Is there going to be a 1am update or nothing til 5am?
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY INDICATING RAPID INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. DURING THE PAST 14 HOURS...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DECREASED 20 MB...OR AT A RATE OF ABOUT 2 DVORAK T-NUMBERS PER 24 HOURS. WHILE SUCH A LARGE PRESSURE FALL TREND RARELY OCCURS FOR MORE THAN 24 HOURS...THE VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN AND 30C-31C SSTS BENEATH RITA SUGGEST THAT RAPID INTENSIFICATION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 24 HOURS. A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS WELL ESTABLISHED WITH OUTFLOW ACCUMULATING INTO A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW...OR MASS SINK...EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. IN ADDITION... AN EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ALSO APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING. GIVEN THE DUAL OUTFLOW PATTERN THAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS...STRENGTHENING INTO A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. BY 72 HOURS... A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BRING ABOUT SOME WEAKENING. HOWEVER...THE GFS-BASED SHIPS MODEL THAT IS INDICATING 25-30 KT OF SHEAR MAY BE INCLUDING THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG OUTFLOW PATTERN DEPICTED BY THE MODEL. THIS WOULD MEAN THAT THE GFS SHEAR IS TOO HIGH...AND THUS...THE SHARP GFS WEAKENING OF RITA DOWN TO 99 KT AT LANDFALL WOULD BE PREMATURE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST LEANS CLOSER TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE INTENSITY FORECAST OF 122 KT IN 48 HOURS AND 126 KT IN 60 HOURS.
There's a 2 AM advisory. One every 3 hours.