Russia exercises its political determination with Condoleezza Rice

US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice arrived in Moscow on October 14 with a short unscheduled visit. Ms. Rice conducted negotiations with the head of the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and then had a meeting with President Vladimir Putin. The subject of the talks was devoted to the nuclear program of Iran; the officials also touched upon the current state of affairs in Central Asia and other countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States.

Condoleezza Rice's visit to Moscow became quite a surprising political event in Russia's political life. The secretary finished her Asian tour, flew over to Paris, but suddenly changed her plans and headed to Moscow. Brushing the abrupt turn of events aside, one may say that Ms. Rice's visit to Moscow was meant to happen sooner or later against the background of USA's worsening relations with some of the Asian states of the former USSR and a whole bouquet of other problems in the US-Russian relations.

During her talks with the Russian Minister for Foreign Affairs, Sergei Lavrov, and then with President Putin, Condoleezza Rice was trying to prove to the Russian administration that there was absolutely no need for Iran to develop even a peace nuclear program. The nuclear power plant in Iran's Bushehr, Rice said, may become the site to produce weapons of mass destruction.

The Russian officials clearly said, though, that the construction of the above-mentioned power plant, in which Russia has been involved for 12 years already, was not going to be stopped. Furthermore, Minister Lavrov said that there was no need to send the IAEA's report on the nuclear program of Tehran to the UN Security Council. On the other hand, Russia is not interested in making Iran become a nuclear power, the minister concluded.

The USA is quite concerned about another Mideastern state, Syria. In addition to terrorist-supporting accusation, the US administration suspects the Syrian government of plotting the assassination of the former Lebanese Prime Minister, Rafik Hariri. Russia, however, does not intend to shut down the ongoing cooperation with Syria either.

One may thus infer that the USA has received a clear token of Russia's disagreement upon the creation of the "new Middle East" under the US guidance. Russia will continue its cooperation with Syria and Iran and keep the right for estimating all possible risks.

As for Central Asia, Ms. Rice had to experience another failure: neither Kazakhstan, nor Tajikistan agreed to provide their territories for the deployment of the US army base, which had been previously withdrawn from Uzbekistan. The servicemen and personnel of the base will thus have to be moved to Kyrgyzstan. Russian officials said that the USA would be able to keep its military base in Kyrgyzstan as long as it is required for the continuation of the anti-terrorist operation in Afghanistan.

It is worthy of note that Russian officials do not understand the requirement of their US colleagues to grant access to international experts for the investigation of recent events in the Uzbek town of Andijan. Russia is certain that the government of Uzbekistan is capable of handling its internal matters alone.

According to the US Secretary of State, there are no forbidden grounds for Russia and the USA, that is probably why Condoleezza Rice touched upon the issue of the current situation in another state of the former USSR, Belarus. It is an open secret that the US administration urged all democratic states to decline contacts with Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko. Ukrainian politicians, for example, prefer not to follow the American instructions: they still visit the country's capital, Minsk, when necessary.

Moscow and Washington obviously have different approaches in their estimations of certain international political issues. Apparently, Ms. Rice had to hastily change her plans and visit Moscow not to let these discrepancies grow and lead to serious consequences in US-Russian relations. One may not say that the USA enjoys stable international positions at present moment. To crown it all, the US administration cannot afford ruining relations with Russia, which has a huge influence on the majority of its neighbors.

Condoleezza Rice was trying to prove to the Russian administration that there was absolutely no need for Iran to develop even a peace nuclear program.

Probably she would have got another response if she had offered another alike contract. Her proposal isn't businesslike and the contract's worth about $1bln.

The nuclear power plant in Iran's Bushehr, Rice said, may become the site to produce weapons of mass destruction.

This is a lightwater reactor and the spent fuel is to be returned to Russia. How do you see enriching uranium in such provosions or how the Iranians can violate them?

Condoleezza Rice was trying to prove to the Russian administration that there was absolutely no need for Iran to develop even a peace nuclear program.

Probably she would have got another response if she had offered another alike contract. Her proposal isn't businesslike and the contract's worth about $1bln.

The nuclear power plant in Iran's Bushehr, Rice said, may become the site to produce weapons of mass destruction.

This is a lightwater reactor and the spent fuel is to be returned to Russia. How do you see enriching uranium in such provosions or how the Iranians can violate them?

"This is a lightwater reactor and the spent fuel is to be returned to Russia. How do you see enriching uranium in such provosions or how the Iranians can violate them?"

I do remember seeing a small article a year ago how Iran was supposed to have sent back spent fuel to Russia, but because Iran 'refused to pay' Russia for the services, the material stayed in Iran. A similar scenerio will develop once the reactor goes live, I am sure.

I think their is more to this then 1Bn contract to Russia. To me, having a nuclear Iran keeps us off balance. It is a counterweight to Iraq and Afghanistan. It is a dangerous game they are playing and one they will no doubt regret one day.

I do remember seeing a small article a year ago how Iran was supposed to have sent back spent fuel to Russia, but because Iran 'refused to pay' Russia for the services, the material stayed in Iran. A similar scenerio will develop once the reactor goes live, I am sure.

So a deposit may be demanded from Iran. BTW, are you sure that the reactors supplied to Iran can breed enriched material? If even the rods are left in Iran, they should build an enrichment factory which has all sorts of sophisticated and bulky machinery.

I think their is more to this then 1Bn contract to Russia. To me, having a nuclear Iran keeps us off balance. It is a counterweight to Iraq and Afghanistan. It is a dangerous game they are playing and one they will no doubt regret one day.

I think regretting about Pakistan is also quite possible: e.g. they have nukes as well as India and have a very cool relationship. The Pakistan's athorities also manage their country.. not that well.

The Busher contract is 30000 jobs for Russia.

"So a deposit may be demanded from Iran. BTW, are you sure that the reactors supplied to Iran can breed enriched material? If even the rods are left in Iran, they should build an enrichment factory which has all sorts of sophisticated and bulky machinery."

Yes, the reactor will be able to produce fissle material used in nuclear weapons. Uranium bombs require a lot of material and produce small KT weapons. However, it only requires one to be produced and used via proxy in a city like NYC or LA to decimate our entire way of life.

"I think regretting about Pakistan is also quite possible: e.g. they have nukes as well as India and have a very cool relationship. The Pakistan's athorities also manage their country.. not that well."

Yeah, that is true but they already had nukes in 1998 and the delivery vehicle (missles). Iran does not have the fissle material to produce a stockpile of weapons. I have to say I give a lot of credit to Musharref. He has had noe less then five assasination attempts on his life, because he is trying to do what is right for his country. Once he retires from his current post, it is highly rumored he will accept a military post. I assume this is to retain control of the nuclear assets of the country to prevent proliferation or a nut job being allowed to push the button.

"The Busher contract is 30000 jobs for Russia."

What do you mean?

Yes, the reactor will be able to produce fissle material used in nuclear weapons.

"Natural uranium is only 0.7% U-235, the fissionable isotope... The uranium fuel for fission reactors will not make a bomb; it takes enrichment to over 90% to obtain the fast chain reaction necessary for weapons applications... The uranium is usually enriched to 2.5-3.5% U-235 for use in U.S. light water reactors, while the heavy water Canadian reactors typically use natural uranium." (I assume Russian-made reactors use the same fuel as the US's.) "Enrichment to 15-30% is typical for breeder reactors"

Source

About breeder reactors

So Iran receives light-water reactors, fuel for them (say, 3.5% U-235). But they haven't received enrichment equipment as well as enriched enough fuel for breeding.

"Uranium enrichment has historically been accomplished by making the compound uranium hexaflouride and diffusing it through a long pathway of porous material (like kilometers!) and making use of the slightly higher diffusion rate of the lighter U-235 compound. There have been tests of centrifugal separators, but modern efforts are directed toward laser enrichment procedures."

That's what the bulky machinery is.

Yeah, that is true but they already had nukes in 1998 and the delivery vehicle (missles). Iran does not have the fissle material to produce a stockpile of weapons. I have to say I give a lot of credit to Musharref. He has had noe less then five assasination attempts on his life, because he is trying to do what is right for his country. Once he retires from his current post, it is highly rumored he will accept a military post. I assume this is to retain control of the nuclear assets of the country to prevent proliferation or a nut job being allowed to push the button.

Well, if Mushareff has survived [as many as] five assasination attempts he probably won't survive the sixth or the seventh. This means he has strong opposition in his country which is, obviously, anti-American Islamists.

What do you mean?

That's the number of people in Russia working on this contract. That's why I've said that the Ms. Rice's proposal wasn't of business nature. If she had offered another $1bln contract for building a nuclear power plant in a country acceptable for the U.S. in exchange of stopping the Iran's one, this offer would have been worth considering.

And, if the USA has offered such a deal, and Russia has refused it, the USA would have had the full right to say the Russian reason have been of political nature.

"That's the number of people in Russia working on this contract. That's why I've said that the Ms. Rice's proposal wasn't of business nature. If she had offered another $1bln contract for building a nuclear power plant in a country acceptable for the U.S. in exchange of stopping the Iran's one, this offer would have been worth considering.

And, if the USA has offered such a deal, and Russia has refused it, the USA would have had the full right to say the Russian reason have been of political nature."

Thanks for the info on the above. I agree, their really is not much of a carrot in front of the Russians.

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