The hidden cost of free trade

THE WASHINGTON TIMES ^ | September 18, 2005 | Jeffrey Sparshott

[redgolum]

Yes I did see it. Have you seen the placement stats for undergrad engineers? The market is very saturated, and while starting wages are high, the jobs aren't there. I work with 8 fellow chemical engineers, and all are working below that $55k supposed starting wage. Most of my classmates in college are also below that.

As to getting more educated, you are right. But for many engineering disciplines a masters won't help you and a PhD can work against you. Most engineers that go for higher ed go to an MBA (as am I), but typically they stop being engineers.

[redgolum]

My point was for a high school senior today, I would not recommend engineering. If they can hack it, law would be a better shot. The jobs are just not there right now.

In chemical engineering, there has been little job growth since the early 90's. The new hires today are replacing the retiree's from yesterday for the most part. This might pick up in the years ahead, but face it, if you don't have an industrial base you don't need engineers.

[1rudeboy]

If they can hack it, law would be a better shot.

I am mystified why people think that law is a good field to pursue. The problems you describe all exist in law as well, and the hours are worse.

[investigateworld]

I think it comes down too how one sees the future of the world. Are we all eating Jello Pubb'n Pops and singing Kumbaya?
Not really we have a very nasty country which is growing exponentially through Free Trade which IMHO threatens this nation.
Not only does this nation run tanks over it's own citizens who merely want a voice, but sits idly by while it's neighbor has a million people starve to death.
Even beyond that, but they can make money dealing with Wal-Mart. Now that takes B@lls.

[redgolum]

I am mystified why people think that law is a good field to pursue. The problems you describe all exist in law as well, and the hours are worse.

Interesting. Didn't really think about the hours (50-60 for me, what is a lawyers workload?) Why is the market for lawyer's jobs depressed? To many applicants?

[v. crow]

Not necessarily. If you have 5 extremely qualified and productive guys for 1 position the salary might get very low, at or below the subsistence level.

That's right. Did you miss the part of that same post where I said the price of labor is determined by supply and demand? My point is that demand is in large part affected by the productivity of a given person's labor. The four least productive of those guys are going to transfer their qualifications to another job. They're quite unlikely to remain unemployed just so they can spite their guy who did get hired into accepting below subsistence wages.

The number of jobs for a particular product or service is limited by the demand of the market for the product or service. However, jobs as a whole are not a scarce resource. Human demands for things are unlimited; jobs as a whole are only limited by productivity in high demand production allowing excess labor to be profitably diverted to other products.

[expat_panama]

So you would protect a US manufacturing base that prohibits child labor...

OK, I would; but what's wrong with that-- you're against this?  You might want to try rewriting this post.

[1rudeboy]

I can only speak from anecdotal evidence, but take Chicago, for example. Four schools downtown, De Paul, Kent, Loyola, and Marshall. Two schools nearby, Northwestern, and U. of C. Two others qualify as "super-regionals" (my term) Northern, and U. of I. Nearby, Valparaiso and Notre Dame.

U of C., Northwestern, U. of I., and Notre Dame are first-tier. Two or three of the downtown schools are second-tier.

Let's simply say that if you wish to work for a prestigious downtown firm, and live that "lifestyle" (nice car, nice condo, etc.) then you'd better go to one of the top tier schools. If you have the misfortune of attending one of the second-tier schools, then you'd best be a member of Law Review or go to work for Daddy. Otherwise, you are destined to become a worker-bee, taking the train to and from your dismal place in the suburbs, and drinking heavily before you see the wife who does nothing but complain that she cannot understand why her friend's friend at Kirkland & Ellis or Baker & MacKenzie just bought a summer home in Michigan and you can't. (ok, so I'm exaggerating)

[Paul Ross]

OK, I would; but what's wrong with that-- you're against this? You might want to try rewriting this post.

No need. Nothing is wrong with your view at all.

It's just that you have now placed yourself athwart some of the more doctrinaire of the ideological extremists who are so vocal about untrammeled U.S. import trade.

Watch your six!

[A. Pole]

I am mystified why people think that law is a good field to pursue.

What are the best fields to pursue in the country with little manufacturing? For example in Argentina?

I would imagine it would be lawyers, physicians and government positions.

[expat_panama]

... economy has been doing fairly well right now-...   .... what you and many others are missing is our concern for what holds for the future of the US in 10-15 years by letting our manufacturing base go to get todays cheap goods...

Your saying that "the economy has been doing fairly well" gets my hopes up that we can all work together with the kind of standard measurements that those of us working in the industry use.    You are right on the money with the need to look at 15 years down the line ---but step one is to make sure we're able to see clearly what's going on now.  Some say everyone has his own reality --but we can't even talk to each other unless we can both agree that there's no 'your' reality and 'my' reality -- just the reality, and the economy.   

What is this "letting our manufacturing base go" thing.  Is that for in 2020 or is it something we already did?   When you say that the economy is good now, are talking about jobs, wages, gdp, inflation, and manufacturing output --or are you saying everything is good except manufacturing which is bad.   Let's look together at stuff like manufacturing output, industry profits, pay scales--  hard measurements that anyone can run a business on.   I can't use a blog that comes from say, Maurine Dowd.

In the mean time, maybe we can work on the "wages are stagnant" (498) crowd and bring them on board.

[expat_panama]

that you have now placed yourself athwart some of the more doctrinaire of the ideological extremists

LOL --that's what my wife keeps telling me, that I'm athwart everyone.   It doesn't matter what political or religious persuasion someone has, I always disagree on something.

Sure, I always agree on something too, but that's boring.

[1rudeboy]

What are the best fields to pursue in the country with little manufacturing? For example in Argentina?

Whereever are you going with these questions? I'm dying to know. You might as well ask me about the job opportunities in outer space.

[Ronzo]

Anything other than your word that this is happening?

Good question...but I've been unable to find any good data on wages. Usually there is just some lump-sum number, but for wage data to be meaningful we need to see it in terms of a career field vs time vs numbers.

For instance, wages for Economic professors has alledgedy gone up faster than the rate of inflation, according to the WSJ. However, in order for that data to be meaningful to me, I would like to see a total numbers for economic professors for the past 10 to 20 years, and their average salary for each of those years.

Sadly, it's difficult to find this kind of information for particular career fields, especially blue-collar.

One thing you learn quickly in economics is how easily it is to lie with statistics.

[Ronzo]

Thanks for the chart rudeboy! It's good to see that many of the traditional math-based fields are still in demand, especially engineering...

However....

It's one thing to be a newly minted college grad, and another to be out in the field for a while, and then be laid-off, like so many have been in the past several yaers.

Once you get experience + higher wages, it's very, very difficult to find a position that pays the same as the old one, if you can find one at all....

[Ronzo]

Most new health care workers are from overseas, and work for less than American born workers in the same fields. Don't tell them to go into health care.

I've noticed that...the last time my wife was in the hospital, I was surprised at how many nurses spoke with a slightly foreign accent.

And yet, as far as I understand it, there is still a growing demand for more healthcare workers. Go figure.

[Ronzo]

One thing for sure: my children will definately have to know there math. That will be easy for my son, but my daughter would be better off in marketing or graphic design....or even sales....

On thing for sure, there will ALWAYS be a need for salesmen...

[investigateworld]

Using rough figures only, it looks like this worker has lost about $6,500 per year in income (2080 x $3.00 P/H) and I doubt she now has health insurance. Depending on her family size she was prolly in the 12% bracket, again rough figures. So the guber'mint has lost money from her tax base - oh, did I mention the 14% SS tax. That money has to come from somewhere .... any suggestions?