would refuse to leave their homes as a possibly deadly major hurricane approaches the City.
[SNIP]
Air evacuations by helicopter will ensure the evacuation of thousands a day, but at the same time there will have to be mechanisms set up to get food, water and medicines to those trapped. An “Operation Dunkirk” effort will have to be launched from the north shore of Lake Pontchartrain, utilizing sport fishing and recreational boats to collect stranded New Orleans residents from the levees on the north side. On the south side, barges and commercial vessels will do their own river evacuations to centers such as Baton Rouge. Within the flooded city, where water levels in many areas will reach the eaves of houses, another small craft operation will have to be set up moving people and supplies to and from their places of refuge to the levees (high ground) and vice versa. This “Operation Dunkirk” evacuation and supply operation, using mostly volunteers, is going to require significant planning. Each crew will need emergency supplies and radio/cellular phone communications, a stock of medicines, and medical experts with whom to communicate. Insurance issues and waivers will have to be negotiated.
We described many of our results in our last report. Particularly interesting was the finding that individuals who had lived in the area longer and those who had experienced a major storm are actually less likely to leave than those with shorter tenure in the area and residents who had not “ridden through” a major storm. As we have explored those findings, anecdotal evidence suggests that a “culture” of sorts may exist in New Orleans which encourages residents not to evacuate, even in the face of a major storm.
We have extended these preliminary analyses in two ways. First, we are now exploring the health correlates of evacuation. We find that individuals who are in “good,” “excellent,” and even “fair” health are much more likely to report that they would evacuate than those who are in “poor” health: 73 % of those in “excellent” health, 70% of those in “good” health, 68% of those in “fair” health, but only 43% of those in “poor” health report that they would leave the area. We find similar patterns for mental health and disability. Of those with low levels of depression, 72% would evacuate, whereas 65% of those at middle levels and 56% of those at high levels would do so. Only 53% of those with a disability, compared to 71% of those without would leave the area. Psychological resources also appear to be consequential, with individuals with better coping skills more likely to say that they would leave the area than those with lower levels of mastery. Individuals reporting higher levels of social support are more likely to say that they would evacuate than those with lower levels of support.
9.8% would leave their homes but remain in the area, and 21.4% would remain in their homes. That 21.4% of respondents would remain in their homes is a startling and important statistic.
That 9.8% mentioned in the study, as remaining someplace else in the area, is also important.
People who evacuated to "stronger" homes of friends and family in New Orleans, thought they were safer, but still were at great risk.
Here's another study that Nagin should have been aware of...which also discussed the reluctance of people to evacuate, and/or to evacuate at a safe enough distance.
Citizen Hurricane Evacuation Behavior in Southeastern Louisiana: A Twelve Parish Survey Released by The Southeast Louisiana Hurricane Taskforce, July 2005.
The study concluded (page 6) that
The number of low income residents who remain in harm’s way illustrates the need for both education about the need to1. I don't think Nagin emphatically told his poorer constituents that they needed to evacuate at a distance, to high land, rather than take shelter in a friend's "stronger" home.
[1] travel far enough
and
[2] providing evacuation assistance to those without means