Why does the weather people have this storm turning north? Why couldn't it go straight into Mexico or southern Tx? I can't understand how they figure it will turn north.
Thanks!
I think the high pressure to the north is sliding south faster than expected.
There's an area of low pressure over the west-central US that's supposed to drift to the east and draw the storm towards it. When this takes place is a function of how fast it moves and how fast Rita moves.
The weather people are not out there waving this magic wand, chanting "Go to Houston, Go to Houston."
The science of meterology gets into steering currents and wind paths that guide weather systems.
The short answer? There's a weather system that Rita will slide around. Exactly where she will fall will depend on how fast the surrounding systems move to guide her toward the coast.
Caveats: the ridge may or may not weaken, extend as far to the east as expected in the models, may weaken more or less, Rita is so big that damage-wise it might not matter much; and finally I barely know what I'm talking about. ;)
Because these things "usually" turn north. However, Austin tv is showing it's going to go west. There had been a high pressure system over Texas that would have enabled the turn north, but yesterday the system separated. A large portion of the system is moving east and another portion is moving southwest, thus leaving nice clear empty space right through the Galveston/Houston area to "pull" the storm into.
Essentially because a high pressure system is moving out of the area, it was this high that was keeping it south.