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Global/USA Crash Lurking?
comstockfunds.com ^ | 10/07/05 | comstockfunds

Posted on 10/07/2005 10:49:13 AM PDT by thinking4me

(10/07) A High-Risk Market ...... Even before the twin hurricanes the consumer savings rate had turned negative, household debt was at record highs and home owners were using soaring home prices as huge ATM machines yielding hundreds of billions of dollars in cash. With housing prices starting to soften, energy prices still high and real wages under pressure, consumers’ ability to spend seems severely restricted in the period ahead. These trends have been further exacerbated by the two hurricanes that have created negative domino effects throughout the economy. So far consumers have felt the impact of higher gasoline prices, but with the coming of cold weather they will be facing heating costs that are estimated to be up by about 70% from last winter. At the same time minimum monthly payments on credit cards are rising while interest rates on the cards are also going up. All of these factors have resulted in a sharp drop in consumer confidence. The continuing problems in Iraq and Iran as well as the decline in the President’s approval ratings have also added to the general malaise. History strongly indicates that such low approval ratings and bull markets are usually not compatible.....


TOPICS: Business/Economy
KEYWORDS: banks; crash; debts; doomandgloom; financialcrises; theendisnigh; theendoftheendisnigh; theendoftheworld; theskyisfalling; worldbanking
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(10/07) Fed's Fisher Says `Inflation Virus' Must Be Stopped Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher said policy makers must prevent an ``inflation virus'' from disrupting the U.S. economy and financial system. Fisher, in the text of a speech in Waco, Texas, today also repeated earlier comments that inflation shows ``little inclination'' to slow and is moving closer to the ``upper end of the Fed's tolerance zone.'' ..... ``Money flows are an economy's lifeblood, and the Federal Reserve's great responsibility lies in maintaining the cardiovascular system of American capitalism,'' said Fisher, a voting member of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee. ....

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=aOeRq_GAEGK8&refer=top_world_news"MORE - BLOOMBERG.COM

1 posted on 10/07/2005 10:49:18 AM PDT by thinking4me
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To: thinking4me

I wonder if they're going to bite the bullet and raise 50 basis points next time...


2 posted on 10/07/2005 10:50:57 AM PDT by Rutles4Ever (Stuck on Genius)
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To: thinking4me

Wow economics "experts" that don't know what the M in ATM stands for, definitely must follow advice here.


3 posted on 10/07/2005 10:51:22 AM PDT by discostu (When someone tries to kill you, you try to kill them right back)
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To: thinking4me
Alas, when one sees the tsunami of debt ready to engluf the US, yes in my opinion a global crash is lurking... GOT GOLD/SILVER?... TIME TO RETURN TO CONSTITUTIONAL MONEY NOW!
4 posted on 10/07/2005 10:51:55 AM PDT by thinking4me (The Founding Fathers were right: sound money first)
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Comment #5 Removed by Moderator

To: Certain_Doom

Ahahaha, yes back to gold! Thanks for the laugh.
-----
Not a bad idea :-) back to putting your teeth marks in your money and to hell with the government, the Fed, and the national debt....hmmm.


6 posted on 10/07/2005 11:01:21 AM PDT by EagleUSA
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To: Certain_Doom
The problem is DEBT, even with the gold standard it is possible to debase the currency if issuing too much debts. The only difference is that under the gold standard one knows when one has reached a threat level... The keynesian miracle is system without real warning until...

Remember the asian, russian and argentinian crises. They all happened because of DEBTS.

question: why do investors rush into safe havens when the maket tanks... any idea??

DEBT AND DELUSIONS

"By a continuous process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. By this method, they not only confiscate, but they confiscate arbitrarily; and while the process impoverishes many, it actually enriches some....The process engages all of the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner that not one man in a million can diagnose." - John Maynard Keynes Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920

"The central bank is an institution of the most deadly hostility existing against the Principles and form of our Constitution. I am an Enemy to all banks discounting bills or notes for anything but Coin. If the American People allow private banks to control the issuance of their currency, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the People of all their Property until their Children will wake up homeless on the continent their Fathers conquered. "... - Thomas Jefferson

7 posted on 10/07/2005 11:06:04 AM PDT by thinking4me (The Founding Fathers were right: sound money first)
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To: thinking4me

Return to the gold standard would be one way to shrink the money supply by an draconian amount. I dont't think you would like the consequences of mass bankruptcies and caos.


8 posted on 10/07/2005 11:14:15 AM PDT by zek157
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To: thinking4me

This piece is really an ad for Comstock Funds which, IIRC, is a single bear market fund. Their speciality is "scaring up" business. I imagine if there isn't a bust soon in the economy, there will be one at Comstock Funds headquarters.


9 posted on 10/07/2005 11:25:09 AM PDT by Dark Skies ("...to them that love God, all things work together unto good..." Romans 8:28)
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To: thinking4me

ah, yes, put more money in gold, definitely. and oil, too. actually you might be a little late on oil as it seems to have topped over the past few weeks. but you can still lose money with gold, definitely! doom! doom! doom! ROFLMAO!


10 posted on 10/07/2005 11:29:49 AM PDT by Steven W.
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To: Dark Skies
This piece is really an ad for Comstock Funds

RE:

RE: l@@@@@k at the chart.... it is not exaggerate. wE ARE THREATENENED WITH HYPERINFLATION... WEIMAR USA?

11 posted on 10/07/2005 11:30:31 AM PDT by thinking4me (The Founding Fathers were right: sound money first)
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To: zek157
Return to the gold standard would be one way to shrink the money supply by an draconian amount. I dont't think you would like the consequences of mass bankruptcies and caos.

RE; A systemic collapse would provide the best opportunity EVER to return to the gold standard.

REST ASSURED, THERE WILL BE A MASSIVE DEBT LIQUIDATION ANYWAY

12 posted on 10/07/2005 11:34:26 AM PDT by thinking4me (The Founding Fathers were right: sound money first)
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To: thinking4me
l@@@@@k at the chart

What is this, ebay?

13 posted on 10/07/2005 11:34:31 AM PDT by Jalapeno
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To: thinking4me
Sorry, I don't buy it. There is much more going on in the world economic engine regards inflation than can be explained by that graph. If I had more time, I would enjoy a discussion of this matter. But I don't today...sorry.

Regarding Comstock Funds, here is a link to their fund performance. You will notice that they always have a negative return.

Comstock Fund Performance

14 posted on 10/07/2005 11:40:51 AM PDT by Dark Skies ("...to them that love God, all things work together unto good..." Romans 8:28)
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To: thinking4me
Also, don't you think the debt markets are aware of this graph and all other current economic factors. But where are interest rates? Do they reflect fear of inflation? The debt markets are very efficient, they will tell you daily what very clever money managers are thinking about inflation.

For anyone interested, here is a chart of long-term treasury rates...you will notice that they have steadily declined over the last 5 years.

LT Treasury Rate Graph

15 posted on 10/07/2005 11:49:32 AM PDT by Dark Skies ("...to them that love God, all things work together unto good..." Romans 8:28)
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To: Dark Skies

Look at the date on that chart 2002, you might want to use something a bit more current.


16 posted on 10/07/2005 11:57:24 AM PDT by BooBoo1000 (Some times I wake up grumpy, other times I let her sleep/)
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To: Dark Skies

Look at the date on that chart 2002, you might want to use something a bit more current.


17 posted on 10/07/2005 11:57:31 AM PDT by BooBoo1000 (Some times I wake up grumpy, other times I let her sleep/)
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To: Dark Skies

Look at the date on that chart 2002, you might want to use something a bit more current.


18 posted on 10/07/2005 11:57:36 AM PDT by BooBoo1000 (Some times I wake up grumpy, other times I let her sleep/)
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To: BooBoo1000

My chart runs from 2000 to March of 2005...current yield on a 30 treasuries per Bloomberg is 4.57%. You must be thinking of someone else's chart.


19 posted on 10/07/2005 12:04:57 PM PDT by Dark Skies ("...to them that love God, all things work together unto good..." Romans 8:28)
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To: BooBoo1000

Correction...not March, 2005 but September 30, 2005. It may take time to transmit all the info if you are on a slow connection.


20 posted on 10/07/2005 12:07:51 PM PDT by Dark Skies ("...to them that love God, all things work together unto good..." Romans 8:28)
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