The Leaves Won't Be The Only Thing To Fall! (Market Crash Prediction)

321Gold ^ | Oct 17, 2005 | Enrico Orlandini

[Travis McGee]

The October Newsletter The Leaves Won't Be The Only Thing To Fall! Enrico Orlandini Lasco Report 17 Oct, 2005

We're heading into that time of year where the word "crash" tends to command a bit more respect among market specialists, i.e., the months of October and/or November. Maybe it's just a coincidence, but I see an ominous cloud on the horizon. Actually, I see a large mass of clouds and they're as black as night. Anyone who's invested in the stock market over the last three or four years has little or nothing to show for it and, if you're still invested, you can't be feeling too comfortable right now. In short, a simple saving account would have been a better investment. Then again, when you buy into a market that's selling at 20 times earnings and paying a miniscule 1.75% dividend, what can you expect? Two weeks ago I warned my clients about the "probability", not the possibility, of a crash. What did I see that made me so worried that I would crawl out on a limb all by myself? Frankly, there were and still are any number of warning signals, and I would like to delve into some of them in the space provided below.

The first such warning sign comes from the market itself. Focus your attention on the following daily chart of the cash DJIA and follow along:

Lots of charts and analysis follows, HERE

[Travis McGee]

I think this is a good departure point for serious discussion of where our national economy is heading....which many believe may be off of a cliff.

[cripplecreek]

I'm not wearing rose colored glasses.

[martin_fierro]

[HamiltonJay]

Alf went on to do Hollywood Squares, and all I got was this lousy Chuck E Cheese token.

[johnny7]

...and lead.

[SoFloFreeper]

Gee, these people at "321Gold" wouldn't be selling GOLD by any chance, would they??

[sarasota]

I'm here to dispel the notions that those who've "invested in the last three to four years have nothing to show for it". Where are these people putting their money? And with whom?

[kittymyrib]

The new bankruptcy laws will definitely cut down on credit purchases and the Christmas season spending numbers will certainly be down for this reason, as well as the astronomically high gas and heating oil bills in Dec.

[Boundless]

The trouble with gold is that when it really pays off,
it means that everything else has gone down the toilet.

... except during the run-up to and just after
legalization in the 1970s. That had real profit
potential (in case you own a time machine :-)

[drt1]

While I don't think a Crash is in order (But could happen given the right trigger) I don't see how it can advance in the face of the Fed, Energy costs, political disarray in DC and the Fiscal debacle. I see more of a trading range with a downward trend to the highs and lows of that range.

[Protagoras]

[blam]

My $402.00 each Kruggerands are looking good these days.

[vrwc0915]

A fire broke out Sunday inside a refinery along the Houston Ship Channel as workers were bringing the plant back into production following a shutdown from Hurricane Rita, officials said. The refinery covers almost 700 acres along the Houston Ship Channel and can produce about 268,000 barrels daily.

From chron.com

At least 16 Texas oil refineries remained shut down after Rita, which came ashore early Saturday at Sabine Pass, about 30 miles from Beaumont. A refinery in Port Arthur and one in Beaumont were without power, and a second Port Arthur refinery was damaged and could remain out of service for two to four weeks. "We didn't dodge a bullet with Rita; we took a couple bullets in the legs with Katrina and Rita," said Tom Kloza, an analyst with the Oil Price Information Service of Wall, N.J. "It's still a significant loss, and it's going to create some supply problems through at least mid-October." Early estimates were that Hurricane Rita will cost U.S. refiners about 800,000 barrels a day in capacity, on top of a drop about 900,000 barrels a day because of Katrina. Kloza said the national average for a gallon of regular gasoline could again top $3.

[Protagoras]

[kinghorse]

I'm no financial savant but you would have to be an idiot to compare today to the caveman like 70's. Gold bugs are such smug jerks. At least the one's I know. It's like going Vegas and watching the guys who bet the Don't Come. Same feelings for gold bugs.

[Travis McGee]

Economic free-for-all discussion ping.

[Protagoras]

[dennisw]

Autumn is a time for self reflection and evaluation. The leaves fall. Vegetation dies off

Stock market dives are common in the fall.

[NeilGus]

Hey, thjese guys are good. The have predicted 100 of the last three major stock market drops.

[Travis McGee]

So are mine.

But like guns, fire extinguishers and insurance, I hope we never REALLY need them.

But I'd rather have them and not need them, than have my kids stand in the soup line in a FEMA camp.

[vrwc0915]

My investement picks:

Ceramics

Brass,Copper,Lead,Charcoal

[Vivaldi's Manifesto]

Anyone know what Bob Brinker has to say about the market in his most recent newsletter?

-vm

[LurkingSince'98]

If you look at a chart of silver for the last month- the trend is up as is the one year and five year charts same for gold. You don't need to be a gold bug to participate in the largest run-up in gold an silver in the last twenty years.

It's ok if you don't because someone else will.
Regards,
Lurking'

[Zechariah11]

BINGO!

[Sthitch]

Gold bugs are such smug jerks. At least the one's I know.

I am sure that no matter how hard you look you will not find one that does not fit your opinion. I do see another round of stock devaluation, but I believe that it is going to be akin to 2000, not 1987. The P/E ratios of many of the tech companies (read Google) are just not realistic. Other industries are in much better shape.

[D.P.Roberts]

Point well made. And remember the best time to be rich is in a depression. If you're a good guy, you can help others with charity or providing jobs. And if you're not, well, EVERYTHING is for sale at knockout prices.

[Petronski]

We're all doomed. Doomed! DOOMED!!!

[wagglebee]

Why is an advertisement to buy gold being treated as if it is "news"? Of course this guy thinks the sky is falling.

[Dallas59]

[Petronski]

Is that a photo of Bob Prechter?

[LurkingSince'98]

hey waggle,

did you read the referenced article?????

I has nothing to do with some guy from Law and Order selling gold, nothing at all.

did you follow the link???? did you see the charts?? can you read a chart??

if so what are they saying to you?

what is the primary trend in your opinion?

Inquiring minds want to hear your analysis not a cheap shot.

Regards,
Lurking'

[CROSSHIGHWAYMAN]

Anyone who's invested in the stock market over the last three or four years has little or nothing to show for it

Old Travis aint playin with a full deck.

2003 was a wonderful year and the small caps only started pulling back in August.

His statement is amateurish poo!!

[NormsRevenge]

Krugerrands? ;-)

Nyaahhhhh..

[murdoog]

"Crash" is a very emotionally charged word and I don't think it's the right one here. A crash usually comes when a market is at it's peak and we have been drifting downward for a while now.

But there is reason for pessimism about the market. We have had a cyclical bull market in a secular bear market for a good while now. Throw in interest rates, energy prices, and natural disasters and you have a perfect storm for a bear market. (Which is not the same thing as a crash).

I am slowly getting out of the market. In my trading portfolio I am selling when I hit sell criteria (stopped out of Zack's Rank >2) and not buying anything new. When it is all gone, I may start slowly buying again. I've also put $2000 into the Prudent Bear fund.

[CROSSHIGHWAYMAN]

Stock market dives are common in the fall.

October has always been the best month to buy stocks!!

[xcamel]

Hooey...The future is un plastics

[LurkingSince'98]

2003 was TWO YEARS AGO!!! what about now?

if you have your savings tied up in equities with no gold or silver as insurance you may find yourself like a lot of others in the 1930s.

Regards,
Lurking'

[Protagoras]

Is that a photo of Bob Prechter?

Could be, I never met the guy.

I've seen quite a few bear markets in my years in the markets, and I've made money in them, but I never claimed to predict them. The trick is to identify them. The rest is much the same as buying in a bull market.

[proxy_user]

My oil stocks have doubled and tripled in the past five years. Plus all the dividends....

How does this compare to gold?

[kinghorse]

If you are getting started now on the advice of people like Cramer, G_d help you. You're gonna get smoked just like the tech dummies during their frenzy period.

[sefarkas]

cut down on credit purchases and the Christmas season spending numbers will certainly be down

Care to share the demographics that support this claim I see EVERY year? Care to define the "Christmas season" in an accounting sorta way? Are there fewer people in America compared to last season? Is there a significant drop in the number of new and existing households that celebrate Christmas with gifts to others? Note that the illegals so bemoaned on other parts of FR are predominantly Catholic. Also note the increasing prominence of gold bugs now that it is up about $200 over the course of a few years. When you start seeing those ads on TV hyping some investment, be sure that some top is near and the insiders are trying to drum-up new buyers into the market -- the regular players are tapped-out or too smart to participate.

[Sleeping Freeper]

Agreed, Oil before gold.

[r9etb]

LOL!

[Moonman62]

The trouble with gold is that when it really pays off, it means that everything else has gone down the toilet.

... except during the run-up to and just after legalization in the 1970s. That had real profit potential (in case you own a time machine :-)

I thought the 1970's were a toilet. The runup in gold and the stagflation was triggered by the collapse of the Bretton Woods foreign exchange system. That collapse was inevitable because in the 1960's LBJ was spending like GWB.

[kinghorse]

:). Now we're talking. Cept I'm taking out on one pocket to put in the other. Does my appreciation in oil stocks offset my pain at the pump and wage hurt from being near the airlines bidness? Not sure about that.

[r9etb]

Thank you, sir. The thread is now complete.

[LurkingSince'98]

the silver I bought at $4.05 in 2003 is at $7.83 as I speak.

You hit the other market Energy as well as other commodities that are in primary bull markets. Most everything else is in a primary bear market.

Regards,
Lurking'

[kinghorse]

Graycliff? hmm. Already priced for perfection :).

[Tijeras_Slim]

Rats... I'm still reading "Dow 36,000".

[E. Pluribus Unum]

So many Armageddons, so little time.