The Lord of the Pipes

Kommersant ^ | Sep. 11, 2005 | Mikhail Zygar

[Lukasz]

Turkmenistan has pulled out of the CIS at the summit in Kazan timed to the city’s millennium. Unlike his neighbors, Saparmurat Niyazov was not afraid to break off relations with Moscow. And yet, the most notorious dictator of the former USSR does not risk isolation, a military invasion or another Color Revolution.

Leaders of CIS countries-members were rarely so disciplined in arrive at the organization’s summits as they did in Kazan. Even “color” presidents of Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova were there. Vladimir Voronin interrupted his vacation in Karlovy Vary to come the meeting, while Mikhail Saakashvili took his pregnant wife Roelofs with him. The only vacant seat was that of Turkmen president. Saparmurat Niyazov not only neglected the summit but he cuffed the ears of his CIS counterparts by sending his bodyguard, Aganiyaz Akyev, who was appointed the country’s deputy prime minister a month before, as his representative. Akyev read out to the CIS leaders Turkembashi’s address announcing that Turmenistan would no longer be a permanent member of the CIS and bid to grant it association membership of the commonwealth.

This demarche will have little effect on the CIS as things are as bad as ever even without it. Turkmenistan, by the way, has never been a CIS member. Niyazov and his Ukrainian, Georgian and Moldovan counterparts refused to sign the charter of the commonwealth back in 1993. Later on, Turkmen president was not concerned about affairs of the CIS and was rarely present at its summits. Therefore, the withdrawal from the CIS is merely a symbolic step. It is not clear, though, what prompted Turkmenbashi to take the decision: whether it is just another fancy of “the father of all Turkmens” or a well-considered action to humiliate the partners, Russia, first of all.

Some may suggest that Turkmenistan’s withdrawal from the CIS is a blessing. Russian authorities will be free from friendship ties with the dictator regime, and geopolitical interests will be no longer hinder them to be at least forthcoming about what is going on in Turkmenistan if not fight against it. But Turkmenbashi won’t feel it. He has proved during 15 years of his absolute power that he is invincible in any situation. Ways of the punishments of dictators, known in this world, do not pose any threat to Saparmurat Niyazov.

Revolution

Opposition in Turkmenistan is prohibited by the law. Like in the neighboring countries, opponents of the current regime were swept away in early 90s. All of them were either assassinated, went missing or fled the country. Turkmenbashi have now no real rivals left, so the Turkmen punitive vehicle has launched purges in the ranks of his supporters in the recent years.

One of the most spectacular moves was made in November 2002 when were allegedly was an attempt at Turkmenbashi’s life. Former deputy prime minister Boris Shikhmuradov, who had lived abroad since 2001 and lambasted the regime of Turkmenbashi, was named a mastermind. As Shikhmuradov’s relatives were detained in Ashgabat the politician returned to the country where he was arrested and sentenced to life. A book Me and My Accomplices-Terrorists signed by Shikhmuradov where the politician admitted the attempt at Niyazov was published this February.

A new purge was undertaken in Turkmenistan this year. Remarkably, these were the closest people of Turkmenbashi who became the victims, the people who used to be viewed as his successors. For a start, Elly Kurbanmuradov, once all-powerful deputy prime minister in charge of fuel and energy complex, was arrested. He and his wife were sentenced to 25 and 20 years in prison, respectively, at a closed-door hearing a month ago. All leaders of the country’s fuel and energy industry found themselves in custody: heads of state corporations Turkmenneftegaz, Turkmenneft and Turkmengeologiya. Redzhep Saparov, the second man in the state, deputy prime minister and deputy chairman of the People’s Council, reputed to be the richest man in the country, became the latest victim. First, Turkmenbashi traditionally rebuked his brother-in-arms on the air. “I won’t arrest and jail you because you’ve worked 20 years with me, though now we can arrest you and give you any sentence,” he said. A month later, Saparov was convicted to 20 years in prison.

Turkmenbashi’s personnel policy seems to be perfect at guarding him against color revolutions. Unlike authorities in Kyrgyzstan and Ukraine, he does not have his former colleagues, who can now form the bulk of the resistance movement, be at large. Even events in Uzbekistan can hardly be repeated in Turkmenistan. Independent Central Asian press reported disturbances in Mary. The town was closed for the entrance and exit, troops have been drawn up to the spot. Mary did not become the second Andizhan, though. Officials made no statements, no information on what happened in the town leaked.

Isolation

One thing that surely cannot scare Turkmenistan is isolation. First, it is because Ashgabat’s regime has been successful in achieving the total isolation. The last move was made a few weeks ago when any media and phonograms were banned in the country. From the moment on, music can be performed only live, which means that foreign music will not be performed at all. Opera and ballet were prohibited long ago, libraries were closed. There are no foreign mass media in the republic: they providently seize newspapers at Ashgabat’s airport named after Turkmenbashi. The country has only 300 Internet users. Neither foreign history nor foreign literature is taught at Turkmen schools. The main subject is the study of Niyazov’s book Rukhnama, a moral code of every Turkmen. So, the younger generation probably do not even suspect of the existence of any other history.

However, the cultural isolation does not entail the economic one. Turkmenistan’s proved gas reserves amount to 1.43 trillion cu. meters, oil reserves in the country’s sector of the Caspian Sea are 12 billion metric tons. The biggest part of the energy resources is exported. Turkmenistan’s patrons are Iran, Ukraine and Russia, the latter trying to gain the control over the re-export of the Turkmen gas.

Using the gas faucet, Ashgabat has so far proved that its isolation is impossible. Foreign politicians hurry to go cap in the hand to Turkmenbashi irrespective of their views. The visit of Viktor Yushchenko, the most die-hard democrat among the CIS leaders this March was the most scandalous. The leader of Orange Revolution awarded Turkmenbashi’s father Atamurat Annaniyazov the 5th degree decoration of Yaroslav the Wise (posthumously) to mark the 60th anniversary of the Victory. The Ukrainian president did not have the chance to award Niyazov since his predecessor Leonid Kuchma did it earlier. The Victory decoration was handed by Alexey Ivchenko, the head of the state-run Neftegaz Ukrainy. Yet, it was of no help to bring down the price of the Turkmen gas for Ukraine. This June, Turkmenbashi accused the Ukrainians of swindle and claimed that they owed him $600 million. “You’re cheating us in a very spectacular way and keep the money with you. We won’t have it in the future,” Turkmen president upbraided the Ukrainians.

Undue familiarity with business partners is Turkmenbashi’s corporate identity. France-based Bouygues, the second-largest construction firm in Europe, became involved in a scandal this June. Since 1995, it has received from Turkmenbashi $1.5 billion-worth orders, among which are the construction of the president’s neighborhood, mosques, the university, a theater and an ice stadium. The French unveiled last year the Mosque of the Spirituality of Turkmenbashi (the biggest in the Central Asia) and the mausoleum of the life president in his family village of Kipchak. But the client was dissatisfied and gave a dressing down to the company’s vice president, Aldo Carbonaro. Niyazov said the golden dome of the mosque turned into “grayish brown and purple”. “Listen, why are you cheating us? We have no trust in you left. We are the only country where you get paid in cash. Bring to us only qualified people, not those shady builders who don’t know how to nail. And watch workers so that they behave,” Niyazov stormed. “We completely agree with you, Mister President. We will do our utmost to solve the problem,” the representative of Bouygues was obedient.

However, in spite of his ungovernable character, Turkmenbashi has an admirable ability of coming to an agreement. For example, the UN has recently had an idea to set up its permanent mission to monitor the Central Asia. Believe it or not, Turkmenistan was proposed to host the headquarters as the most stable country in the region.

Pressure

The negotiation talent helps Turkmenbashi to successfully withstand any external pressure. The incident of the cancellation of the Russian-Turkmen dual citizenship is illustrative of it. President Putin and President Niyazov sealed two documents on April 10, 2003: the 25-year agreement on supplies of the Turkmen gas to Russia and the protocol on the cancellation of the dual citizenship. Under the latter document, more than 100,000 Russian-speaking citizens of Turkmenistan with the dual citizenship would have to make a choice within two months which citizenship to prefer. The agreement stirred an outrage at the State Duma. The head of the legislature’s foreign affairs committee, Dmitry Rogozin claimed that the Turkmenbashi regime is closely linked to the Taliban and Russian-speaking citizens are oppressed in the country. The Duma passed a special declaration on the Observance of the Rights of Russian Citizens in Turkmenistan, while the Foreign Ministry struggled over the review of the agreements for a few months. Moscow has not raised the Turkmen issue since summer 2003, though. In return, Ashgabad agreed to sell gas to Russia at the previous rate of $48 per a cu. meter, not at $60 as it had planned. On top of it, Turkmenistan has almost forgotten about their project of the trans-Afghanistan gas pipeline evading the Russian territory, to the pleasure of Moscow. In these circumstances, Moscow was not concerned that Russian schools and the country’s oldest Russian theater had been shut down in the republic.

In theory, the United States could pose a threat to the Turkmenbashi regime. The Bush administration is known for its love to export democracy using increasingly coercive pressure. But Russia helped Saparmurat Niyazov here. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization, at the initiative of Moscow and Beijing, demanded that the United States fix a schedule of their pull-out from the Central Asia. Uzbekistan soon announced the expulsion of the U.S. base in Karshi-Khanabad from its territory. Considering the strained relation with Iran, it came as a serious blow to the influence of the States in the region.

Just out of the blue, the commander-in-chief of the U.S. Central Command John Abizaid came in Ashgabat on a three-day visit on August 22 to meet Turkmenbashi and the country’s military. The press claimed the main goal of the talks was the creation of U.S. military bases in Turkmenistan bordering on Iran and Afghanistan. The country’s airspace, by the way, was opened for U.S. aircrafts in 2001. American planes can refuel at airports of Ashgabat and Mary. If the information is confirmed, Turkmenistan will have to give up its neutral status, which is, after all, a paltry price for the American protection. Be it coincidence or not, Turkmenistan slammed the door to the CIS just a week after Gen. Abizaid’s visit.