Posted on 10/17/2005 7:59:53 AM PDT by Travis McGee
The October Newsletter The Leaves Won't Be The Only Thing To Fall! Enrico Orlandini Lasco Report 17 Oct, 2005
We're heading into that time of year where the word "crash" tends to command a bit more respect among market specialists, i.e., the months of October and/or November. Maybe it's just a coincidence, but I see an ominous cloud on the horizon. Actually, I see a large mass of clouds and they're as black as night. Anyone who's invested in the stock market over the last three or four years has little or nothing to show for it and, if you're still invested, you can't be feeling too comfortable right now. In short, a simple saving account would have been a better investment. Then again, when you buy into a market that's selling at 20 times earnings and paying a miniscule 1.75% dividend, what can you expect? Two weeks ago I warned my clients about the "probability", not the possibility, of a crash. What did I see that made me so worried that I would crawl out on a limb all by myself? Frankly, there were and still are any number of warning signals, and I would like to delve into some of them in the space provided below.
The first such warning sign comes from the market itself. Focus your attention on the following daily chart of the cash DJIA and follow along:
Lots of charts and analysis follows, HERE
I'm not wearing rose colored glasses.
...and lead.
I'm here to dispel the notions that those who've "invested in the last three to four years have nothing to show for it". Where are these people putting their money? And with whom?
The new bankruptcy laws will definitely cut down on credit purchases and the Christmas season spending numbers will certainly be down for this reason, as well as the astronomically high gas and heating oil bills in Dec.
The trouble with gold is that when it really pays off,
it means that everything else has gone down the toilet.
... except during the run-up to and just after
legalization in the 1970s. That had real profit
potential (in case you own a time machine :-)
My $402.00 each Kruggerands are looking good these days.
From chron.com
At least 16 Texas oil refineries remained shut down after Rita, which came ashore early Saturday at Sabine Pass, about 30 miles from Beaumont. A refinery in Port Arthur and one in Beaumont were without power, and a second Port Arthur refinery was damaged and could remain out of service for two to four weeks. "We didn't dodge a bullet with Rita; we took a couple bullets in the legs with Katrina and Rita," said Tom Kloza, an analyst with the Oil Price Information Service of Wall, N.J. "It's still a significant loss, and it's going to create some supply problems through at least mid-October." Early estimates were that Hurricane Rita will cost U.S. refiners about 800,000 barrels a day in capacity, on top of a drop about 900,000 barrels a day because of Katrina. Kloza said the national average for a gallon of regular gasoline could again top $3.
I'm no financial savant but you would have to be an idiot to compare today to the caveman like 70's. Gold bugs are such smug jerks. At least the one's I know. It's like going Vegas and watching the guys who bet the Don't Come. Same feelings for gold bugs.
Economic free-for-all discussion ping.
Autumn is a time for self reflection and evaluation. The leaves fall. Vegetation dies off
Stock market dives are common in the fall.
Hey, thjese guys are good. The have predicted 100 of the last three major stock market drops.
But like guns, fire extinguishers and insurance, I hope we never REALLY need them.
But I'd rather have them and not need them, than have my kids stand in the soup line in a FEMA camp.
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