Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part V

NHC - NOAA ^ | 22 September 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[nwctwx]

Based on how long she strengthened before getting into this ERC, I am concerned she may end up at best just start getting into the next cycle before she hits land.

She's heading into the Eddy Vortex south of LA now. There is a finger of very warm water from there straight to HOU. Hopefully she doesn't follow that. I see many saying HOU is looking better, but it's still close right now.

Looks like she will level out with the pressure rise shortly, as the new eye takes over. There should be at least some strengthening after that I would think.

If she doesn't come to a crawl offshore, it's almost a sure bet that she comes in as a cat4. The main thing that would hinder it in my opinion would be her sitting off the coast and sucking in dry air off the landmass. I mentioned this a few days ago as the best case scenario.

[steveegg]

Fresh Vortex Data message from a 2nd AF flight - data appears to be shaky, so take with appropriate amounts of salt -

000
URNT12 KNHC 230045
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/00:27:50Z
B. 26 deg 00 min N
  089 deg 57 min W
C. NA  mb NA   m
D. NA  kt
E. NA  deg     nm
F. 221 deg 114 kt
G. 130 deg 021 nm
H. EXTRAP  916 mb
I.  16 C/ 2439 m
J.  20 C/ 2436 m
K.  19 C/ NA
L. OPEN E-SW
M. CO18-35
N. 12345/NA
O. 0.02 /  1 nm
P. AF306 WX18A RITA01       OB 20
MAX FL WIND 125 KT NE QUAD 23:21:20 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
OUTER EYEWALL APPEARED CLOSED

[meyer]

No no no.... the airborne Volvo. Ron White said so.

Volvos are safe - even airborne ones.

[geopyg]

"Only God knows what ANY gal is about to do!"

[don-o]

Thanks for the update, steve. Just got in, and it helps a lot.

[Guenevere]

Love those donuts :)

[RoseofTexas]

I hate this roller coaster!! It reminds me of a see-saw football game!! UGHHHHHHH, GO AWAY RITA, GO THE HECK AWAY!!!

[Eric in the Ozarks]

Prayers for y'all.

[NautiNurse]

He hasn't the slightest idea what is going on in and around Houston...

Did you try to explain to him? For a moment there, I thought your story was going to end with you giving him your 55 gallons of gasoline...

I topped off my tank, and stocked up an additional 15 gal. this afternoon. I felt like I was stealing cookies from the cookie jar.

[McLynnan]

I don't think we have any reason to be uneasy around here.

Me either. Besides, how many times have we been promised rain and it all went east of I-35? That said, our neighbors to the southeast need lots of prayers. Good luck with your efforts in Bosque County. The hospital is prepared should we need to house tranfers from more hard hit areas.

[james_f_hall]

Unfortunately if she stalls at the coast, or just off the coast that is a lot of rain and wind still for the area she is stalled off of. Lets hope Rita doesn't become Allison's bigger, meaner and uglier sister!

[LikeLight]

8 or 10 vehicles stranded at Exxon with no fuel...no pickup for them available...metro buses at Petro to take people stranded there to airport...

Beaumont scanner

[AFPhys]

Thank you for acknowledging (last thread) my statement suggesting the importance of sharpening the chain saw, in order to stretch your gas useage. I was glad to read you appreciated the reminder.

[NormsRevenge]

Her-ricane 'Rita Cosby is asking why weren't southbound lanes opened earlier to northbound traffic,,

That voice is enough to drive a man to drink, imo. ;-)

Thanks for all the thread work. :)

[tcrlaf]

Beat me to it!

Sounds like they have plenty of Aircraft for EVAC...

[NautiNurse]

Fifteen Katrina threads, and the vast majority were after the storm made landfall.

[nwctwx]

'As I said earlier though, don't see how the Coastal waters could support that, so she just has to weaken again before landfall.'

Unless she is crawling, the waters all the way to the coast are warm enough to support a cat 5.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/atlpot.png

I do think she will probably get back to that level at some point before landfall. She probably won't hit as a cat 5, but you never know. I'd like to see her strengthen right away, then go through ERC as landfall occurs. Hopefully she doesn't wait to strengthen for too long.

Good point about the waves... they have been building for a very long time now, even longer than with Katrina. I saw maps of 50-60' waves NE of the center... it's going to be another nightmare along the coast to the east of where she comes in.

[don-o]

That's some hope - stall off the coast and consume some dry air. Thanks for your ongoing contribtions to the thread.

[james_f_hall]

I just had some today at breakfast time.