Hurricane Rita Live Thread

NHC - NOAA ^ | 20 September 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[seeker41]

Seeker41,Blam

[raygun]

Uh, right on top of my head?

[Howlin]

Yeah, right off the top of your head.

[hobson]

Yikes! I missed this part before:

THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY INDICATING RAPID INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. DURING THE PAST 14 HOURS...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DECREASED 20 MB...OR AT A RATE OF ABOUT 2 DVORAK T-NUMBERS PER 24 HOURS. WHILE SUCH A LARGE PRESSURE FALL TREND RARELY OCCURS FOR MORE THAN 24 HOURS...THE VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN AND 30C-31C SSTS BENEATH RITA SUGGEST THAT RAPID INTENSIFICATION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 24 HOURS. A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS WELL ESTABLISHED WITH OUTFLOW ACCUMULATING INTO A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW...OR MASS SINK...EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. IN ADDITION... AN EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ALSO APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING. GIVEN THE DUAL OUTFLOW PATTERN THAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS...STRENGTHENING INTO A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. BY 72 HOURS... A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BRING ABOUT SOME WEAKENING. HOWEVER...THE GFS-BASED SHIPS MODEL THAT IS INDICATING 25-30 KT OF SHEAR MAY BE INCLUDING THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG OUTFLOW PATTERN DEPICTED BY THE MODEL. THIS WOULD MEAN THAT THE GFS SHEAR IS TOO HIGH...AND THUS...THE SHARP GFS WEAKENING OF RITA DOWN TO 99 KT AT LANDFALL WOULD BE PREMATURE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST LEANS CLOSER TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE INTENSITY FORECAST OF 122 KT IN 48 HOURS AND 126 KT IN 60 HOURS.

[HoustonCurmudgeon]

Ha! Here was my thinking: My husband drives up there about 2x a month. It typically takes him about 4.5 hours. Since he typically drives like a bat out of hell I figured 4.5 x 85 mph which is about 383 miles. It takes us a little over an hour to get to Galveston (once again driving like a bat out of hell), so that was an additional 50-60 miles. Did some generous rounding of numbers and that's my math! LOL =)

Well it's 240 miles from downtown Houston to downtown Dallas and 50 miles to Galveston. Perhaps you have failed to account for the stop he makes to eat BBQ?

[Cudjo]

I believe Jaded is in Houston

[raygun]

What you're missing is where are these reported winds located? Does it say? Are these surface winds, or are they 3 stories up? Since the report doesn't explicitely say, they must be on the surface. Only stands to reason, eh?

[onyx]

Good to know. Thanks. Take care and try to keep us posted. I hope you don't lose your electricity.

[hobson]

Me?

[Termite_Commander]

There's a 2 AM advisory. One every 3 hours.

[james_f_hall]

Guess I will wake up to a CAT3 or CAT4 I need sleep.

[bonfire]

We've got one hour to discuss recipes and food.

[Gabz]

I live only 15 miles from the Atlantic, but am not particularly afraid of storms (lightening does freak me out, but that's a personal problem) - however, I have a huge respect for them.

I have never lived in a trailer, but have many friends who have at one point or another in their lives and so have been in many. I was at a friend's back in 1983 during a violent thunderstorm in Dover, Delaware - even knowing how freaky I am about T'storms she hands me her fussy 7 month old to hold while she, her husband and my fiance run around battening down. Everything was swaying - the noises outside were bizarre. We were OK, but the 1-ton concrete cover of the park septic system came loose and more than 2 dozen trailers were moved off their foundations, and one was knocked on it's side - that was only 2 away from us.


It took NWS 3 days to finally state what those of us there knew - a tornado went through that trailer park - a small one, but one nonetheless.

"Trailer parks" have changed over the years, but the older ones still exist, and they truly are hurricane and tornado magnets.

[onyx]

Oh hobson, you too! I'm glad to know that. You take care sweetie. I was sort of surprised when Kat knocked out our power for 5 days... given that we're 150 miles from the gulf coast.

[Termite_Commander]

If you can keep your eyes pried open until 1:30 or so, we might see a Vortex update, which would give an idea on what the storm's up to.

[onyx]

Thanks. We really need to try to keep track of our FRiends in her projected path.

[VeniVidiVici]

Have a safe trip.

You're making the right decision no matter where Rita ends-up making landfall.

[Howlin]

You're not really arguing that because of WHERE your claimed 80 kts were that she wasn't a CAT 4, are you?

And while you're thinking of an answer for that, how about finding a link where ANY hurricane has been reported with SURFACE winds only.

---

Hurricane Katrina was one of the strongest storms to impact the coast of the United States during the last 100 years. With sustained winds during landfall of 140 mph (a strong category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale) and minimum central pressure the third lowest on record at landfall (920 mb), Katrina caused widespread devastation along the central Gulf Coast states of the US. Cities such as New Orleans, LA, Mobile, AL, and Gulfport, MS bore the brunt of Katrina's force and will need weeks and months of recovery efforts to restore normality.

--snip--

Windspeeds over 140 mph were recorded at landfall in southeastern Louisiana while winds gusted to over 100 mph in New Orleans, just west of the eye. As the hurricane made its second landfall on the Mississippi/Louisiana border, windspeeds were approximately 110 kts (125 mph). Gusts of over 80mph were recorded in Mobile and 90 mph in Biloxi, MS.

[DrewsMum]

if you don't mind me asking where in MS are you?

[Termite_Commander]

lol

Okay, discourage me from eating the cake which taunts me from the kitchen.