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Tropical Storm Wilma Live Thread
NOAA - NHC ^ | 17 October 2005 | NOAA - NHC

Posted on 10/17/2005 1:39:34 AM PDT by NautiNurse

The 2005 hurricane season continues to alter the record books. Tropical Storm Wilma has formed in the Caribbean Sea.

NHC Public Advisories
NHC Discussions

Storm Floater IR Loop


TOPICS: News/Current Events; US: Florida
KEYWORDS: hurricane; notagain; notthisagain; tropical; weather; wilma
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Track has shifted westward.


1 posted on 10/17/2005 1:39:36 AM PDT by NautiNurse
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To: kalee; kayak; ken5050; kimmie7; Kretek; LA Woman3; lainie; LBKQ; Letitring; ...

Say hello to Tropical Storm Wilma

2 posted on 10/17/2005 1:41:49 AM PDT by NautiNurse
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To: aberaussie; Alas Babylon!; Alia; alnick; Amelia; asp1; AntiGuv; Bahbah; balrog666; blam; Blennos; ..

Say hello to Tropical Storm Wilma

3 posted on 10/17/2005 1:42:02 AM PDT by NautiNurse
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To: NautiNurse
I see we're both up early this morning monitoring this thing. :)

As the track keeps moving further west, it looks like she'll probably miss both of us here in Florida. Things might not look too good for Louisiana, though, unless she recurves east.

4 posted on 10/17/2005 1:43:24 AM PDT by laz (They can bus 'em to the polls, but they can't bus 'em out of the path of a Cat 5 hurricane.)
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To: NautiNurse

I still have some of my important papers in plastic bags!


5 posted on 10/17/2005 1:43:26 AM PDT by MEG33 (GOD BLESS OUR ARMED FORCES)
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To: All
Tropical Storm Wilma Advisory Number 7

Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on October 17, 2005

...Tropical Storm Wilma becomes the 21st named storm of the 2005
   Atlantic season over the northwestern Caribbean Sea...
...Ties the record for named storms set back in 1933...

 
a Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for
the Cayman Islands.

 
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

 
At 5 am EDT...0900z...the center of Tropical Storm Wilma was located
near latitude 17.2 north... longitude 79.7 west or about 175 miles
... 280 km... southeast of Grand Cayman.

 

Wilma is moving toward the southwest near  3 mph... 6 km/hr. A slow
motion toward the southwest or west is expected during the next 24
hours.  However...steering currents remain weak and some erratic
motion is possible during the next day or two.

 
Satellite data indicate that maximum sustained winds are estimated
to be near  40 mph... 65 km/hr...with higher gusts. This makes
Wilma the 21st named tropical storm of the 2005 Atlantic hurricane
season... which ties the record of 21 named storms set back in
1933. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

 
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to  45 miles
... 75 km... mainly southwest of the center.

 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb...29.53 inches.

 
The depression is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 
4 to 6 inches over the Cayman Islands and Jamaica... with isolated
amounts of 8 to 12 inches possible.

 
Repeating the 5 am EDT position...17.2 N... 79.7 W.  Movement
toward...southwest near  3 mph.  Maximum sustained
winds... 40 mph.  Minimum central pressure...1000 mb.

 
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 8 am EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 11 am EDT.

 
Forecaster Stewart

6 posted on 10/17/2005 1:44:00 AM PDT by NautiNurse
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To: NautiNurse
and from accuweather


7 posted on 10/17/2005 1:44:36 AM PDT by sure_fine (*not one to over kill the thought process*)
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Comment #8 Removed by Moderator

To: NautiNurse

Mayor Nagin, man your school buses.


9 posted on 10/17/2005 1:45:48 AM PDT by jslade (.)
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To: NautiNurse

10 posted on 10/17/2005 1:45:59 AM PDT by Dallas59 (“You love life, while we love death.” - Al-Qaeda / Democratic Party)
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To: sure_fine

I'm hoping Accuweather is wrong. And I'm sure NautiNurse is hoping more than I am.


11 posted on 10/17/2005 1:46:08 AM PDT by laz (They can bus 'em to the polls, but they can't bus 'em out of the path of a Cat 5 hurricane.)
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To: laz
Too early for me. Posted last night's discussion...which I have asked to be deleted.

I like the current SW track. Don't like the slingshot track back east toward FL.

12 posted on 10/17/2005 1:48:07 AM PDT by NautiNurse
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To: sure_fine

Boo! Hiss! Accuweather sucks.


13 posted on 10/17/2005 1:48:08 AM PDT by jslade (.)
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To: jslade

Accuweather's track is too far to the east. It looks like she might go over the Yucatan.


14 posted on 10/17/2005 1:55:05 AM PDT by laz (They can bus 'em to the polls, but they can't bus 'em out of the path of a Cat 5 hurricane.)
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To: NautiNurse

That storm is just meandering all over the place in such a small area!


15 posted on 10/17/2005 1:57:25 AM PDT by BigSkyFreeper ("Tucker Carlson could reveal himself as a castrated, lesbian, rodeo clown ...wouldn't surprise me")
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To: BigSkyFreeper

Too soon to know where she is heading..IMO.


16 posted on 10/17/2005 1:59:14 AM PDT by MEG33 (GOD BLESS OUR ARMED FORCES)
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To: MEG33
Yep. The tracks, whether by the NHC or AccuWeather are predictions. Predictions based on storms at this time in history, and the temperature of the water, and the current upper and lower atmosphere. They don't call it weather forecasting for nothing. :)
17 posted on 10/17/2005 2:02:16 AM PDT by BigSkyFreeper ("Tucker Carlson could reveal himself as a castrated, lesbian, rodeo clown ...wouldn't surprise me")
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To: NautiNurse

Another one !!!!


18 posted on 10/17/2005 2:05:30 AM PDT by Deetes (Rats ........ Poison ?????)
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To: laz

I stay packed and ready to go...here in FL panhandle we don't wait for schoolbuses or gubment aid to haul us out...LOL!

I'm dreading this one, saw on accuweather earlier that they think a high pressure ridge might keep it away from the northern gulf...and send it either west to Mexico or more easterly toward Tampa or points south.


19 posted on 10/17/2005 2:06:30 AM PDT by goresalooza (Nurses Rock!)
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To: NautiNurse

Hello Wilma - wonder where Fred is?


20 posted on 10/17/2005 2:08:54 AM PDT by dixie sass
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To: NautiNurse

I hope it fizzles out. Enough for this year and still another month to go...


21 posted on 10/17/2005 2:11:30 AM PDT by dixie sass
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To: NautiNurse
Tropical Storm Wilma Discussion Number 7
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on October 17, 2005

 
a tremendous burst of deep convection...with tops as cold as -87c to
-89c... has developed during the past 6 hours near and to the south
and southwest of the alleged center of now Tropical Storm Wilma.
Microwave satellite data along with wind data from NOAA buoy 42057
indicate that the cyclone has been moving slowly south or
southwestward. However... the low-level center does not appear to
be located in the center of the deep convection... rather it is
likely located near the northeastern edge of the -50c cloud tops.
Satellite intensity estimates are a consensus t2.5 from TAFB...
SAB...and AFWA... and a UW-CIMSS 3-hr average ODT intensity
estimate at 17/0545z was t2.8/41 kt. In addition... gradient wind
calculations using the central pressure and nearby pressure values
from the NOAA buoy and Jamaica support 35-kt winds somewhere within
60 nmi of the center. If any 35-kt winds exists... then they are
likely in the southwestern quadrant where the strong convection is
located. Therefore... the initial intensity is set at 35 kt...
which makes Wilma the 21st named tropical storm of the very busy
2005 Atlantic hurricane season. This ties the record set back in
1933.

 
The initial motion is an uncertain 235/03. The general trend in the
convective cloud pattern has been to shift slowly south or
southwestward as mid-level ridging to the north over Florida and
Cuba appear to be the only steering flow available. But on a larger
scale... Wilma remains trapped between to high pressure cells to
the northwest and east of the cyclone. The 00z global models and
the majority of the NHC model guidance has shifted significantly
westward or to the left of the previous guidance and forecast
track. The only models not close to the NHC consensus or GUNA model
are the ECMWF... Canadian... and the GFS 10-member ensemble models.
The ecwmf has been remarkably consistent with its track the past 5
days in moving the cyclone toward the Yucatan Channel. It also was
the only model to early and accurately predict cyclogenesis. The
ECMWF and the Canadian models are also the only models that do not
lose the shortwave trough located over the central U.S. That is
currently moving eastward through the axis of the longwave ridge.
Upper-air data at 00z indicate a good thermal pattern associated
with this trough... which only the ECMWF and Canadian have picked
up on. The shortwave is forecast to dig southeastward down the east
side of the longwave ridge and gradually weaken/erode the
subtropical ridge across Florida... Cuba...and the eastern Gulf of
Mexico by 48 hours. Also... the deep-layer low off the coast of
Baja California in combination with the deep low over the Canadian
Maritimes should help maintain a blocking-type pattern across the
U.S.... which means the steering flow should change little for at
least the next 2-3 days. The official forecast track was only
shifted slightly to the left... or west... of the previous track
out of respect for the consistent ECMWF model... and also until the
evolution of the shortwave trough over the central U.S. Becomes
more certain by later today or tonight.

 
Some mid-level dry air and shear are still undercutting the
impressive upper-level outflow pattern. However... these adverse
conditions appear to be slowly diminishing based on conventional
water vapor imagery and a 17/0155z SSMI water vapor analysis.
Environmental conditions are expected to remain very favorable for
continued intensification throughout the forecast period. Only
possible land interaction with the northeastern Yucatan precludes
forecasting Wilma to become a major hurricane by 120 hours. The
official intensity forecast is a blend of the less robust SHIPS
model and the very bullish GFDL model... with the latter model
making Wilma a 109-kt hurricane by 60 hours.

 
Forecaster Stewart

 
forecast positions and Max winds

 
initial      17/0900z 17.2n  79.7w    35 kt
 12hr VT     17/1800z 17.1n  80.3w    40 kt
 24hr VT     18/0600z 17.2n  81.1w    50 kt
 36hr VT     18/1800z 17.4n  82.0w    60 kt
 48hr VT     19/0600z 17.8n  83.3w    70 kt
 72hr VT     20/0600z 18.5n  85.0w    80 kt
 96hr VT     21/0600z 20.0n  86.5w    90 kt...near northeast Yucatan
120hr VT     22/0600z 22.5n  87.5w    90 kt...near northeast Yucatan

 
$$



22 posted on 10/17/2005 2:12:53 AM PDT by neutrality
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To: NautiNurse
Oh joy! Did that track! (Kidding)

Well, it gives us something to do in between hand wringing over Rove and pillorying Miers. ;)

23 posted on 10/17/2005 2:14:06 AM PDT by newzjunkey (CA: Stop union theft for political agendas with YES on Prop 75! Prolife? YES on Prop 73!)
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To: dixie sass
I hope it fizzles out.

Fizzle out, or maintain a southerly direction. If she gets into the GOM, it's bad news for somebody.

24 posted on 10/17/2005 2:14:46 AM PDT by NautiNurse
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To: NautiNurse

I doubt she'll fizzle out, but we can hope she tracks like Stan did. Although those folks that got hit by Stan don't need any more flooding.


25 posted on 10/17/2005 2:19:59 AM PDT by laz (They can bus 'em to the polls, but they can't bus 'em out of the path of a Cat 5 hurricane.)
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To: laz

Stan buried people in Guatemala under 10 feet of mud.


26 posted on 10/17/2005 2:22:46 AM PDT by NautiNurse
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To: NautiNurse

I just want Wilma to die a nice death right where she is. I would like to see her head out to sea.


27 posted on 10/17/2005 2:24:08 AM PDT by dixie sass
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To: MEG33
Too soon to know where she is heading..IMO

Last nighte's track had her going towards Florida. this morning we see it hitting Yucatan and seeming to trend to NOLA

Whole gulf coast should be keeping an eye on it for next few days.

28 posted on 10/17/2005 2:27:51 AM PDT by SauronOfMordor
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To: dixie sass

Indeed..


29 posted on 10/17/2005 2:28:47 AM PDT by MEG33 (GOD BLESS OUR ARMED FORCES)
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To: sure_fine

I don't like that picture at all!


30 posted on 10/17/2005 2:47:06 AM PDT by tiredoflaundry (I'm still hot , now it just comes in flashes! WBB)
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To: NautiNurse
Image hosted by Photobucket.com
31 posted on 10/17/2005 2:48:23 AM PDT by TXBSAFH (Anytime a Politico says, "Trust Me." I put my hand on my wallet and slowly back away.)
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To: TXBSAFH

LOL, that is a funny pic.

I changed my prediction from the panhandle to Yucatan. Maybe I am in denial but hurricnae that point at Louisiana early hardly ever come here. Hahahhahhahahhahhahahhahahahhahahaha


32 posted on 10/17/2005 2:53:14 AM PDT by cajungirl (no)
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To: SauronOfMordor

Looks like more vacation fun for vistors to Cancun.


33 posted on 10/17/2005 2:55:00 AM PDT by Rebelbase ("There are millions of mediocre Americans, and they, too, deserve to be represented in the USSC. -RH)
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To: TXBSAFH; cajungirl

34 posted on 10/17/2005 3:00:49 AM PDT by NautiNurse
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To: NautiNurse

LOL! That is horribly, darkly funny.


35 posted on 10/17/2005 3:06:01 AM PDT by cajungirl (no)
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To: NautiNurse; All

36 posted on 10/17/2005 3:12:07 AM PDT by backhoe
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To: NautiNurse

Yo, yo, here we go...

"WI-I-I-I-L-MAAAAAA!" (Fred pounding on door during final credits of "The Flintstones")


37 posted on 10/17/2005 3:22:17 AM PDT by buickmackane ("There must be some kind of way out of here..." -- Bob Dylan, "All Along the Watchtower")
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To: sure_fine

Hey...I liked the first forecast better!


38 posted on 10/17/2005 3:23:48 AM PDT by dawn53
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To: NautiNurse

Okay, now this is beginning to suck.


39 posted on 10/17/2005 3:25:54 AM PDT by Lazamataz (Islam is merely Nazism without the snappy fashion sense.)
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To: TXBSAFH

And we've got plenty of it stacked in our Wally Watt, LOL.


40 posted on 10/17/2005 3:27:44 AM PDT by dawn53
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To: dawn53

I got mine from Rita in the garage.


41 posted on 10/17/2005 3:29:17 AM PDT by TXBSAFH (Anytime a Politico says, "Trust Me." I put my hand on my wallet and slowly back away.)
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To: NautiNurse

None of the models have the storm taking that northerly turn.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200524_model.html


42 posted on 10/17/2005 3:51:10 AM PDT by alnick
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To: alnick

The 5AM NHC discussion provides analysis of the models. See post #22.


43 posted on 10/17/2005 4:00:40 AM PDT by NautiNurse
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To: NautiNurse

I hereby demand Accuweather's model be totally wrong.


44 posted on 10/17/2005 4:01:37 AM PDT by SE Mom (God Bless those who serve..)
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To: NautiNurse

Thanks for the head's up!


45 posted on 10/17/2005 4:27:19 AM PDT by Alia
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To: NautiNurse

I am ready for this season to be over.


46 posted on 10/17/2005 4:34:54 AM PDT by mathluv
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To: NautiNurse
Track has shifted westward.

WAY westward!

Go Astros!

47 posted on 10/17/2005 4:50:31 AM PDT by Flyer (My FReeper Friends ROCK!)
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To: Dallas59
That's not the Wilma I had in mind...

...

48 posted on 10/17/2005 5:05:02 AM PDT by Hatteras
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To: NautiNurse

My sister has decided to move from the MS Gulf Coast up here to SC...looks like she is just in time for Wilma to follow her!


49 posted on 10/17/2005 5:07:01 AM PDT by 4everontheRight (Criminals feed on the indulgence of society's understanding)
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To: NautiNurse

http://www.kplctv.com/Global/link.asp?L=159592

Here's the local meteorologist's weather blog on Wilma. He did a great job with Rita.


50 posted on 10/17/2005 5:15:21 AM PDT by CajunConservative
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